What Impact Will Doug Pederson Have On Trevor Lawrence and Jaguars Roster

Coaching Carousel Dynasty Fallout: Jacksonville Jaguars

There’s a whole host of dynasty analysts out there who preach talent over situation. To a degree, they’re correct; elite talent will find a way to shine more often than not, regardless of situation. However, while this is somewhat reliable as a general rule of thumb, elite talent does not guarantee elite production; just ask Odell Beckham about his time in Cleveland. At the end of the day, players are at the mercy of playcalling and scheme. If the gameplan doesn’t call for your Stud McMuffin to touch the ball more than five times, then it doesn’t matter how talented he is; he isn’t going to be an elite fantasy asset capped at five touches per game.

To that end, it’s useful to take a look at who your dynasty assets are playing for. Coaches determine schemes and playcalling and usually last long enough to cover the famed “two-to-three-year window” strategy (especially when they’re newly hired). Looking at the playcalling tendencies of coaches can give you a headstart on buying players who are about to break out or selling players whose stock is about to crash. Both are useful tools for finding success in dynasty leagues.

For this article, our focus will be on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Coaching Change

After an abrupt and unceremonious end to the ill-fated Urban Meyer era, Jacksonville owner Shad Khan brings in former Super Bowl champion Doug Pederson to take over his Jaguars team. Normally we’d wait a bit to see how the rest of the coaching staff shapes up before digging into the nitty-gritty of the fantasy impact, but in this case Pederson is known for calling plays himself. Since offensive coordinator is mostly a ceremonial position under Pederson, we can jump straight into Pederson’s own history calling the shots.

Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence

Trevor Lawrence was regarded as a near-generational prospect coming into the league, so his rookie performance was…disappointing. Of course, an unstable head coach, lack of protection, and injuries to the few weapons the team had probably didn’t help things. Whether Jacksonville can fix the latter two problems remains to be seen, but at least Pederson has some success to his name. More to the point, Pederson’s RPO-heavy offense should be a good fit for Lawrence, who piloted a similar offense at Clemson to great success. Digging a little deeper, Pederson’s Philadelphia offenses typically finished slightly more pass-happy than league average, which means Lawrence should see a respectable floor in terms of passing volume. The RPO-heavy offense should also lead to plenty of rushing opportunities for Lawrence, who has shown at least moderate success running the ball both in college and the pros.

Philadelphia Eagles’ pass rate by year under Doug Pederson compared to league average pass rate

Expect Trevor Lawrence’s needle to start pointing up under Pederson’s tutelage. How quickly and how far it goes up, however, will depend on Jacksonville’s ability to build an actual NFL team around their young QB. Technically this makes Lawrence a modest buy candidate in dynasty leagues, but you’d probably be hard-pressed to get a good deal on him after his owner likely just spent the 2021 1st overall pick on him in superflex leagues. Sunk cost fallacy may sink your chances of getting him on the cheap.

Running Backs: James Robinson, Travis Etienne

The outlook for running backs under Doug Pederson is not so rosy. His offense tends to lean slightly pass heavy (as noted above), but even more critical is that Pederson loves his running back by committee (RBBC) approach. It was already expected that James Robinson and Travis Etienne would have to split time when healthy, so the potential for even more RBs to encroach on their playing time is rather disheartening. Their one potential saving grace is that Pederson’s Eagles teams were never blessed with consistent, high-level RB play. In Pederson’s five years at the helm of the Eagles (80 total games), here are the RBs who played the most games for him:

• Corey Clement – 46 games
• Wendell Smallwood – 37 games
• Darren Sproles – 30 games (33 years old in Pederson’s first year)
• Miles Sanders – 28 games
• Boston Scott – 27 games

That’s not exactly a star-studded list. James Robinson and Travis Etienne make for a better one-two punch than any backfield Pederson had in Philadelphia. Bear in mind that Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard were good enough to warrant a nearly exclusive “thunder and lightning” dual role. It shouldn’t be hard for Robinson and Etienne to maintain a similar stranglehold on the RBBC when healthy.

Of course, the “when healthy” part is a doozy here. At least Etienne should be fully healthy when the 2022 season rolls around after missing all of 2021 rehabbing from lisfranc surgery. Per a 2016 study, lisfranc injuries tend to involve long rehab periods but don’t usually lead to lasting impacts on career production. That study was built using a composite of lisfranc injuries from 2000-2010, so it’s fair to say that recent leaps in medicine should all but guarantee a healthy return for Etienne. Robinson’s path back is a little trickier. Achilles tears had been a death knell for athletes in all sports until very recently. Cases like Cam Akers raise hope that Robinson could make a full, quick recovery, but there’s still no guarantee.

The bottom line here is that James Robinson and Travis Etienne are likely both modest sell candidates at their current value. Robinson’s production these last two seasons has been derived from operating as a true workhorse back, which is unlikely to continue when competing with a healthy Etienne in a Doug Pederson RBBC. He’s probably looking at about 150 carries and 20-30 targets per year moving forward, assuming he’s healthy. This should translate to a mid-rookie 2nd round pick in terms of value. The difficult part will be finding someone willing to even pay that much given the stigma of Achilles tears. Etienne at least boasts potential upside if Robinson is unable to come back at full strength, but even then history suggests that Pederson will not allow Etienne to dominate backfield work. If you can sell him for anything more than the mid-1st he was likely drafted with, I would take it.

Wide Receivers: Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, Jamal Agnew

So, um, well…these are, in fact, wide receivers. “Why are these the three listed”, you ask? Well, because most everyone else is slated to be a free agent. The Jaguars do boast the second highest projected cap space in 2022 along with plenty of draft capital, so there are likely to be some changes before the season starts. However, for the sake of this exercise, we’ll pretend for a second here that these three will actually be the week 1 starters for the Jaguars in 2022.

If that scenario comes to pass, the trio of Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, and Jamal Agnew surprisingly might not be that much of a downgrade from what Pederson worked with in Philadelphia. His receiving corps there featured the likes of a washed up Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor, Jordan Matthews, and Greg Ward, along with a whole slew of notable Eagles draft busts. This hodgepodge group of wideouts collectively commanded over a 50% target share just once in five years. For reference, the league average during that time frame never dipped below 55%. If that isn’t scary enough for you, consider that only two wide receivers notched a 100 target season under Pederson; Matthews in 2016 and Jeffery in 2017.

Philadelphia Eagles’ composite WR target share by year under Doug Pederson compared to league average

Now, there is one glimmer of hope for anyone holding onto a Jaguars receiver. A major reason why the Eagles wideouts commanded such a low target share year after year was because of the presence of elite tight end talents Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Quite frankly, Jacksonville doesn’t have any tight end talent even remotely in the same ballpark. This should push targets back to the wide receivers since there wouldn’t be such a large talent gap between the two positions.

Even so, it’s hard to consider any Jaguars receiver a strong buy candidate right now. As noted above, there is a very good chance that Jones, Shenault, and Agnew will face serious competition for starting reps heading into the 2022 season. Additionally, it is not at all unreasonable to expect Pederson to pursue tight end talent in free agency as his scheme has historically leaned heavily on talented receiving tight ends, much like his mentor Andy Reid. Perhaps you could buy Agnew or Shenault for a rookie 3rd or 4th round pick (which are usually dart throws anyway), but I wouldn’t go out of my way to buy either. I certainly wouldn’t pay up for an older veteran like Jones. Conversely, I would sell Agnew or Shenault for a 2nd in a heartbeat, and Jones I would sell for just about anything I could get at this point.

Tight Ends: Dan Arnold

As noted above, it’s fairly likely that Pederson will enter this offseason searching for tight end upgrades on the free agent market. There are certainly plenty of talented veterans to choose from, including Zach Ertz, who starred for Pederson in Philadelphia. However, if he chooses to build with youth instead of bringing in a potentially pricy veteran, he will have Dan Arnold already in house. Arnold is no superstar, but the undrafted free agent has produced when called upon. He should be good enough to allow Pederson to continue featuring the position, albeit perhaps not to the tune of consistent 30% target shares year after year.

Philadelphia Eagles’ composite TE target share by year under Doug Pederson compared to league average

If Arnold manages to hold onto his projected starting role, he would easily be worth a rookie 3rd round pick, especially in Tight End Premium leagues. If you’re aiming to compete, he might even be worth a late 2nd as a security blanket for a young QB in a TE-friendly scheme. However, there’s a reason Jacksonville is Arnold’s 4th team in as many years. He’s certainly not a special talent and is easily replaceable if Jacksonville decides to bring in superior talent. With no guarantee that Arnold will even hold onto the starting role this year, much less future years, it’s difficult to pay a premium no matter how good his situation looks.

The Big Picture

The Jaguars’ long term outlook under Doug Pederson is a bit of a mixed bag. QB Trevor Lawrence is a buy, RBs James Robinson and Travis Etienne are sells, but none of them rate very strongly at their current price points. I want nothing to do with the Jaguars receiving corps, and that extends to anyone Jacksonville brings in through free agency or the draft (with a possible exception to any veritable studs). The one position that could provide sneaky value for bargain hunters is tight end. Dan Arnold should be a low end TE1 as long as he’s able to hold onto the starting role. Same goes for anyone Pederson goes out of his way to bring in, should he choose to go that route. Just be careful not to overpay until we know who the starting tight end will be for the foreseeable future.