Calvin Ridley Fantasy Impact in 2019

Calvin Ridley Fantasy

The 2014 NFL draft class has been seen as the gold standard in recent memory for rookie season receiving production. The bar was set high with Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Jordan Matthews, and Kelvin Benjamin all-surpassing 800 receiving yards and six touchdowns in their rookie season. Since that class, the expectations of rookie wide receivers have risen considerably with the vast majority unable to live up to these lofty expectations. After 2014 only one wide receiver from each class has crossed the previous mentioned statistical threshold with Amari Cooper (2015), Michael Thomas (2016), Juju Smith-Schuster (2017), and, yes you guessed it, Calvin Ridley all accomplishing this feat. Calvin Ridley was highly touted walking out of the 2018 NFL draft with his status as a first-round draft pick (26th overall). Unlike many other rookie hopefuls, Ridley lived up to his draft pedigree finishing his first year as the 22nd ranked wide receiver in point per reception (PPR) scoring. As impressive as his first year was Ridley looks primed to take a step forward in his second season.  

Changing of the Guard

The Atlanta Falcons offense has been a roller coaster in some aspects over the last two seasons. In 2017 the offense slumped badly mired in a year-long Kyle Shanahan hangover falling to 15th or worse in overall scoring, passing touchdowns, and rushing touchdowns. Even a bounce-back 2018 that saw Steve Sarkisian coordinate the passing offense to top-five finishes in passing yards (4th), passing touchdowns (3rd), and interceptions (2nd) could not save his job ultimately. In steps a man quite familiar with running an offense in Dirty Bird country in Dirk Koetter. Koetter previously served as the Falcons offensive coordinator from 2012-2014. In five of the last seven seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator, Koetter’s offenses have finished in the top eight in passing attempts and passing yards. Koetter’s return is a boon for Calvin Ridley in 2019. 

In various projection models, Calvin Ridley is due to receive a spike from the 92 targets he received in 2018. During much of Koetter’s history and his tenure in Atlanta, the targets were strongly concentrated to the top two wide receivers on the depth chart. During 2012 and 2014 when Julio Jones and Roddy White both played in at least 14 games, those top two wideouts accounted for 45.3 percent of the passing targets. Matt Ryan has finished with 600 or more passing attempts in five of his last seven seasons including averaging 631 attempts under Koetter. Julio Jones has averaged 159 targets and roughly a 28 percent target share in the previous two seasons. If Koetter continues his funneling ways and Ryan finishes between 600-631 passing attempts that would put Ridley on pace for roughly 104-108 targets if Ridley does not eat into Julio’s target share at all. Ridley would project for approximately 113-126 targets if Julio falls in line closer to his 159 average and Ridley does nibble away at Julio’s target dominance. 

Last season Mohamed Sanu was the second wide receiver on the Falcons depth chart. While Ridley and Sanu finished in lock step with 92 and 94 targets respectively, Sanu dominated the snaps by playing the most wide receiver snaps on the team with 830 versus Ridley’s 644. Ridley will be the wide receiver two for the Falcons in 2019 because outside of snap count he has already outplayed Sanu. In 2018 per Playerprofiler.com Ridley was the more efficient player on a per target basis besting Sanu in quarterback rating when targeted (129.0 vs. 111.9), target separation (1.84 yards vs. 1.52 yards), and fantasy points per target (2.25 vs. 1.92). With the limited exception of zone coverage, per the Quant Edge WR/CB tool, Ridley was the better receiver. Ridley surpassed Sanu in quarterback rating and catch rate versus both man and press coverage. Ridley showed last season he can succeed all over the formation with only 24 percent of his snaps spent in the slot. Sanu, however, spent over 70 percent of his time in the slot. Considering both Ridley’s performance in 2018 and his versatility he will be the Falcons wide receiver two in 2019. 

Per The Quant Edge WR/CB Tool

My take for 2019

As outlined previously, Calvin Ridley is in line for an increase in his target share in 2019. With Ridley scoring, ten touchdowns in 2018 the touchdown regression argument is a real one with merit. Touchdowns are among the hardest statistics to predict year to year because not only do they rely upon volume but also the efficiency with said volume. Looking back at Koetter’s last season as offensive coordinator in Atlanta (2014), he funneled 38.6 percent of the red zone targets through the top two wide receivers with that volume essentially split down the middle (Roddy White 14, Julio Jones 13). Ridley out targeted Sanu last season in the red zone (9 to 6 targets) so expecting that to repeat again in 2019 is not a massive intuitive leap considering that Ridley also converted 66 percent of those opportunities into scores. Matt Ryan has averaged 76 passing attempts in the red zone over the last two seasons. With consideration to Julio Jones previous year (2018) red zone target volume and Koetter’s use of his top two wideouts, Ridley will be in line for approximately 12 red zone targets. Even if Ridley’s efficiency drops off considerably in the red zone and he is unable to add any explosive plays to his touchdown resume he can be roughly projected for seven touchdowns in 2019. With previous target expectations for 2019 factored in and his yards per reception remaining marginally consistent Calvin Ridley’s 2019 Projection stands at:

Over the last five years at this projection, Calvin Ridley would have been the WR20/21 in four of those years. This projection offers some growth potential for Ridley heading into his second year, but if his role grows further or his year one efficiency remains, he will surpass this projection quite handily. Ridley is best viewed as a mid/lower end WR2 for 2019 with tremendous upside to possibly finish as a fringe WR1.