Golf Betting Tips
It’s the first big tournament of the 2021-2022 season with THE CJ CUP rolling into Las Vegas – the second straight week for Vegas golf, and how can you not love it! This tournament has only had four previous installments – the first three were played in South Korea at Nine Bridges, Shadow Creek in Vegas was last year’s destination, and this year sees The Summit Club play host. We have 78 players who are set to do battle in Sin City, and every player will get all four rounds in provided none withdraw.
There’s $9.75M available to be won this week, the winner takes home $1.755M and also earns 500 FedEx Cup points. The Summit Club features a track that’s 7,431 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are bentgrass which is the same surface as last week. The average winning score at this tournament since its inception in 2017 is -17.5, but this week sees a brand new course for the players, so it’s hard to accurately predict the winning score – I would say -20 seems like a good guess – the same as last year when Jason Kokrak put that number up at Shadow Creek. The tournament record at this event is held by Brooks Koepka who shot a -21 three years ago in South Korea. Place bets on golfers this week who are excellent on approach, can hit a long ball, are solid off the tee, can putt well on bentgrass, and who are good around the greens when called upon.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding THE CJ CUP this week:
1. Will one of the best players win? So far in the tournament’s history, we have seen two elite players win including Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas who has won it twice. Jason Kokrak’s victory was a bit surprising last year, but keep in mind that he had played Shadow Creek several times prior, and that gave him the confidence and course knowledge needed to win the trophy. I have to think that one of the top 5 or top 10 golfers will win this week, but it is golf and anything can happen.
2. Go hard after Las Vegas regulars? Whenever there’s a new course that hasn’t been competed at on the PGA Tour, I’m always tempted to take players who have previous course experience. I was fairly big on Harry Hall and Scott Piercy last week, both are members of TPC Summerlin – one finished T8 and one missed the cut, and the more successful one certainly wasn’t the veteran. It can go either way with players who you think have the leg up on the competition by being a member – some golfers stumble and some thrive.
3. Which version of these two will we get this year? I can’t figure out Collin Morikawa and Brooks Koepka lately, both were sizzling hot not too long ago, but now they are both in mini-slumps and potentially still a bit banged up. It’s just a matter of time before they both get into contention again, but timing it is the hard part as it could come this week, or maybe not until The Masters next April. We know that both golfers love to perform in the big tournaments, Koepka did win this tournament three years ago, and there’s no cut line for them to worry about, so they can go full out and not have to worry about going home on Friday evening.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Justin Thomas (+1200) – Thomas is the most successful CJ CUP player in its short four-year history with two victories when it was held at Nine Bridges in South Korea, and he has been strong lately as well with a T4 and a 4th in his last three starts thanks to his rock-solid irons. He tends to be a golfer that excels during small field, elite talent situations, and that’s what we have on tap this week. He hasn’t won since THE PLAYERS Championship in March, and you know he has to be itching to put up another win sooner rather than later. I think you can bet JT to win, place top 5, or top 10 this week depending on how much you’re looking to win and how much risk you’re willing to take on.
Sam Burns (+2200) – Perhaps the world’s hottest player right now was back in contention to win again last week but his final round of 72 resulted in a T14 finish. He won just two starts ago at the Sanderson Farms Championship with 26 birdies on the week, he won the Valspar Championship in May, and had three top 8’s before winning two weeks ago including a 2nd and a T2 during that span. His stats look quite good, we are just waiting for his putter to heat up again and watch out when it does as he has been very good off the tee and on approach, and not too shabby around the greens either. I don’t think I would bet him to win this week, but you could do a top 5, a top 10, or a top 20 if you want to be quite conservative and mitigate risk.
Avoid: Jordan Spieth (+2000) – He was absolutely dialed in between February and early August, but his last three starts have made him look much more human with a 73rd at THE NORTHERN TRUST, a T34 at the BMW Championship, and a T20 at the Tour Championship. He has been losing strokes over these last three events off the tee and on approach and has been relying on a short game that hasn’t been overly solid either to produce mediocre results. This is his first start of the season and he should be well-rested and has had lots of time to get his reps in, so he could be back in outstanding form again, but I think it’s worth seeing what this week holds for Spieth and then re-evaluating the next time he plays.
+2600 to +5000
Viktor Hovland (+2800) – When you think ball-striker, one of the first names that likely comes to mind is Hovland as he’s one of the best in the world, and once he fixes his short game he will be in contention to win almost every week he plays. He could have easily had a top 10 last week at the Shriners, but he lost 8.91 strokes around the greens (a career-worst) and he had to settle for a T44. Prior though, he had a T5 at the Tour Championship, he won late last year in Mexico, and he regularly puts up teen finishes even when his chipping and putting are less than average. I expect to see a nice rebound week from Hovland this week, and believe you can bet him to finish top 5, top 10, or top 20 according to how bullish you are on the young stud.
Sungjae Im (+3000) – I don’t normally like to bet on players who are coming off the win from the week before, but we are in a small field with no cut line, so I think it’s fine to roll out Im again this week after his victory at Shriners this past Sunday. He had a complete game in Vegas last week where he gained 8.00 strokes on ball-striking, 8.01 with his short game, 10.49 tee to green, and 16.01 total. He has six straight top 30’s including his 3rd at the BMW Championship and his win a couple of days ago, so you can safely bet him to finish top 20 or top 30 if you want to play it safer.
Avoid: Tommy Fleetwood (+5000) – I don’t understand why he gets more respect than lots of other golfers who are much better than him, but Fleetwood seems to be a darling of sportsbooks and DFS companies. He doesn’t have a top 10 since THE PLAYERS Championship in March on the PGA Tour, but he does seem to play a lot better in Europe as he has three consecutive top 12’s on that Tour including a 2nd at the Italian Open early last month. His stats have been quite ugly for a while now, and there’s no reason to bet on him unless you make wagers on the European Tour where he plays half-decent half the time.
+5100 to +10000
Talor Gooch (+6500) – Strong approach players always get my attention and respect, and Gooch is one of the better approach players on the PGA Tour as he consistently gains strokes in the important stat category including gaining 5.65 last week at the Shriners to finish T11, and he gained across the board two starts ago at the Fortinet Championship to finish T4. I think you can easily bet him to finish top 20 or top 30, or you can venture into top 10 territory if you smell another big ball-striking week for him along with a good short game.
Aaron Wise (+6000) – I like what Wise offers as he’s a complete player who plays well throughout his bag, and that has resulted in some fine finishes recently including a T8 last week, two top 21’s in the first two legs of the playoffs last season, and his T9 at the Memorial Tournament showed us that he can compete with the big boys in fairly large events. I like him as a top 20 bet this week, or you could do a top 30 if you want to play a bit tighter with your cash flow.
Avoid: Patrick Reed (+6500) – Outside of an above-average short game recently, his off the tee and approach numbers have been terrible over his last five starts, and he actually lost strokes in all major stat categories last week including on the greens which is rare for Reed. He doesn’t have a top 20 since June, and that will continue this week if he can’t get hot with his short game.
+11000 and higher
Kevin Streelman (+13000) – He went through a great stretch of play where he was consistently posting top 10’s and top 20’s from May to August – he has cooled off since his T7 at the Wyndham Championship in mid-August, but keeps making cuts and has finished no worse than T64 over his last four tournaments played and two of them were playoff events last season. His stats are spotty right now, but I expect him to turn things up a notch starting this week and he should do fine as long as his approach game holds up. I think you can bet him to finish top 30, but I wouldn’t throw down too much on him.
Erik van Rooyen (+13000) – He really gained steam when he won the Barracuda Championship six starts ago in early August, then he went on to have an excellent playoff with two top 7’s including a 5th at the BMW Championship where he gained 6.53 strokes with his approach game. He missed the cut last week, so he could either go into another cold spell or rebound this week – hard to say, but he might be worth a top 20 or a top 30 wager.
Avoid: Rickie Fowler (+15000) – Fowler got a bunch of respect last week prior to the start of the tournament, but now he has lost all of it as he missed the cut due to poor play all-around. His putting was traditionally very strong at TPC Summerlin, but he only gained 0.47 strokes and his ball-striking was less than the field average. He doesn’t have a top 20 since his T11 at the Memorial Tournament in June, and it’s hard to say when his next one will come. The only thing working for Fowler right now is that he’s exempt through next season on the PGA Tour, but beyond that, his career is in murky water right now and there’s no clarity in sight.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
