Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour heads west from Phoenix, Arizona, to Pacific Palisades, California, for The Genesis Invitational, an event that dates back to 1926 when it was known as the Los Angeles Open. We have 120 players in the field this week, and the top 65 golfers plus ties after round 2 on Friday will move on to play round 3 on Saturday and round 4 on Sunday.
There’s a ridiculous $12M to be won this week, the winner bank $2.16M and also picks up 500 FedEx Cup points. Riviera Country Club is 7,322 yards in length, is a par 71, and the large greens feature poa annua. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten years is -12.0, so it’s a tricky test of golf. The -20 tournament record is held by Lanny Wadkins who captured that in the year 1985 to win by a whopping 7 strokes. Place bets on golfers this week who are solid around the greens, hit a long ball off the tee, sound on approach, putt well, especially on poa annua greens, and have a strong tee to green game.
Increase your odds for winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding The Genesis Invitational this week:
1. Is it too tempting to bet more than five players outright? There is a pile of talent in the field this week, and it would be easy to bet ten players to win, but try to be more selective and narrow it down to five or less since you don’t want to over-hedge yourself out of a decent potential profit margin. Treat this tournament like it’s a major, and follow your betting rules when it comes to elite fields like those.
2. Where are the biggest discrepancies between betting and simulator odds? If you use a golf data website that compares betting odds to simulator odds, then you’re a value seeker which is a smart philosophy to have. From what I’m seeing, the best player betting values are Seamus Power, Maverick McNealy, Talor Gooch, Adam Scott, and Russell Henley.
3. How much does course history matter this week? We tend to see a mixed bag of outcomes at this event, so you may not want to lean super-heavy on past results. Bubba Watson, for example, has won this tournament three times, but has also missed the cut five times and has withdrawn twice since 2007.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Patrick Cantlay (+1000) – The Cali-sensation has been pure fire since winning the final two playoff events last season with six consecutive top 9’s and he has finished no lower than T23 over his last eight outings. Cantlay is a supreme ball-striker and has no weaknesses whatsoever. He has four straight top 17’s here including a T4 in his first look in 2018, and has gained no fewer than 4.38 strokes ball-striking every time. He makes for a great outright bet this week, or bet him to finish top 5 or top 10 if you want to be more conservative as I believe his top 9 streak will extend to seven straight starts this week.
Dustin Johnson (+1600) – The 2017 winner has been outstanding at this tournament over the years with ten top 10’s in fourteen starts since 2008. Johnson has been good lately as well with five top 10’s in his last nine starts, and while his ball-striking has been off lately, I expect it to be on point this week since his stats are remarkable at Riviera. I like him as a top 10 bet this week and you should too.
Avoid: Cameron Smith (+2200) – Smith has been decent at this event in six starts with two top 6’s, but he also has a missed cut and his other three finishes range from T28 to T63. It’s very difficult to fade any of the elite players in this range, but I’m picking on the Aussie since I believe he’s just a tad below the others around him talent-wise.
+2600 to +5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+3500) – The Englishman has four straight top 12’s including a T10 last week at the Phoenix Open where he gained strokes across the board including 6.89 ball-striking. He has only played this tournament twice, but had a T30 two years ago and a T5 last year thanks to playing a solid game throughout his bag. I think you can bet him to finish top 5, top 10, or top 20 depending on how bullish you are on Fitzpatrick this week.
Max Homa (+5000) – Homa is the defending champ, is a Los Angeles native, and tends to play his best golf in his home state of California. He also had a T5 here two years ago, and has been solid over the last three years in every stat category. He hasn’t been playing his best golf lately, but is coming off a T14 last week in Arizona thanks to being sound off the tee and with his putter. Much like Fitzpatrick above, you can bet him any way you feel comfortable – just don’t bet him to repeat as champ.
Avoid: Bubba Watson (+4500) – He’s all over the map at this course with three wins here since 2014, but he has missed the cut here in back-to-back years. He looked pretty good last week and finished T14 thanks to putting on a clinic with his approach game, but I’m not so sure he can keep that going this week. He could win for the fourth time this week, finish top 20, miss the cut, or withdraw, it’s hard to know how to handle Bubba, but I would suggest keeping your money on the sidelines to play it safe.
+5100 to +10000
Thomas Pieters (+7000) – Pieters torched this course in 2017 when he finished T2 thanks to a strong approach game and putting, and he has won twice in his last five starts on the European Tour, so he has a ton of betting intrigue this week. I would recommend a top 20 or top 30 wager on Thomas, but you could bet him to finish top 10 and do quite well – your call.
Paul Casey (+6000) – If you’re looking for a safe player to bet on this week, then Casey will appeal to you as he consistently posts top 10’s, top 20’s, and top 30’s. At Riviera, he had a T2 in 2015, and has seven top 39’s in eight starts since 2008 with impressive ball-striking almost every time. You can bet him any which way, but I would stick to a top 20, a top 30, or a top 40 bet, or do all of them to potentially collect on all three wagers.
Avoid: Patrick Reed (+9000) – Reed doesn’t have a very good history here and it’s not surprising since this course is a ball-strikers paradise, and that’s not his profile. He has played here three times since 2013 and has a missed cut, a T51, and a T59, so he’s only a bit better than average and his results don’t pay the betting bills. He hasn’t been very good lately outside of a T3 at the Hero World Challenge in December where I assume he putted the lights out but we don’t have strokes gained data for that tournament to confirm that prediction, and he has been dreadful off the tee and on approach since last August.
+11000 and higher
James Hahn (+20000) – A lot of players have up and down showings at Riviera, but not Hahn who won here in 2015 and has a T13, T14, T15, and T28 over the past four years. He has missed four straight cut lines, but if there is any course to roll him out on as a bet, it’s this one. Betting him to finish top 20 or top 30 seems like a decent idea as long as he finds his magic once again on this challenging track.
Wyndham Clark (+20000) – Driving distance is one of the key stats for success on this course, and Clark can really pound them off the tee. He has competed here over the past two years and finished T17 in 2020 and T8 last year, both times he was outstanding on the greens, so if his flat stick is cold this week he could struggle but he did gain 2.43 strokes on approach last year, so that’s promising. He has missed two straight cut lines coming into this week, but prior to that, he had two top 29’s in three starts including a T13 at The American Express. Betting Clark to finish top 20 for the third straight year seems risky but could pay off – I would lean more on a top 30 or top 40 wager myself.
Avoid: Aaron Wise (+20000) – Wise was great between August and November of last year, but 2022 hasn’t been too kind to him at all so far with two missed cuts and he’s bleeding strokes across the board. He played here from 2018 to 2020 and missed the cut every time with ugly-looking stats to boot, so I would give the boot to Wise this week until we see his ball-striking return to respectable form.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
