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Week 8 only brings us two bye weeks which leaves us with more players to consider when building rosters this week. Unfortunately, a lot of games appear to be duds in the bookmakers’ eyes, with only two games set at 50 points or greater and five games set at fewer than 45 points as of Thursday morning. However, we do have a lot of straightforward games to work with as far as who will handle the ball in most of these games. Let’s have a look.
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Quarterback
The QB position is headlined this week by dual-threat Josh Allen ($8100). While he’s not a cheap play, the slate itself provides plenty of value opportunities to get him on our roster. The Bills are coming off a loss and a bye week. They should be fined tuned in a home game against a Dolphins defense that has been getting wrecked lately. Tom Brady ($7400) is in a matchup we know he’ll be throwing in since New Orleans has such a tough defense to run against. He could easily hit the 300-yard bonus and throw 4 touchdowns in this environment, which is one of the two 50+ point games in Vegas. If we’re value shopping at QB this week, the two I like best are Carson Wentz ($5700) and Trevor Lawrence ($5500). Wentz is in the other game expected to go over 50-points and has been great at not turning the ball over (only a 1.5% Turnover Worthy Pass rate) and on his deep passes (tied with Russell Wilson for best QBR on deep passes). This game has a one-point spread as of writing so he’ll need to stay aggressive against an injury-ravaged secondary. Lawrence is more of a Single-Entry/3-Max play than a cash option because of the logistics of this game – a rookie QB in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL, plus travel distance. The matchup is interesting for Lawrence due to several factors. The Jaguars and Seahawks are two of the worst offenses at holding Time Of Possession, with the two teams combined averaging around 51 and a half minutes combined. That could suggest an extra eight and a half minutes of extra plays for these two teams and the Jags play at a faster pace (fastest in the league) which could mean they soak up more of those plays. Lawrence has been doing a great job at avoiding sacks (seventh-lowest pressure to sack rate) which will keep the offense out of long down and distance situations and the Jags hold the fifth-best net adjusted sack rate of the week. This should give Lawrence time to pick on a secondary that PFF has graded as the seventh-worst in coverage.
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Running Back
Austin Ekeler ($7900) is my favorite of the top-end backs this week. The Patriots will tend to let you run against them between the 20-yard lines and their LBs can’t cover RBs very well, allowing 7.9 RB Targets and 13.4 RB Receiving PPR points per week. This aligns with the way the Chargers use Ekeler and the Patriots will happily allow Herbert to dump off to the RBs rather than let Mike Williams hit explosive plays against them (whether they can prevent that is another issue). The next RB on my list, and the player I’ll most likely pair with Ekeler for cash games and smaller entry tournaments will be D’Andre Swift ($7100). Swift has 11 or more carries in five out of seven games and six or more targets in six out of seven. He is tied with T.J. Hockenson for the most targets per game on the Lions. His dual role as a runner and a pass-catcher fit perfectly against a defense getting smashed by RBs and allowing 30 PPR points per game to the position. Other RBs I like and will consider in the upper-tier of salary include James Robinson ($6600) as he faces another defense that gets gashed by RBs, Joe Mixon ($6900) is in a great matchup against the Jets defense that has allowed the most PPR points (39.0/g) and the most targets per game (10.5) to RBs this year, and Jonathan Taylor ($7200) who is in one of the top game environments of the slate.
The top value play at RB this week looks like it’ll be Alex Collins ($5300). Seattle proved to us last week they do not want Geno Smith handling too much of the offense and decided it would be better to try and slam into the Saints stingy run defense time after time and lose a close game. Jacksonville is not a pushover in run defense but they’ll be easier to move the ball on the ground against than New Orleans. My only concern with Collins will be high rostership and the potential for Seattle to try to get Rashaad Penny involved, but Collins should still handle most of the load there. If Miles Sanders is out, that should increase the workload for Kenny Gainwell ($5000) and Boston Scott ($4400). Gainwell is the more valuable of the two because he’ll see the targets while Scott may handle more of the ground game. David Johnson ($4200) became interesting after seeing the Texans ship out their lead RB (Mark Ingram) this week. Johnson could take over more of the ground work in a split with just Philip Lindsay there now, and he’s been the top passing-down back for Houston to date.
Wide Receiver
Deebo Samuel ($7400) is one of the more interesting WRs in the upper salary range as he takes on a Bears defense that bleeds 41.7 PPR points per game to WRs (fourth-most of the slate) and Deebo is the primary weapon when the 49ers decide to pass the ball. A.J. Brown ($6900) will probably garner high rostership this week after having a huge game last week and finding himself right back in a top game environment again this week, and his salary didn’t increase a whole lot. Brown and Julio Jones ($5800) will be on my radar this week. Diontae Johnson ($6700) and Chase Claypool ($6300) both stand out in a matchup where the Browns defensive line is shutting down opposing run games (80.4 rush yards per game, 2nd fewest behind Tampa) and forcing the highest percentage of passes against (44%) to filter to the Outside Wide Receivers. The pass rush of the Browns may force more throws to the shallower route runner (Johnson) but Claypool has huge upside for tourney play. Chris Godwin ($6400) figures to benefit most from the absence of Antonio Brown among the Bucs WRs this week. While his two games last year against the Saints were not must-have scores, the Saints are allowing a whopping 9.7 targets per game to slot WRs, and Mike Evans has been a dud in his career versus Lattimore. He may be more of a tourney play this week because of how tough these games have been between these rivals the past couple of years.
If we’re building a stack with Josh Allen and do not want to pay up for Stephon Diggs, we can comfortably stack him with some of his other receivers like Emmanuel Sanders ($5400) and/or Cole Beasley ($4900), or his cheap TE. Only the Titans and Washington allow more fantasy points to WRs on this slate and the Dolphins are allowing the fifth-most points to filter into the slot, which is where Beasley plays the majority of his snaps. I’ll have some interest in Michael Pittman ($5300) this week as a stacking partner in builds I’m using Wentz because of Wentz’s success with the deep ball this year. I may lose interest in this play if T.Y. Hilton returns to steal targets from an already spread-out passing game. Jerry Jeudy ($4900) is another salary-saver option that was off to a great start in Week 1 (7 catches for 72 yards) before getting hurt in the second half of that game. He’ll face a Washington defense that has allowed 45.7 PPR points per game to WRs (second-most on the slate) and the most touchdown passes (therefore, catches) per game in the league. An interesting idea as we scan for WRs below $4000 would be Jamal Agnew ($3700) playing the slot role for the Jaguars and seeing 6 and 7 targets each of the last two weeks as his role expands. He may have one of the “safer” floors of 10-points in this bargain group.
Tight End
A slate without Kelce and Waller is rare and leaves Kyle Pitts ($6300) at the top of the group for salary. Pitts has terrific talent and upside in an offense with a narrow distribution of targets. The Panthers are allowing 7.7 targets per game to TEs (fifth-most for the slate). T.J. Hockenson ($5400) is next in salary and is also in a favorable matchup against an Eagles defense that clamps down on outside receivers and funnels passes inside to TEs and RBs. No team has allowed fewer targets to WRs than Philly this year. In fact, the team allowing the second-fewest WR targets is on the other side of this game (the Lions) which makes Dallas Goedert ($4700) interesting as well. The defense allowing the most points (18.9/g) to the TE position is the Chargers. The Patriots play the Chargers this week and they have two big free agent signees at the position. Hunter Henry ($4200) seems to have built a better rapport with rookie Mac Jones but teammates have been chattering about an impending breakout game from Jonnu Smith ($2800) since last week. Although, Smith may be best suited for tourney play. C.J. Uzomah ($3700) is a touchdown machine and faces a defense that allows (8.8 targets to the TE position
Defense/Special Teams
The top DST on the slate is priced like a value WR of solid TE this week with the Rams DST ($5100) cracking the $5k threshold. They’re an awesome play if your build allows for it. For a little bit cheaper we can roster the Bengals DST ($3600) going against Mike White and the awful Jets offense. I will be trying to get to this defense as much as possible this week and will settle for the next three on the pricing chart (SF, DEN, BUF) if I am short on getting to $3600. Seahawks DST ($2800) works for a mid-range salary play at the position. They have the 12th-man home crowd advantage and face a rookie QB and donkey of a head coach. As far as bargain-hunting goes this week, there are stories we can tell to make ourselves like the Jaguars DST ($2400). We know Seattle is not going to let Geno cook and will try to control the game by running as much as possible. This could reduce their points scored. If the Jags offense can get out to a decent lead and force Geno into uncomfortable throws or taking sacks, this play could work out.
Cash Game Core
Using the players listed above, you could construct something along these lines. However, keep in mind, I am not advising using this build. You should come to your own conclusions and build a roster you are most comfortable with for your style of play.