DraftKings Cash Game Tips
Week 9 will mark the halfway point of this 18-week regular season. Still, it feels like this season is flying by. This has been one of the crazier news weeks I can remember in my 40+ years of following this game. This week’s slate does not have many good games to work with as far as game stacks go, but there are plenty of interesting spots. Losing Aaron Rodgers in what would have been the best game on the slate hurts, but there may still be some pieces to work within that game environment, including the super-cheap QB that will start. Let’s have a look.
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Quarterback
If we were to look at the main slate on Monday when pricing was released, we probably had that Green Bay at Kansas City game at the top of our list of where to go for guaranteed points. With Rodgers testing positive for Covid, it brings more uncertainty to that game. However, we do have a $4400 with some mobility against a primarily man-coverage defense. Jordan Love ($4400) will make his first start and first NFL appearance with starting players around him (not counting a few Week 2 kneel-downs). We cannot know for sure what the game plan will be for him, other than most will assume the Packers will try to lean on the running game. That will likely be the case but the game environment sets up for both teams to score at will against each other. If we look at each team’s Drive Success Rate For and Drive Success Rate Against from Football Outsiders data this game features two teams that score easily and are easily scored upon. I would assume Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will load up the box to stop the run and force Love to beat them, all the while blitzing the heck out of him when he drops back to pass. This will open up running lanes for Love to take advantage of and the coverage (likely being man) will have their backs turned on him as they chase their man. Only the 49ers have allowed more fantasy points to QB rushing than the Chiefs which means we are likely to pick up a bunch of Love’s 3-4x salary considered score on the ground. The line on this game has plummeted since the Rodgers news, but Green Bay is still projected for two touchdowns. That could be 1 on the ground and one in the air for Love. Will he outscore the top QBs? Not likely. Can he get us 16-18 points for dirt cheap at this position? More than likely. Patrick Mahomes ($7800) on the other side of this game is also in a good spot to get back on track. The Packers’ defense looks good on paper, but they haven’t played anyone. Joe Burrow and a hobbled Kyler Murray are the only two QBs of relevance they’ve faced and the defense has been dealing with several injuries in the secondary that could open this game up for Mahomes.
Lamar Jackson ($7300) is coming off the bye week saying he feels “refreshed”, “great”, and “110%”. He is a home favorite in a game against a defense that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. He’s the best running QB in the league and is at his cheapest price all year. Joe Burrow ($6800) will face a defense with a defensive line built to stop the run and pressure the QB. Unfortunately for the Browns, their secondary is still allowing WRs to get open. Burrow will have to throw to beat their in-state rivals and has the weapons to put up a great fantasy score in this matchup. If shopping for a bargain QB not named Jordan Love, then whichever QB starts for the Texans might be a good spot to find value this week. Tyrod Taylor ($5000) still needs to come off IR to be eligible to play but he is practicing and he’ll bring a mobility factor Davis Mills ($5200) doesn’t have. Taylor’s mobility could allow his receivers more time to break free from the man-coverage Miami often uses and could allow Brandin Cooks to hit some big plays downfield. Mills will have to do it with meticulous throws and possibly longer drives. The last time Mills faced this Patriots-style defense was, well, when he played the Patriots. Mills was able to hang 312 yards and 3 TDs against the Pats that day.
Running Back
The RB in the top game environment for the position this week is Austin Ekeler ($7900), who has posted 22 or more DK points in 5 out of 7 games. Some of the indicators that favor Ekeler in this game include the Chargers posting the third-highest Net Drive Success Rate score, the fifth-highest Net Adjusted Line Yards score, and the Eagles have allowed the fewest targets to wide receivers this year, instead funneling 52% of all passes to running backs and tight ends with 26% of those (8.8 per game) going to running backs. If Matt LaFleur decides to implement a run-heavy, then I suspect Aaron Jones ($7200) to be busy on the ground and through the air making him game-script-proof. It would also mean more touches are likely for A.J. Dillon ($4600). Nick Chubb ($6700) is an interesting bring-back for any Burrow rosters. It’s a play better suited to SE/3-Max play than cash games, as we are not trying to over-stack one game in cash.
Miles Gaskin ($5800) is in one of the better spots on the slate, especially when considering his salary. His only issue is his coaching staff are donkeys that don’t like to allow him to handle many touches. There is a glimmer of hope here, as Malcolm Brown is on IR and will not be able to snipe green-zone carries, and Gaskin has seen 19 and 16 opportunities last week. If the Dolphins coaches follow the blueprint set by smarter coaches that preceded them in playing Houston (ie. the Rams and Cardinals), then they will let Gaskin eat this week.
Among the cheaper, riskier backs to choose from this week, we can look to take a shot on Boston Scott ($5200) who has inherited the majority share of the carries and snaps in the Eagles backfield. He’ll be taking on a defense that ranks dead last in pretty much any counting stat that pertains to run defense and is the only team to allow greater than 20 points per game to opposing RBs just for rushing yards and rushing TDs. The Chargers’ defense is built around stopping the pass and forcing their opponents to beat them by sustaining long drives which makes them softer at stopping the run. The Eagles have the top Net Rushing DVOA score of the week by 5% above the next team (KC).
Wide Receiver
Sticking with the idea that the Packers/Chiefs game still gives us the best game environment on the slate, I will have a strong interest in rostering Tyreek Hill ($7900) for another week of under $8k pricing. Teams have done a decent job of taking away the explosive plays downfield for Tyreek, but he’s still faster than everyone else and the Chiefs will have plenty of plays where he will be schemed open. This might be a play better suited for SE/3-Max because we still need 24 points but that still seems achievable for cash, too. Ja’Marr Chase ($7600) will be in any Burrow lineup I build as he has been one of the most explosive WRs in the league this year and takes on a defense that has allowed the 6th most DK points to WRs on the slate. Brandin Cooks ($6100) will be very interesting if Tyrod Taylor starts but I’ll still have interest with Mills, too, for the reason described in the QB write-up and because no team on the main slate has allowed more DK points to WRs than Miami. Marquise Brown ($6000) continues to crush his salary on DK. His only two games below 19 points were against the Chargers pass defense and in the Lions game, where teams don’t bother to throw against them.
DeVante Parker ($5300) is likely to go overlooked this week but is worth serious consideration, even in cash. Miami’s target counts for games that Tua played a full game are: Waddle (9.75), Parker (9.0), Gesicki (5.75), Gaskin (4.75). The aDOT for games with Tua have Parker at 10.5 and Waddle two yards shallower at 8.5 aDOT. So, we can get a player seeing one less target than the team’s target leader but gain more leverage with the deeper shots he’ll see. That is not to say Jaylen Waddle ($5600) is a bad play, although he might be the better play for cash. Tee Higgins ($5300) and Tyler Boyd ($5000) are also in play for Burrow lineups if looking for some salary relief down from Chase on those builds, or just to differentiate in SE/3-Max. Jerry Jeudy ($5000) seems more likely to avoid Trevon Diggs than Courtland Sutton, which seems to be the only CB causing trouble for WRs on the Cowboys. He’s got a game under his belt after returning from injury last week and had a great rapport with Teddy B before getting hurt. He stands a good chance to 3-4x his salary this week.
Russel Gage ($4900) has an opportunity to step up with Ridley stepping away from the game. The Saints force the pass and are allowing the second-most points and the most targets to slot WRs on the slate. Hunter Renfrow ($4800) is one of Derek Carr’s favorite targets and the loss of Ruggs could push more opportunities his way. The Giants defense has allowed the third-most points and targets to slot WRs on the slate. The state of the Cardinals is something to watch this week. A.J. Green is on the Covid list, DeAndre Hopkins isn’t 100%, and neither is Kyler Murray. Rondale Moore ($4200) could be in for extra work and will be a quick outlet for Murray to get the ball to so he doesn’t take so many hits. Danny Amendola ($3200) faces off against a defense allowing 18.8 PPR points to slot WRs (most on the main slate) and has held a solid role in the Texans offense, when healthy. Below is a chart I made using our Snap Counts tool to illustrate Amendola’s snaps and target rates across all weeks of the season to date. When healthy, Amendola is the #2 WR on this team in target share and the snaps are up to 64% as of last week. Amendola could easily 3-4x his salary in this spot.
Tight End
Circling back on the note for Russel Gage above, we might also apply that to Kyle Pitts ($5900) this week since he has lined up in the slot on 42% of his snaps. He should also see extra volume in a game against a tough run defense. Mike Gesicki ($4900), as noted above in the Parker/Waddle write-up, is seeing a healthy amount of Tua’s targets and getting them at a 10.4 average depth per target. In games where Houston has faced a talented TE, they’ve surrendered some pretty solid stat lines: Zach Ertz (3/66/1), Hunter Henry (6/75/1), Dawson Knox (5/37/2), and the Cleveland trio went for (11/107/0). Dallas Goedert ($4500) is in a terrific matchup with the Chargers daring you to throw to your TEs so they can tackle them right away and not allow you to beat them with explosive plays to your WRs. Tyler Conklin ($3000) will face the defense allowing the most points and targets to TEs. For context, the Ravens have faced several of the league’s elite tight ends this year (Waller, Kelce, Hockenson, and Fant) which is skewing this data for the most part but for the price and the matchup, Conklin looks like a pretty solid play. Also in a great spot this week is “Packers TE”. The Chiefs are not as good at taking away WRs as years past, but they are still pretty good at it. They are forcing 8.0 targets per game to the TE position and allowing them to score 18.0 DK points per game. Tight Ends are often a young Quarterback’s best friend as they scan the field looking for someone to throw to they see the big man in the middle of the field. If we can figure out whether it’s Marcedes Lewis ($2900) who is set to take on the majority role as a blocker and pass-catcher, or if someone like Josiah Deguara ($2500) will be the primary pass-catcher, then we can at least consider one of them if we’re starving for salary relief.
Defense/Special Teams
The Ravens DST ($3000) coming off their bye week against a Minnesota offense is somewhat interesting at their salary this week. The Eagles DST ($2600) has some appeal as their offensive coordinator was Justin Herbert’s OC last year and has the scoop on what he wants to do to beat them. On top of that, Herbert’s new OC has him running the late-career Drew Brees offense, limiting his talent and upside. There could be plenty of sacks and some possible turnovers to be had against the Chargers when they try to pass. The Falcons DST ($2500) against whoever the Saints put out at QB could be interesting. With the Aaron Rodgers news, we have to consider the Chiefs DST ($2300) as a solid value play in this spot.
Cash Game Core
Using the players listed above, you could construct something along these lines. However, keep in mind, I am not advising using this build. You should come to your own conclusions and build a roster you are most comfortable with for your style of play.
