DraftKings NFL Picks Week 11: Chalk, Pivots, and Punts

>>>By the way, don’t forget to check out the awesome tools that FantasyData added for this year, including Fantasy Projections, a DFS NFL Optimizer, and a DFS NFL Stacking Tool

QUARTERBACKS

• BEST BETS: Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Taysom Hill
• PIVOTS: Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton
• PUNTS: Joe Burrow, Andy Dalton

The first thing that struck me at QB this week was that the highest priced one wasn’t in the $8k range. At $7300, Lamar Jackson is the highest QB salary and he should be able to do whatever he wants against this Tennessee defense that can’t stop the pass and is mediocre against the run. The bump to WR scoring that Tennessee has allowed should provide a nice stacking opportunity with Jackson and Hollywood Brown to have breakout games together. Tennessee ranks 5th-worst in both passing yards allowed and passing TD allowed per game. The Jets defense is allowing the 4th-most passing yards per game to opposing QBs and the last time Justin Herbert played a defense allowing top-5 yardage he went for 41 DK points. With the RB situation not looking pretty, it could be the Herbert show this week in LA. The Jets provide the 3rd highest boost to QB scoring on the main slate. The defense allowing the 2nd-most passing yards per game and the highest bump to QB fantasy scores is Atlanta. The Falcons are coming off their bye week, which may have allowed them to fix some of their issues, but I’m still going to attack them. At $4800, Taysom Hill is going to be mega-chalk, especially in cash games. Even at high ownership, I am still going to have exposure to some Hill + Kamara/Thomas/Cook stacks. Hill has been in Sean Payton’s system for 4 years and adds the element of surprise as a rusher and passer – something the Falcons won’t have much tape of with Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater at QB. Hill also finds himself with the #1 rank on the QB Matrix. 

The Steelers have made it clear that they have no intention to run the ball with any regularity after facing two opponents they could have done so against with relative ease (vs DAL & CIN). Other than the intra-divisional slugfest against the Raven, Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 42+ times in 3 out of his last 4 games, twice reaching the DK 300-yard bonus and throwing for 11 TDs over that span. With a lackluster QB slate to work with, including 5 starters that were questionable at the beginning of the week, old Ben looks pretty good here. The opposite of the Steelers game plan would be the Patriots. They are going to run the ball until you stop it. They would prefer it if Cam Newton threw the ball 20 times or less. The upside is that he’s got 9 rushing TDs on the year and has run the ball 10 and 11 times in his last two games. The Patriots have the setup to go run-heavy against this league’s worst run defense in yards allowed and the Texans are allowing 3.4 total TDs per game as well, tying them with Seattle and Jacksonville for the 3rd-most allowed. 

While the Washington defense hasn’t yielded many fantasy points to opposing QBs this year they have allowed Stafford and Goff to pick them apart. Joe Burrow comes in as one of the cheaper QB options on the slate with a shot at 20+ points. Burrow has thrown the ball at least 36 times in every game this year but one, and has 4 games of 40+ pass attempts. Burrow’s 15 total TDs have him in a tie for 10th in the NFL for total TDs. LaFleur has to see something in the tape Stafford put up last week that he can find congruency for Burrow to hit some big plays against the WFT. Former Bengal Andy Dalton is interesting this week in his post-bye week game against the Vikings. The game-script should set up for him to throw. Minnesota is easier to attack through the air than the ground and Dallas could be playing catch-up for a good portion of this game. Dalton will have fantastic weapons to work with among the receivers, TEs, and RBs, leaving him no excuse to not out-perform salary here.

RUNNING BACKS

• BEST BETS: Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Damien Harris
• PIVOTS: Derrick Henry, Mike Davis, Ezekiel Elliott, James Robinson
• PUNTS: Nyheim Hines, J.D. McKissic, Matt Breida

Alvin Kamara’s matchup on the ground is not that great but his target counts and recent TD equity keep him at the top of the board. If the 49ers defense (even though they’re injured) couldn’t slow him down, I doubt the Falcons can. Dalvin Cook seems like the most intuitive play on the slate. After the Texans, the Cowboys are the next easiest to run on, allowing 157 yards per game on the ground – and that includes their last game where the Steelers completely ignored running the ball. With two 200-yard and one 300-yard rushing games allowed, Cook should get fed quite a bit. For as long as Dallas can keep the game close will determine whether Cook gets to leave work early. If it stays competitive, then Cook should handle near 30 opportunities (rushes + targets). Damien Harris is the Nick Chubb of the Patriots. However, he’s got Burkhead and Cam to contend with for TD scoring. At $5700, if we can get 100-yards and 1 or 2 TDs, then we’re going to be in great shape. Harris and the Patriots backfield come in at #2 on the RB Matrix.

At this point, I’m not sure what level of rostership Derrick Henry will see. It’s been a few weeks since he’s posted an elite score and people tend to avoid starting RBs against the Ravens. There’s also this thing called a D’Onta Foreman that has been leaching 5+ carries, and most recently a TD from King Henry. If my hunch is correct, then Henry will go low-owned and has the potential for a great matchup if Williams and Campbell are out for the Ravens defensive line. Henry trucked the Ravens for 195 yards on 30 carries in the playoffs last year, so we do have prior evidence he could smash in this spot. Mike Davis has the #1 spot in this week’s RB Matrix all to himself with CMC getting the early rule out. The chart shows green box after green box for him in this matchup. Some highlights include the 3rd-most rushing yards allowed, the most fantasy points allowed to RBs, the most rushing TDs allowed and highest multi-TD percent, and a healthy 22% target share to opposing RBs. Good thing he’s not $4k again and has put up several stinkers in a row. Maybe the field will be off of him. Ezekiel Elliott has been a bust this year. The matchup doesn’t insist we start him but I’m looking at him from a volume to price angle. If we can get a traditional 25 opportunity Zeke workload for $6500, why wouldn’t we take that? With Dalton back, the Cowboys will have a competent NFL QB running the offense, which will open up the playbook more. Teams won’t be able to focus on stopping Zeke and making a DiNucci or Gilbert beat them. Also, the bye week may have allowed the Cowboys to make some adjustments. The concern with Zeke will be his hamstring, so we’ll need to keep an eye on his Friday injury designation and practice reports for the week. There is nothing sexy about starting a RB on a bad team against the Steelers defense. However, James Robinson has 148 of the Jaguars 155 caries this year. Now with Chris Thompson going to IR, Robinson should see a couple of extra targets, too. The workload is going to be there for a breakout game but the matchup is tough. Although, the Steelers defense allowing three straight games over 100 yards rushing is a reason for optimism. 

If we’re going to punt then we need to do it with RBs that see high target volume. Nyheim Hines and J.D. McKissic fit that description. Hines has an average of 4.6 targets per game on the year to go along with 5 carries per game and 6 total TDs. McKissic has had unreal target numbers these past two weeks with 15 and 14 respectively. Both guys are priced at $5200 and may be a choose your poison situation, or split the risk type of deal. For a minimum price punt this week, I am looking at Matt Breida. Gaskins is still on IR, Howard was cut, and Salvon Ahmed had a very respectable game, but as I have cited each of the last three weeks, there was a story about Miami wanting to get Breida more touches. They traded for this guy and have barely used him. Might as well use what you paid for.

WIDE RECEIVERS

• BEST BETS: Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, Calvin Ridley, Amari Cooper
• PIVOTS: Jamison Crowder, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, D.J. Chark
• PUNTS: Brandin Cooks, Mike Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Corey Davis
• DEEPER PUNTS: Jakeem Grant, Denzel Mims, Isaiah Wright

Keenan Allen’s volume took a dip last week against a tough Miami defense but should be back to normal levels against a Jets defense allowing the 4th-most passing yards in the league. The Jets starting slot corner (and only one playing well this year) just went on IR, their #2 corner has a neck injury, and they cut their #3 corner. Herbert and the Chargers WRs should have a field day against this defense. These vacancies of experience in the secondary could give way to a Mike Williams game, too. Most people will stack Herbert and Allen, so pivoting to the big play guy Williams would be a way to gain some leverage on the chalk. Michael Thomas could also be back to his typical workload after working his way back from injury, increasing his snap share from 55% to 78% over the past two weeks. It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from the Saints with Winston at QB. That along with two mediocre stat lines could help Thomas go under-rostered this week. From a pure matchup perspective, Thomas has the best matchup (on paper) of any WR this week against Kendall Sheffield and the Atlanta secondary. On the other side of the ball, Calvin Ridley is one to keep an eye on for status. If he’s healthy, then he’s the WR that clicks the most with Matt Ryan and is my preferred Atlanta play. Marcus Lattimore has not been as good this year as he has in other years, but I would still expect him to take Julio and allow Ridley to matchup with Janoris Jenkins. If Ridley is out, then I’d have Julio take his place as a “best bet”. Amari Cooper is a guy we want to use in soft matchups and avoid in tough ones since he also avoids them. This week, against an inexperienced Vikings secondary (and with a stable QB back under center) he should have no trouble outscoring his salary on DraftKings. Dalton comes in at #6 on the QB Matrix which projects well for the Dallas receivers. For that reason, I also like CeeDee Lamb in this spot. Lamb leads the Cowboys in TD catches and YPC and is second in targets and yards. Lamb has 5 more 20+ yard catches than anyone else on the team as well.

Assuming the Chargers can run up the score against the Jets depleted defense, that should mean the Jets are throwing to stay around. In that case, I would run back any of my Chargers stacks with Jamison Crowder or Denzel Mims. Crowder only saw 2 targets from Flacco last week which may mean the target consistency he saw with Darnold may no longer be stable. He has the best matchup against the und-drafted corner out of Regina (Canada) Tevaugh Campbell. Perriman’s skill-set should be taken away by the nature of the Chargers defense playing over the top coverage, leaving anything Crowder doesn’t do to be picked by Mims. Mims is cheap on DK this week, too. Big Ben stacks are going to cause a lot of folks headaches this week with all the talent he has to work with. JuJu has had two nice weeks in a row, Claypool has multi-TD upside, and Diontae Johnson is the cheapest of the three. My top choice of the three is Johnson due to his talent and the way Pittsburgh attacks. Johnson has the most reliable target count and has the intermediate role that allows for higher completion percentages with the upside for a big play to develop. If going with multiple Ben lines, then I’d probably get exposure to each of the WRs at least once. Then, run any Steelers stack back with D.J. Chark. The Steelers only weakness has been through WRs at times this year. Tennessee’s boxes on the matchup chart for WRs light up like a beacon to guide us into the Ravens passing attack. One of the matchups on the slate that might get overlooked is Marquise Brown against Malcolm Butler. Hollywood has been lobbying for more looks but had to face pro-bowl candidate J.C. Jackson last week. This week against Butler, who is not good in a chase role against WRs, Brown should be able to have an eruption week. 

Speaking of J.C. Jackson, I find it likely Belichick uses him to shut down Will Fuller this week and the targets funnel to the other WRs, to Brandin Cooks‘ benefit. When attacking the Patriots defense in fantasy football, we want to take the ancillary pieces like Snead, Perriman, Aiyuk, etc. The Patriots have a record of allowing the #2 WR to put up good games against them this year. Corey Davis has an interesting price point this week. Davis can see anywhere from 6 to 10 targets and gets to play most of the game across from Marcus Peters. Peters is a great cover corner but can also get exposed when he gambles or tries to bait the QB. This opens him up to allowing big plays from time to time. If Baltimore goes all-out to stop King Henry then Davis and Brown will be busy, giving this a chance to hit as a punt play. Jakeem Grant is finally getting his chance in the Dolphins offense. He’s been a guy they’ve been developing for a while and he capitalized on his opportunity last week by catching a TD early in the game. This week, the Dolphins may try to hammer the Broncos on the ground the way the Raiders did, but for the salary Grant consumes, it’s worth a shot in case his expanded role pay off higher this week. Isaiah Wright is the minimum-priced WR I like most this week. The QB matrix has Alex Smith at #3, so if Washington is to be a pass-heavy team this week, I like the rapport Wright is building with Smith. Steven Sims is also minimum-price and has a larger snap share than Wright in the offense and for $300 more there’s Cam Sims, the WFT’s #2 WR. These guys are all cheap for a reason, as they are the #4 option (at best) behind McLaurin, McKissic, and Thomas. 

TIGHT ENDS

• BEST BETS: Hayden Hurst, Jared Cook
• PIVOTS: Austin Hooper, Dallas Goedert
• PUNTS: Logan Thomas

The Saints defense has allowed a league-leading 8.6 targets per game to TEs and the 5th-lowest fantasy points allowed to outside WRs. That’s good news for Hayden Hurst, who is averaging 6.0 targets per game. Hurst will be an even stronger play if Ridley is out or sees limited snaps but is a solid play, nonetheless, in a baron TE pool this week. While the Saints allow the most TE targets, the Falcons allow the most fantasy points to TEs. Jared Cook ghosted DFS lines last week and was barely a pulse the week before. Hard to say he’s a “Best Bet” here, other than the matchup, but again, we’re dealing with a weak group of TEs this week. Winston often looked for Cam Brate down in the green zone as a Buc, so maybe he carries that on and Cook catches a TD or two.

The Browns offense doesn’t have many playmakers in the receiving game and they just got Austin Hooper back from an appendectomy last week. Hooper was seeing 7.7 targets per game in the three games before his injury, and that was with Beckham on the field. He only had 2 targets in his return but that could spike back up this week against an Eagles defense that tends to funnel targets inside to TEs. As for the Eagles, they face a team allowing 8.1 targets per game to the TE position and after Dallas Goedert put in a modest game last week, we can expect him to be utilized a little more here. Goedert started the year seeing 8 and 9 targets in his first two games, then got hurt in week 3. Cleveland’s 3.1 bump to TE scoring and the 2 passing TDs per game will help Goedert’s cause for a good game this week. 

Sticking with the idea that Alex Smith is in a good spot this week and Smith’s history with throwing to TEs, it’s highly possible Logan Thomas can out-score his salary this week as the #2 or #3 option in the WFT passing game that is facing a team allowing 8.2 targets per game to the position.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

• BEST BETS: Steelers, Chargers, Dolphins
• PIVOTS: Patriots, Eagles
• PUNTS: Panthers, Bengals

The Steelers and Chargers have the two most lopsided matchups of the slate and will be facing desperate offenses that are prone to mistakes. Both are capable of racking up sacks and turnovers. The Dolphins will either see a battered Lock or Rypien at QB this week. The way the Phins defense has come along this season, they will have the advantage in this one. Deshaun Watson is not afraid to take a sack or few. Belichick will have some confusing defensive looks dialed up to create time to get to the QB for the Patriots DST. The Eagles DST is in a decent spot as well, facing Mayfield’s flutter-balls and no real game-changers at the receiving positions. Last week’s Brown’s game totaled 17 points. Could be something similar here. The Panthers DST will be better if Stafford misses, but that doesn’t seem likely to happen at this point. They are still one of the better options to pay down for this week. If looking to get below $2500 for a DST, then the Bengals might be the best of the bunch. Washington has seen their QBs sacked 30 times this year. Cincy might not have the DL to take advantage of this though.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Overall, this week looks pretty straight forward. There is plenty of value to put rosters together however you want. Just keep an eye on the projected cumulative ownership of each build if you’re playing large-field tourneys. Fantasy Data has ownership projections included in the NFL Lineup Optimizer if you need something to reference. The article is usually released before final injury reports and the best way to keep up with my adjustments to the news as it comes would be to follow along with my player pool or ask me questions on Twitter @majesstik1. Best of luck this week and thanks for reading!