DraftKings NFL Picks Week 5: Chalk, Pivots, and Punts

***By the way, don’t forget to check out the awesome tools that FantasyData added for this year, including Fantasy Projections, a DFS NFL Optimizer, and a DFS NFL Stacking Tool ***

QUARTERBACKS

• BEST BETS: Kyler Murray, Teddy Bridgewater, Patrick Mahomes
• PIVOTS: Matt Ryan, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson
• PUNTS: Joe Flacco, Daniel Jones

The last time the Jets played a QB with Kyler Murray‘s abilities was week 1 against Buffalo when they allowed him to pass for over 300 yards and run for another 50 while tacking on 3 total TDs. Arizona just lost a game they were expected to win so they should be plenty focused here and Murray should be able to put up similar numbers against this Jets defense that Allen did. Murray is stackable with either or both of Hopkins or Kirk (more on Kirk later). At first glance of the slate, I put Teddy Bridgewater into my “dummy build” based on his match-up against the Falcons inexperienced and poorly run secondary that is now down their starting free safety. This seems like a case of too good to be true so I won’t go all-in on Teddy, but we’re going to want plenty of exposure to this game from all angles. That includes some builds with Matt Ryan, and the desperate Falcons offense playing at home. The Panthers are more vulnerable to RBs but the Falcons don’t know how to use that position. They’re going to do what they do and Ryan is going to put up points passing to his world-class WRs, Ridley, and Jones (if he’s healthy). Patrick Mahomes has had monster games against the Raiders in the past (twice throwing 4 TDs passes). However, his defense has shut down the Raiders offense in their last two trips to Arrowhead and did not require much from Mahomes to win. This week sets up like that, but I still have to include Mahomes as a “Best Bet” because he is capable of 300 yards and 4 TDs any time he plays a weak defense like this. Mahomes also works as a game theory play against what should be a very chalky CEH this week. 

The Ravens are favored by 13 and implied to score 32 points. The Bengals are a team that opponents are running on nearly as much as they pass. This is the Ravens offensive game plan every week. Lamar Jackson should be able to flick a couple of TDs through the air and run in another one or two if this implied total is to hold up. Jackson ran for 152 then 65 yards against these Bengals last year.  If Jackson doesn’t play because of his injury, then Robert Griffin becomes a sweet punt at $4400. Deshaun Watson could be in for a perfect storm game. Bill O’Brien was fired (teams tend to rally the following week), his offense is healthy, and the Jaguars defense is beat up. The Jags placed their starting slot corner (Hayden) on IR, rookie starting corner Chris Henderson is questionable, Myles Jack is questionable, and pass rusher Josh Allen might be out. I would expect the Texans to try pounding the rock with the run but also allowing Watson to cook a little, whether by intent or because this game could be a shootout.

Joe Flacco gives us one of two QBs priced in the $4k range, but unlike Kyle Allen, Flacco is not facing the Rams secondary. Flacco is at home against a well-traveled (back-to-back East Coast games) Cardinals defense that has some holes. Flacco wants to show he can still start in the NFL (as does Kyle Allen, however, Flacco’s window is closing faster). We cannot expect Flacco to produce a game that would substitute for the elite QBs in the league but we may be able to count on an 18-22 point type game at less than $5000 to fit in some of the other plays we like this week. Daniel Jones has had a rough start to the season but reprieve comes in the form of a Cowboys defense that can’t stop anyone. An interesting angle for this game will be the Dallas OL having so many injuries that it could reduce their drive success rate and get the ball back to Jones quicker. Dallas is allowing 3 passing TDs per game, 11.3 yards per completion (5th highest), and Jones has some running ability to boost his floor against this defense allowing the second-most rushing yards against. Jones requires a generous appetite for risk with all the red-flags surrounding his offense but the savings he provides, and possible positives outcome from this game put him on my radar.

RUNNING BACKS

• BEST BETS: David Johnson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Ezekiel Elliott
• PIVOTS: Mike Davis, Todd Gurley, Raheem Mostert, Kareem Hunt
• PUNTS: Chase Edmonds, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Gibson

The Texans run defense has been abysmal to start the year allowing a ridiculous 11.1 points above league average to RB on rush attempts. They are better at covering RBs, but why throw to your RB when just turning around and handing him the ball works so well? James Robinson should be able to capitalize on the soft belly of the Texans defense, especially if he continues to see bell-cow usage like he did last week (21 opportunities). David Johnson is going to be given every opportunity to carry the load this week under a new play-calling staff that wants to run the ball with better success. If Johnson makes the most out of his 3-4 targets then we can probably count on 20+ points from him, and at $5200, that’s pretty solid. The Jags are having a hard time with pass-catching backs so it’s possible Duke Johnson steals some of David’s work here but the game environment might produce more plays for both offenses than they normally run because their defenses are allowing it. The Jaguars defense allowing the 7th most yards before contact could be a boost for Johnson here. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has a dream match-up against the NFL’s worst run defense (by fantasy points allowed to RBS) and should see some positive TD regression here. He’ll be chalky but he is in the best game environment to explode this week. With the injuries suffered along the OL in Dallas, I would have to imagine a game plan centered around getting the ball out of Dak’s hands quickly to guys like Ezekiel Elliott, Cooper, Lamb, and Schultz. Zeke should get all he can eat in the running game, plus his 8-11 targets of the past two weeks. With better TD luck this week he’s got 30 point potential.

The game theory way to get a piece of the Panther/Falcons game would be to pivot off the passing games over to the RBs from either side. Mike Davis is more likely to be involved in his team’s game plan and will get plenty of targets to keep his floor up. Todd Gurley is not seeing the target volume he needs to keep his floor higher, making him the riskier play, but this is a match-up that has yielded plenty of points to opposing RBs for the past two years (Drake aside). Gurley has a shot at 100 yards and 2 TDs at what could be very depressed ownership numbers. Raheem Mostert seems likely to suit up this week and will be a mismatch nightmare for the Dolphins LBs as a runner and especially as a receiver. The Jaguars exploited them with Robinson in the passing game then Seattle used Carson to run them over. Mostert is a far more explosive athlete than either of those guys. Even with fewer possible touches than we saw from Robinson/Carson, he is capable of the same amount of points. Mostert already has two catches that have gone for 75+ yards this year in only 1.5 games played. The Colts defense will have a massive hole in it this week with Darius Leonard ruled out. The Browns offensive identity is built around running the ball and Kareem Hunt has inherited the lead role in that system with Chubb on IR. Hunt is also an adept pass-catcher allowing us to find some added floor with him. The match-up doesn’t look great on paper but with the opportunity share, Hunt should get against a defense missing one of their better run stoppers gives us a solid pivot play.

Chase Edmonds has been getting a steady 35% share of the RB snaps in Arizona and the guy ahead of him has done nothing so far this year. The Jets defense has allowed yards to RBs this year but Football Outsiders has them down for only 2.98 Adjusted Line Yards, indicating their defensive line is better against the run than the raw data may suggest. If they are stuffing Drake, then there’s a chance Edmonds sees an uptick in targets out of the backfield to bypass the defensive line and get into space. Edmonds has a 2-to-1 TD advantage on Drake and a 17-to-5 target lead. Edmonds is starting to look like the more valuable play from this backfield going forward. Le’Veon Bell is back at practice this week and may be active for the game on Sunday. If he’s on the field we consider him at his price point ($5100). Bell will give Flacco a check-down option if he can’t find Crowder one any of the no-name WRs the Jets are rolling out these days. Last year in Denver, Flacco threw to the RBs a healthy 26% of the time. Antonio Gibson has gotten better and better each week this year culminating in 18 total opportunities last week and 3 straight weeks of scoring a TD. The best way to attack the Rams defense is with a versatile RB that can run and catch, which is who Gibson is. With the shut-down nature of the Rams secondary and Kyle Allen taking over at QB, we should expect to see Gibson’s opportunity reach 20 or more runs and targets. The Rams are the second most generous run defense, allowing 5.23 Adjusted Line Yards. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

• BEST BETS: Deandre Hopkins, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Calvin Ridley, Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper
• PIVOTS: Jamison Crowder, Marquise Brown, Will Fuller, D.J. Chark, CeeDee Lamb
• PUNTS: Christian Kirk, Russell Gage, Greg Ward, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb, Darius Slayton, TY Hilton

It’s nice to see Deandre Hopkins at a $600 discount from last week in a better match-up than he just had. The Jets secondary is toast. Bless Austin is playing hurt and Pierre Desir was relentlessly targeted by the Broncos last Thursday. Hopkins and Christian Kirk should have their way with these guys. Kirk is interesting as he is the starting deep-threat at WR. Nuk is typically used around the short and intermediate areas for screen and quick hits to gain yards after the catch. Kirk comes in at $4700 and ranks 5th in aDOT (16.6) among WRs that have seen at least 10 targets and is less than 1% behind Hopkins for his team’s Air Yard Percentage. If we’re playing Bridgewater, then we’re likely stacking him with one or two of his receivers. Depending on how many Teddy builds I have will determine how I stack this. I’ll want 25% with Teddy and both D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, 25% of Teddy plus one or the other, and the remaining 25% with Teddy and Thomas. For the most part, Teddy and any of his WRs are going to be the base of many of the fields’ lines too so we’re going to have to get a little creative to keep cumulative ownership percentage down since they will be high. Any Teddy stack is going to be run back with some Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones (if he plays). These builds are fine for cash and more likely to tie you up with the field in GPPs. If we want to get creative, we can exploit the holes in the defense (the “on paper” prime match-ups) in this one and go Teddy + Gurley or Russell Gage + Ian Thomas. Like CEH, the match-up for Tyreek Hill puts him in the best spot to smash this week at WR. Lamarcus Joyner covers the slot for Vegas and is being targeted at a 21% clip. There’s no way he’ll be able to keep up with Hill 1-on-1 and will need help but the FS Erik Harris isn’t going to a deterrent. Amari Cooper and his target rate deserve mention and consideration every week. He’ll certainly be in some builds for me this week. CeeDee Lamb also makes the cut if Dak has to get the ball out quick, then Lamb will benefit.

Jamison Crowder isn’t an elite threat but he should see his typical 10+ targets against a mediocre Arizona secondary. Crowder has gone for at least 100 yards and 20 DK points in each of the two games he’s played so far this season. Marquise Brown is 7th in the league in percentage of their team’s air yards (1st on his team), is 3rd in the NFL in percentage of targets that are deep (20+ yards in the air from the line of scrimmage), and is getting a minimum of 6 targets (8 last week) per game. At some point he’s, going to hit a monster game. Is it here? We’ll see. I’ll have some exposure just in case. With the Jaguars defense so beat up and the coaching change fire under the player’s asses going for the Texans I want to combo a few builds with Watson and his WRs Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, and Randall Cobb – in that order. This game has a 54.5 implied total and a 6 point spread. There should be plenty of opportunities for both sides to put up points, which is why I will have D.J. Chark in my player pool as well. Chark has a 100% True Catch rate per Fantasy Data’s Efficiency Metrics and a healthy (4th in NFL) 10.8 Air Yards Per Target.

Greg Ward is the healthiest veteran WR for the Eagles right now (if Jackson or Jeffery play, they’re not 100%). Ward is primarily used in the slot where the Steelers most generous CB (Hilton) on the year plays. Steven Nelson is not having a great start either and could also see some of Ward or John Hightower, or whoever plays for Philly. If Philadelphia is going to get anything going, it’s likely to be through the air (Steelers run defense is #1 in Adjusted Line Yards) where they have allowed 2 passing/receiving TD in each of their three games so far. Darius Slayton checks a lot of boxes you want to see out of a deep threat (aDOT, Air Yards, WOPR, etc) and, with Dallas allowing 11,3 yards per completion (5th most), I’ll want some exposure to a big-play threat facing the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to WRs line up outside, which is where Slayton aligns. The Browns defense has allowed at least 72 yards to each opponent’s #1 WR they’ve faced this year, twice giving up a 100-yard game to said #1 WR. T.Y. Hilton has not seen the volume to support him as a solid pivot play but he’s worth a punt here. At some point he’ll have a good game and if we get it for $4900 the rest of our roster will be that much stronger for it.

TIGHT ENDS

• BEST BETS: Tyler Higbee, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, George Kittle
• PIVOTS: Eric Ebron, Evan Engram
• PUNTS: Ian Thomas, Trey Burton

Only 5 teams are allowing more points to TEs than the Redskins and one of them is not on the main slate. Tyler Higbee is in a phenomenal spot here and may be a victim of recency bias with two dud games following his one big game of the year so far. Mark Andrews made the most of his three targets last week bringing in 2 TDs. He’s got another solid match-up here and is his QB’s favorite target. If the Ravens put up their implied 32 points Andrews or Hollywood are going to get a piece of it. If the Raiders are going to put extra guys on Hill to help Joyner, then we should expect Travis Kelce to pop back up to around 10 targets this week and be the red zone threat if CEH doesn’t punch in all the TDs. One of the Chiefs offensive guys should be the #1 player on the slate. In order, I would guess CEH/Mahomes/Hill/Kelce, for what that’s worth. Still, Kelce can provide a solid game but may not be a better salary considered play than Higbee. He would more of a pivot up from Higbee or off of Kittle if you’re looking to split exposure across multiple lines. The Dolphins are a predominantly man defense and they do not have anyone capable of staying with George Kittle one-on-one. Even if they try to bracket him Shanahan’s scheme will break him free. He’s the most expensive TE on the slate, which makes him someone you have to plan the rest of your build around (to an extent) and could create some unique looking rosters.

Eric Ebron’s targets and receptions have gradually increased through each of his first three games with Big Ben and he is likely to see another bump here against an Eagles defense that is stout against the run but struggles to cover TEs, allowing 7.8 points above league average to the position. Of course, a lot of this is due to Kittle last week but they also were roasted in week 2 allowing 3 TDs to Tyler Higbee and gave a TD and 47 yards up to Logan Thomas in week 1. If Daniel Jones is to have a good game, then it’s likely Evan Engram will as well. The Cowboys are boosting TE scoring by 4.3 points above league average and Engram had a 10 target game last week against the Rams who also force opponents to target their TEs at a 25% or higher rate. Engram is going to be a problem for the Cowboys LBs Smith and Thomas who have allowed a combined 353 yards and 2 TDs while in coverage.

Ian Thomas was in the punt category last week because of how good his match-up was. Because he hadn’t done anything on the year, I ended up with 0% on him and he caught a TD. This week I will trust the process/match-up and will get some exposure to Thomas against a team that has been repeatedly destroyed by opposing TEs. Trey Burton played his first game as a Colt last week and immediately had the highest target share of the Colts TEs. Moe Allie-Cox caught the TD but this might be Burton’s show after a game of easing into the line-up. He’s already familiar with the playbook from his Philly days. If we need to go sub-$3k for a TE this week, Cleveland has allowed 19.9 fantasy points per game to the TE position making Burton an interesting punt option.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

• BEST BETS: Cardinals, Rams, Ravens, 49ers
• PIVOTS: Steelers, Chiefs, Cowboys
• PUNTS:  Giants

We’ve talked about a few Jets offensive players throughout this piece. However, those are best-case scenarios for them and a way to pivot away from chalkier builds. At the same time, the Cardinals DST could come into New York and just crush these guys. The Rams DST is facing a team turning to a new QB this week and has not been good outside of the QB. Joe Burrow has played well as a rookie thus far but has been sacked 3.8 times per game (only Watson has been sacked at a higher rate), and now he has to take on one of the better defenses in the league (Ravens DST). The Steelers DST is at home with 5,500 fans against a banged-up Eagles offense and has been playing strong defense to start the year. The Raiders offense hasn’t been able to score more than 9 points in their last two games at Arrowhead and their offense this week is too depleted to expect that to change putting the Chiefs DST and their #1 rated secondary (by DVOA) as an easy pivot down from the expensive DST’s on the slate. The Dolphins just put their starting LT on IR and were already allowing the 6th highest Adjusted Sack Rate per Football Outsiders. The 49ers have all kinds of injuries along the defensive line but they still have guys like Hyder and Jordan getting after the QB, which will be the case here. Ryan Fitzpatrick does have the highest completion percentage while under-pressure so the 49ers will need to get there in time for the sack. It is worth noting, Fitzpatrick is ranked 30th in true passer rating and 18th in Fantasy Data’s Accuracy Rating, so what he is getting out while under-pressure doesn’t seem to be that efficient. The Cowboys DST faces a team that is worst in the league in offensive points per drive, last in offensive scoring per game, 3rd in interceptions thrown per game, and 4th in fumbles lost per game. If those trends continue, the Cowboys defense will look pretty good on Sunday. At the same time, the Cowboys and their losses on the OL open up the opportunity to punt with the Giants DST, if needing to.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Upon my first look through the slate, it looked more like a cash game slate. However, as I worked through each game and looked at injuries, data, and played around with some roster construction, there was more than met the initial glance. We’ve got some plays here that won’t be as popular across the field we can use to turn those chalky line-ups from cash game plays to GPP options. Good luck this week, and thanks for reading!