Dynasty Football Trade Trends
Trading is one of the best parts of playing dynasty fantasy football. Just because a current season may be hopeless does not mean all is lost for future years. Current assets on an underachieving can easily be turned into future assets for a contending team down the road. What’s hardest to determine in dynasty football, however, is how fair a trade might be to each team involved.
Incentives for a team matter greatly in fantasy football. The best place to be is at the top, loaded with proven assets, or at the bottom, loaded with young players and draft picks. Those in the middle are often trying to get to one of these two places which often makes for very interesting trade partners.
This weekly piece will examine five real-world dynasty trades that went down and were posted on social media. I will reflect on reasons why the trade might have been made, my thoughts on the fairness of the trade, and determine which side I would have taken based on the variables we know.
To evaluate trades you might be considering, be sure to use the Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer available at fantasyfootballcalculator.com.
Dynasty Trade #1 – Wide Receivers With Question Marks
Why Might This Trade Have Been Made:
This trade is interesting because both sides involve high-ceiling wide receivers and early-round 2025 draft picks. We don’t know if these picks will be early or late and we don’t know if this is half-PPR, full-PPR, or any other scoring quirks. I’ll assume these are both mid-round picks and half-PPR scoring.
If Curtis Patrick is “trophy hunting,” as his comment indicates here, he likely made this trade to get an ascending wide receiver and a lower draft pick in place of a more proven wide receiver, albeit one who is lost for the year to injury, and a second-round pick. Pickens has reached another level with Russell Wilson at quarterback and has 276 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games.
Which Side Wins:
Assuming the team on the other side of this is looking towards the future and was fine receiving a player who won’t play this year and likely won’t have Deebo Samuel on the San Francisco 49ers after this season to take pressure off of him, I still would have rather have George Pickens plus a third-rounder. Brandon Aiyuk turns 27 in 100 days and is coming off major knee surgery that might not let him be ready for the start of 2025. George Pickens turns just 24 in 100 days and now has a quarterback that can get him the ball to match his downfield speed.
The only asterisk here is how long Russell Wilson will be the quarterback and who succeeds him. I can’t see any way that the Steelers won’t sign him to a 1-2 year deal after this season since they won’t have access to the best quarterbacks in the 2025 draft. Pickens is a player to acquire in dynasty leagues whether you are win-now or looking to the future.
Dynasty Trade #2 – Proven vs. Potential
Why Might This Trade Have Been Made:
To me, this looks like a sneaky win-now versus a play for the future trade as well. The team acquiring Deebo Samuel and Trey McBride wants to capitalize on the absence of Brandon Aiuyuk and the ascension of Kyler Murray this season. Chris Olave and Brock Bowers both have issues this season outside their control and look to be more valuable in 2025 and beyond. Olave has suffered his fourth documented concussion and may not play again this season. Brock Bowers has proven to be a legit NFL talent, but his quarterback play in Las Vegas is dragging down his production. That position likely improves next year, so Bowers (just 21 years old) is a play for the future as well.
Which Side Wins:
The Chris Olave situation scares me. That many concussions could eventually lead to an early exit from the league, and there is no indication the Saints plan to move on from Derek Carr, the quarterback who has put him in a position to get several of those concussions. There is no doubting Olave’s talent and role on this team, but external factors push me away from him.
I’m less concerned about Brock Bowers, but the quarterback situation still must be considered. Even if the Raiders upgrade to one of the big three quarterbacks in the 2025 draft class, do we have any guarantees they will excel and the offense will revolve around Bowers? Give me the Deebo and McBride side in this one, especially since McBride hasn’t even reached his 25th birthday yet.
Dynasty Trade #3 – Win Now vs. Planning For the Future
Why Might This Trade Have Been Made:
This is about the most obvious win-now versus future planning trade as you will find in dynasty. Aaron Jones has been a workhorse for Minnesota and has avoided major injury. Jaylen Wright has done basically nothing for the Dolphins this season but that could change when Raheem Mostert is gone next year. A second-round pick in 2025 should be valuable for skill position players, and who the heck knows what 2027 will look like at this point?
Which Side Wins:
My personal motivations in dynasty football rarely involve tanking or selling off my good pieces to plan two or three years ahead. That’s just a personal preference, but it also pushes me to the side of @ThoThoMan23 winning this trade. With De’Von Achane being just 23 years old, we don’t know if Wright will ever get a chance at a full-time role. The 2025 pick has tremendous value, but 2027 might as well be the year 2500 in football terms. Who knows how much will change between now and then? That pick might look like an early-round selection now, but it could flip to the end over three years.
Dynasty Trade #4 – Quarterbacks in Superflex
Why Might This Trade Have Been Made:
I love this trade for so many reasons. First, it involves one of 2024’s top gunslingers in Joe Burrow (on pace for 40 touchdowns this season). It also involves one of the youngest quarterbacks in the league who has immense potential. Add in a top-four selection in the 2025 draft (likely to be a quarterback), and you have sincere drama in a Superflex dynasty league like this one. I’m sure the team receiving Joe Burrow either has lost a quarterback to injury or has been starting an inconsistent Drake Maye for a few weeks and wants playoff stability. The team acquiring Maye might have just solidified the two quarterback positions on their roster for the next 10 years with this trade.
Which Side Wins:
Joe Burrow is not old by any means, but he will be 28 in a matter of days. Drake Maye just turned 22 two months ago, so the age gap between the two is significant. Unless I am confident I can compete for my league’s championship this year, I would rather have Maye plus a high first in a dynasty superflex format. Maye has shown flashes already two multi-touchdown games already plus three games with more than 35 rushing yards (and one rushing score).
The pick could be Cam Ward, Jalen Milroe, or Shedeur Sanders and I would love to face my opponents over the next decade with some combination of Maye plus one of those 2025 rookies.
Dynasty Trade #5 – What is Patrick Mahomes Worth in Dynasty?
Why Might This Trade Have Been Made:
My best guess is this is a Patrick Mahomes manager who is not going to contend for a title this year and wants to see what he demands on the open trade market. Essentially, the 2025 and 2026 picks are unlikely to be quarterbacks because this is a Superflex league and that position will go early in the round. What this package likely ends up looking like is Michael Penix Jr. and a highly-regarded running back and wide receiver prospect with the picks.
Which Side Wins:
Assuming the team receiving Penix has some other quarterback option they are happy with, this package could be the basis of a strong future core. It seems strange not getting any starters or hot young players for Mahomes, but if a team is truly tanking for the future, I can see why this vote on the trade is relatively close.
Let’s examine the Mahomes side for a moment. He is a multi-MVP winner, the league’s most dynamic player, and a three-time Super Bowl winner. But he does turn 30 next year and is following up a 27-touchdown campaign in 2023 with just 12 through nine games this year. His receiving corps injuries have something to do with that and hopefully should improve in 2025.
If I was starting a dynasty league from the beginning and was presented with these two options, I would take Mahomes. I guess that means the Mahomes side wins in my mind. But I certainly don’t blame a team for building a young corps by trading him away either.
