Early Fantasy Football Predictions
The following are my dark horse candidates to be the top PPR scorer for their position in 2023. For those unfamiliar with the term, a dark horse candidate is not necessarily expected to be a contender for a position but exceeds those expectations and accomplishes it anyway. The players I am listing are not the favorites to finish #1 in scoring this year. Their ADPs are buried behind superstars like Justin Jefferson, and Christian Mc but I believe they have a chance to put up elite numbers and defy those expectations.
QB: Trevor Lawrence QB9
Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars have been slowly putting things together over the past few years, and they could take another big step in 2023. Compared to his 2021 rookie season, Lawrence tallied 13 more touchdowns (3 more rushing), 9 fewer interceptions, and almost 500 more passing yards in 2022. The Jaguars improved in many facets throughout the 2022 season, but a big sophomore season from their franchise quarterback was exactly what Jacksonville needed. In Lawrence’s rookie season, the Jaguars went 3-14. The very next season they made it to the Divisional Round under their new head coach, Doug Pederson, where they narrowly lost to the Kansas City Chiefs (Who would go on to win the Super Bowl). The Jaguars are just starting to gain momentum, and we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg regarding what they are capable of in seasons to come. They just added Calvin Ridley to their receiving corps, who looked to have the makings of s superstar before his 2-season hiatus from the NFL. Additionally, the Jaguars haven’t lost any of the main pieces from their capable 2022 receiving room, as Lawrence will still have Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram, and running back Travis Etienne to throw to in 2023. As Trevor Lawrence gains more NFL experience and the offense around him improves, his fantasy scoring should correlate positively. The only thing that could hurt his chances to make a run for #1 fantasy football quarterback is his lack of rushing volume. Lawrence is in for a big season in 2023, and there’s a chance he could end the season as the top fantasy football quarterback.
Trevor Lawrence pic.twitter.com/1B4ErCP9aD
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 6, 2023
RB: Breece Hall RB18
This pick is contingent on when Hall starts the season. Hall could be a scary player to pick in drafts this year, as he is coming off of a torn ACL that he sustained in week 7 last season. However, Hall was just starting to hit his stride before his injury. He started off the season as part of a committee with 2021 standout, Michael Carter, but Hall quickly established himself as a dominant runner and a capable receiving back. In just 7 weeks, Hall racked up 681 all-purpose yards and 5 total touchdowns with a whopping 5.78 yards per rush. The Jets seemed to be turning into an effective run-first offense before Hall’s injury, but no other Jets running back would end up topping Hall’s 7-week rushing yard total throughout the entire season. How Hall would have fared in the final 10 games remains a mystery, but he was looking better and better each game. If his recovery goes well, Hall could be in for a monster season as a part of an all-around improved New York Jets Offense. His new quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, is no stranger to involving his running backs in the passing game too. Last season, Packers running back Aaron Jones had 59 catches which was only 1 shy of being tied for first in receptions on the team. Hall is young, talented, and in a great situation. If he is fully healthy by week 1, it is possible that he could make a run for the #1-scoring running back in fantasy football.
Jets RB Breece Hall doing some cutting on his surgical knee in Florham Park on Tuesday: pic.twitter.com/Mqs0XhFSWY
— Dan Leberfeld (@jetswhispers) June 7, 2023
WR: AJ Brown WR9
Being traded to the Eagles was a game-changer for A.J. Brown. In his first season away from the run-first Tennessee Titans offense, AJ Brown had the 4th most receiving yards with 1455 and was tied for 2nd most receiving touchdowns with 11. Although he is one of the most talented receivers in football, he makes the dark horse list because is being drafted as the WR9 in Fantasy Football. Could it be his relatively low reception count compared to other superstars? Could it be that he is sharing targets with former Heisman winner, Devonta Smith? Maybe. Regardless, A.J. Brown is one of the most dominant receivers in the league, and he put up insane stats in his first year in another run-first offense. Brown built a rapport with his breakout quarterback, Jalen Hurts, throughout the 2022 season and post-season, and the Eagles are as hungry as ever to return to dominance. While it will be difficult to fend off top candidates like Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, and Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown has a real chance to capitalize on his momentum from last year and make a run for the top scorer in fantasy football. At the very least, A.J. Brown is a great value for his ADP.
Jalen Hurts gave AJ Brown a chance deep and Brown came down with it for a 42-yard TD.
Worth every penny. Every draft pick. What a beast.pic.twitter.com/LPhvfwV9fx
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) February 13, 2023
TE: T.J. Hockenson TE3
At this point, anybody besides Travis Kelce is a dark horse to be the top-scoring tight end in fantasy football. Mark Andrews was the only person besides Kelce in the past 7 seasons to do it. While Hockenson is the consensus TE3, there aren’t many other tight ends in the league who get enough volume to challenge Kelce as the scoring champ. The addition of 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison may hurt Hockenson’s target share, but he seemed to be hitting his stride in the Minnesota offense in the second half of the season. After week 9, Hockenson was second to only Kelce in fantasy points per game, including a massive week 16 performance where he caught 13 passes for 109 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Additionally, Kirk Cousins has clearly begun to rely on Hockenson in big moments, as he had 129 yards on 10 receptions in their Wildcard loss to the Giants. While expectations are high for Hockenson, it will be interesting to see if he can challenge Kelce and Andrews for the top spot.
T.J. Hockenson had quite the Christmas Eve stat line: 13 catches, 109 yards, 2 TDs 🔥@TheeHOCK8 | @Vikings pic.twitter.com/sIlfEqSN8u
— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2022
