Wide Receiver Advanced Metrics
In the ever-evolving landscape of football analytics, advanced metrics like yards per route run (YPRR), yards after catch (YAC), True Catch Rate, and Target Separation have become essential tools for evaluating wide receivers’ efficiency and overall impact on the field. Unlike traditional statistics that focus solely on volume or total production, these advanced metrics offer a more nuanced perspective by measuring a player’s effectiveness in critical areas: YPRR reveals how many yards a player gains per route run, YAC highlights their ability to generate extra yards after securing the ball, True Catch Rate assesses the consistency of their hands by filtering out uncatchable passes, and Target Separation measures how much space they create between themselves and defenders. Together, these metrics provide a comprehensive view of a receiver’s value and potential for future success, helping coaches, analysts, and fantasy football enthusiasts make more informed evaluations. You can find these metrics on FantasyData’s Advanced Efficiency Metric.
Evaluating Tiers Three and Four Receivers
For many fantasy football managers, rounds two to five of the draft present a significant challenge when it comes to wide receivers. These players often fall into tiers three and four and are generally considered solid but unspectacular picks compared to first-round stars. To identify potential breakout players among these ranks, I evaluated the 20 wide receivers (excluding the rookies Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabors) who generally fall in these tiers using YPRR in conjunction with other advanced metrics such as Yards After Catch (YAC), True Catch Rate, and Target Separation. By combining these numbers with qualitative analysis, I aim to pinpoint the most efficient and valuable receivers in this crucial draft range.
To begin, here is a list of the receivers alphabetized by first name. Advanced Metrics Breakdown
Key
- Tar – Targets
- REC – Receptions
- REC YD – Receiving Yards
- REC TD – Receiving TDs
- Tar SEP – Target Separation
- True Catch Rate
- YPRec – Yards Per Reception
- YPTarget – Yards Per Target
- YP Route – Run Yards Per Route Run
- YAC – Yards After Catch
The Interplay Between YPRR and YAC
Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) provides a direct measure of a receiver’s efficiency by indicating how many yards they gain per route run. This offers a clearer picture of a receiver’s effectiveness on the field, especially when combined with Yards After Catch (YAC), which highlights a player’s ability to generate extra yards after securing the ball. Together, these metrics help evaluate a receiver’s playmaking ability and overall impact on the game.
Looking at the top five receivers based on YPRR and YAC data, Brandon Aiyuk and Nico Collins stand out with YPRRs of 3.2, paired with substantial YAC totals of 382 and 547 yards, respectively. These numbers suggest they are highly efficient route runners and exceptional playmakers after the catch. Similarly, Deebo Samuel Sr. exemplifies versatility, with a YPRR of 2.5 and an impressive 527 YAC, indicating his ability to thrive in both short and deep passing games. Jaylen Waddle, with a YPRR of 2.7 and 421 YAC, also showcases big-play potential, while Mike Evans, with a YPRR of 2.4 and 322 YAC, rounds out the top five, demonstrating consistency in gaining extra yards after the catch.
On the other hand, the bottom five receivers in YPRR tell a different story. Christian Kirk (1.7 YPRR and 247 YAC) underperformed last season, but with Calvin Ridley in Tennessee and Trevor Lawrence still under center, Kirk could be poised for a rebound year. Zay Flowers (1.7 YPRR and 391 YAC), entering his second year in the league, has the benefit a year of chemistry building with quarterback Lamar Jackson which could lead to better results. Drake London (1.9 YPRR and 184 YAC) shows promise and is expected to benefit significantly from a much-improved quarterback situation in Atlanta. Meanwhile, Davante Adams (2.0 YPRR and 336 YAC) and Tee Higgins (1.7 YPRR and 235 YAC) round out the bottom five. Adams, despite his lower YPRR, still excels in generating YAC. Higgins, however, has yet to fully live up to expectations even with star quarterback Joe Burrow at the helm, leaving questions about whether he can elevate his game to match his physical talents.
True Catch Rate: Measuring Reliability
True Catch Rate focuses on the percentage of catchable passes a receiver successfully converts into receptions, filtering out uncatchable throws. It highlights the consistency and reliability of a player when targeted, offering a clearer view of their hands and their ability to capitalize on opportunities. Players with a high True Catch Rate are typically dependable options for their quarterbacks, especially in tight situations where securing the catch is crucial.
Standout performers like Deebo Samuel Sr., Jaylen Waddle, and Brandon Aiyuk boast True Catch Rates above 92%, underscoring their ability to make the most of catchable targets consistently. Their combination of reliable hands and efficient route running makes them formidable assets on the field. Other reliable receivers include Michael Pittman Jr. (92.4%) and Stefon Diggs (88.4%), both of whom consistently convert a high percentage of catchable passes into receptions.
On the flip side, receivers like Tee Higgins, with a lower True Catch Rate of 76.4%, face challenges in this area. His struggles with converting catchable passes could limit his overall efficiency. Similarly, players like Drake London (86.2%) and Amari Cooper (88.9%) fall in the middle of the pack.
Ultimately, receivers with higher True Catch Rates can be relied upon to consistently haul in passes, while those with lower rates may struggle with consistency, potentially diminishing their overall impact on the field.
Target Separation: Creating Space
Target Separation measures how much distance a receiver generates between themselves and defenders at the time of the catch. This space is crucial for making receptions and gaining yards after the catch, as receivers who consistently create separation are more likely to avoid contested catches and make big plays.
Zay Flowers leads the way in this category with an impressive average separation of 2.3 yards. However, despite his ability to generate space, his relatively modest YPRR of 1.7 suggests that he may not be fully capitalizing on the opportunities created by his separation. This could be due to factors such as the quality of targets, play design, or even the offensive system. As mentioned earlier, Flowers has the potential for better efficiency and may bloom this year with quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Tank Dell, with an average separation of 1.7 yards and a solid YPRR of 2.4, demonstrates a strong ability to create and capitalize on space. His decent separation and efficient route running show that he could improve further with more opportunities and better offensive utilization. However, with the addition of Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans’ roster this offseason, Dell now faces increased target competition, which could limit his opportunities. Despite this, Dell’s ability to generate separation and efficiency when targeted suggests he could still be a valuable piece in the Texans’ offense, even with more mouths to feed.
Other notable receivers include Jaylen Waddle, who creates an average of 2.1 yards of separation and pairs that with a YPRR of 2.7. This combination reflects Waddle’s elite ability to not only get open but also make significant plays once the ball is in his hands. Deebo Samuel Sr. also shows a strong knack for separation, averaging 2.2 yards per route, helping him maintain his role as a versatile and dangerous weapon in San Francisco’s offense.
On the lower end of the spectrum, Drake London generates 1.3 yards of separation on average, a relatively modest figure. This lack of space could explain his lower YAC totals, as he may be more frequently dealing with contested catches or facing tighter coverage. Players like DK Metcalf and Mike Evans also hover around 1.3 yards of separation but manage to compensate for it with their size and physicality, allowing them to win in more contested catch situations.
Ultimately, Target Separation is a key metric for evaluating a receiver’s ability to create space and avoid tight coverage. Players who excel in separation, like Flowers and Waddle, have a higher likelihood of making uncontested catches, while those with lower separation totals must often rely on other traits, such as size or strength, to succeed. As offenses evolve and more emphasis is placed on quick-timing routes, Target Separation will continue to be a valuable indicator of a receiver’s potential to succeed in both the short and long passing game.
Consistency and Future Efficiency
Consistency across YPRR, YAC, and True Catch Rate metrics is often a strong predictor of future success. Receivers like Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins, and Jaylen Waddle show high levels of efficiency across multiple metrics, making them prime candidates for sustained or improved performance. Meanwhile, players like Mike Evans and DK Metcalf, despite strong YPRR numbers, have lower True Catch Rates, which could limit their future efficiency.
Identifying Potential Outliers
Outliers in these metrics warrant closer examination as they can highlight areas for potential regression or unexpected growth. For instance, Davante Adams, with a relatively low YPRR of 2.0 but a solid YAC of 336 yards, shows that despite his elite skills, declining quarterback play in Las Vegas and his age (31) may limit his ability to improve in 2024. Tee Higgins, despite playing with star quarterback Joe Burrow, has struggled to reach his full potential, posting a modest YPRR and YAC. Without a significant improvement in his role within the offense, his efficiency could continue to stagnate.
On the other hand, Christian Kirk—while showing lower YAC and YPRR—could rebound with a more defined role in Jacksonville’s offense. Additionally, Drake London, who had modest metrics in 2023, now benefits from a significant quarterback upgrade, which could help boost his efficiency across the board.
These outliers illustrate that while raw metrics tell part of the story, context matters. Age, offensive schemes, and quarterback play can significantly influence a player’s ability to either exceed or underperform relative to their advanced metrics.
Rankings Based on Spreadsheet Data
The following rankings are based on a combination of advanced metrics such as Yards Per Route Run (YPRR), Yards After Catch (YAC), True Catch Rate, and Target Separation. The rankings will not take into account external variables such as quarterback play, age, or system changes—only the metrics from the data.
Brandon Aiyuk
- YPRR: 3.2
- YAC: 382
- True Catch Rate: 96.2%
- Target Separation: 1.8
An emerging star with excellent YPRR and YAC, he will thrive in San Francisco’s offense if he stays there.
Nico Collins
- YPRR: 3.2
- YAC: 547
- True Catch Rate: 94.1%
- Target Separation: 1.7
Breakout potential with impressive YPRR and YAC numbers; poised for growth despite added competition from Stefon Diggs.
Jaylen Waddle
- YPRR: 2.7
- YAC: 421
- True Catch Rate: 92.3%
- Target Separation: 2.1
A dynamic player with elite separation and YPRR; youth and talent in an explosive offense make him a top-tier choice. The only thing holding him back is Tyreek Hill.
Deebo Samuel Sr.
- YPRR: 2.5
- YAC: 527
- True Catch Rate: 96.8%
- Target Separation: 2.2
Dual-threat receiver with strong YPRR and YAC; still a playmaker, though injury concerns exist.
Mike Evans
- YPRR: 2.4
- YAC: 322
- True Catch Rate: 88.8%
- Target Separation: 1.3
At 31, still productive with no significant decline; continues to benefit from his chemistry with Baker Mayfield. Expect steady production again.
Tank Dell
- YPRR: 2.4
- YAC: 152
- True Catch Rate: 94%
- Target Separation: 1.7
Shows solid separation and efficiency; potential capped by competition with Stefon Diggs but still a strong option.
Amari Cooper
- YPRR: 2.4
- YAC: 271
- True Catch Rate: 88.9%
- Target Separation: 1.0
Reliable veteran with consistent production; not elite in any one metric but remains a safe fantasy option. May finally find consistency with Deshaun Watson.
DJ Moore
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- YPRR: 2.3
- YAC: 539
- True Catch Rate: 92.3%
- Target Separation: 1.6
In a more dynamic offense with better quarterback play, Moore’s YAC ability could thrive, though target competition has increased.
George Pickens
- YPRR: 2.2
- YAC: 393
- True Catch Rate: 86.3%
- Target Separation: 1.3
He is a promising young receiver with upside poised for growth in 2024 with improved quarterback play in Pittsburgh, which could unlock more of his potential as a serious threat. He needs to show more consistency to be a reliable fantasy asset.
DK Metcalf
- YPRR: 2.1
- YAC: 367
- True Catch Rate: 95.7%
- Target Separation: 1.3
The physical deep threat, though lower separation metrics, could lead to regression without consistent quarterback play.
Chris Olave
- YPRR: 2.1
- YAC: 347
- True Catch Rate: 87.9%
- Target Separation: 1.7
Olave’s talent is undeniable, but offensive line struggles and average quarterback play push him down the list despite his tier-two potential.
Stefon Diggs
- YPRR: 2.0
- YAC: 399
- True Catch Rate: 88.4%
- Target Separation: 1.6
Now 30 and slowing down, but a soft landing in Houston, where he may work from the slot, could rejuvenate him.
Davante Adams
- YPRR: 2.0
- YAC: 336
- True Catch Rate: 88%
- Target Separation: 1.5
At 31, Adams still has elite ability but faces uncertainty due to uninspired quarterback play in Las Vegas.
Cooper Kupp
- YPRR: 2.0
- YAC: 322
- True Catch Rate: 95.2%
- Target Separation: 1.9
At 31 and back at full health, questions remain about whether he can recapture his elite form in 2024.
Christian Kirk
- YPRR: 2.1
- YAC: 247
- True Catch Rate: 95%
- Target Separation: 1.8
Potential for a rebound year as he is now the clear #1 in Jacksonville.
Michael Pittman Jr.
- YPRR: 2.1
- YAC: 513
- True Catch Rate: 92.4%
- Target Separation: 1.8
Reliable receiver with decent YPRR and catch rates; upside depends on quarterback stability and development. Pittman can pay off big if he develops chemistry with Anthony Richardson.
Zay Flowers
- YPRR: 1.7
- YAC: 391
- True Catch Rate: 90.6%
- Target Separation: 2.3
Top target separation with Lamar Jackson entering his second year; strong upside for growth as he develops.
DeVonta Smith
- YPRR: 1.8
- YAC: 294
- True Catch Rate: 95.3%
- Target Separation: 1.6
Efficient route runner with strong hands; consistently produces but may be overshadowed by A.J. Brown.
Drake London
- YPRR: 1.9
- YAC: 184
- True Catch Rate: 86.2%
- Target Separation: 1.3
Modest separation and YAC but he is still developing. He is a strong candidate for a breakout season if he can develop a relationship with his new quarterback, Kirk Cousins.
Tee Higgins
- YPRR: 1.7
- YAC: 235
- True Catch Rate: 76.4%
- Target Separation: 1.3
He struggles with consistency despite playing with Joe Burrow; he remains valuable due to his role in a high-powered offense.
