In 2020, we had several notable young up-and-coming players debut in the major leagues. Some exploded, others struggled, and some skyrocketed in the NFBC ADP. For this article, we’ll look at five second-year hitters to target in fantasy baseball leagues. Although we’re towards the end of draft season, these second-year hitters will contribute in 2021. For Ke’Bryan Hayes and Randy Arozarena, they crushed it in the shortened season, and their ADP reflects it. Even if Arozarena is due some regression, there’s no denying his 20/20 upside, which is extremely valuable in fantasy baseball.
For all of these second-year hitters, you’re likely drafting them as starters on fantasy squads, but they have the skills and upside to rely upon them in 15-team leagues. Or in Randy Arozarena’s case, his ADP assumes a best-case scenario or high-end outcome. From a draft strategy perspective, I hesitate in grabbing all of these second-year hitters, but it’s worth snagging one or two based on the league depth. Or in trading leagues, buy low on these guys if they struggle out of the gate. We’ll even toss in an honorable mention that I liked as a sleeper, but he’s picking up steam in recent weeks.
Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
NFBC ADP: 165
Dylan Carlson struggled in 2020 with three home runs, 11 runs, 16 RBI, and one steal with a .200 batting average in 119 plate appearances. This came after some excitement with his 2019 season in the minors, where Carlson totaled 26 home runs and 20 steals across Double-A and Triple-A. However, in redraft and dynasty leagues, Carlson feels like a safe bet to buy back into. Here’s a little Spring Training home run to amp us up.
Cardinals prospect Dylan Carlson absolutely hammers this ball for his first homer of the spring: pic.twitter.com/c5Oqamk276
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 20, 2021
According to Prospects Live, Carlson boasts a strong hit tool with above-average power that could hit 20+ home runs. The prospect report on Carlson by Matt Thompson notes that he’s a plus runner that’s smart on the base baths. That said, Carlson has the potential of 20 home runs and 20 steals, which is hard to find with his ADP.
The BAT X projects Carlson for 17 home runs 71 runs, 66 RBI, and nine steals with a .244 batting average. I have a feeling Carlson will outperform his projections, but there’s a risk that he ends up similar to an Andrew Benintendi-type player. Benintendi isn’t a bad player by any means, but a better real-life than fantasy player. Overall, Carlson’s ADP is fair and worth the upside based on your team roster construction.
Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
NFBC ADP: 130
Initially, my gut said to fade Ke’Bryan Hayes. However, my thoughts changed a bit after digging in a bit and reading the Prospects Live Pittsburgh Pirates team reports. Hayes debuted in 2020 with five home runs, 17 runs, 11 RBI, and one steal with a triple slash of .376/.442/.682 in 95 plate appearances. Small sample alert here and we know the triple slash won’t hold up. However, Hayes boasts a plus hit tool with above-average speed and average power.
That said, the projection systems look fair with 14 home runs, 68 runs, 64 RBI, and nine steals with a .266 batting average, according to the BAT X. Sure, the Pirates offense looks awful, but Hayes finished with a 9.2% barrel rate and 55.4% hard-hit in 2020. Amongst hitters with at least 50 batted ball events in 2020, Hayes ranked 9th in hard-hit rate between Christian Yelich and Mike Trout. Yes, it’s a small sample, but Hayes smacked the ball in 2020.
On the downside, you’re paying for the best-case scenario for Hayes with a 135 NFBC ADP over the past couple of weeks. I drafted Hayes in one league, and there’s the potential for 15 home runs and 15 steals with a solid batting average. Depending on your roster construction, he’s worth a shot, but preferably as a corner infielder.
Alec Bohm, 1B/3B, Philadelphia Phillies
NFBC ADP: 106
If you’re looking for a baseball player with a linebacker’s build, then Alec Bohm is your guy. Similar to Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bohm rocks a strong hit tool, but Bohm has a future 70-grade hit tool on FanGraphs. Bohm also burst onto the scene with four home runs, 24 runs, 23 RBI, and one steal with a slash line of .338/.400/.481. In OBP leagues, target Bohm with his low strikeout rate and solid walk rate in the minors.
Although Alec Bohm hasn’t displayed massive power in the minors with his peak season in Double-A of 14 home runs in 2019, Bohm ranked above average in several of the hard-hit metrics. In the small sample, Bohm’s hard-hit metrics look juicy with a 10.3% barrel rate (67th percentile) and 46.8% hard-hit rate (84th percentile). Given his size, it feels like he could develop more game power as he continues to gain experience. The BAT X projects Bohm for 16 home runs, 71 runs, 69 RBI, and five steals with a .267 batting average. Interestingly, Bohm goes about 30 picks earlier than Ke’Bryan Hayes, but again the ADP reflects the 95th percentile for Bohm. As much as it’s enticing to grab Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bohm, from a roster construction strategy, it’s difficult to roster both.
Randy Arozarena, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
NFBC ADP: 58
Before the 2020 season, I touted Randy Arozarena as a buy low in dynasty leagues after a solid 2019 campaign in the minor leagues with 16 home runs and 19 steals. The St. Louis Cardinals traded him to the Rays and he exploded onto the scene in 2020 with seven home runs, 15 runs, 11 RBI, and four steals with a .281 batting average in 76 plate appearances. Then in the postseason, Arozarena obliterated his regular-season stats with ten home runs, 19 runs, and 14 RBI with a .377 batting average in 86 plate appearances. Over a full season, that’s not sustainable, especially his 46.7% HR/FB rate in the regular season and 52.6% HR/FB in the postseason. Even home run rate by home runs per plate appearances and at-bats tell us Arozarena is due for some regression.
Over the past couple of weeks, Arozarena holds a 58 NFBC ADP that again feels like the best-case scenario. It pains me to consider fading Arozarena, especially since the projection systems have him with 20 plus home runs and 20 steal potential. I can envision a scenario where Arozarena meets or exceeds his ADP with the rare 20+ home run and stolen base upside. The BAT X projects him for 23 home runs, 81 runs, 75 RBI, and 18 steals with a .254 batting average.
It’s interesting because I hardly see the projection systems reacting so quickly, and maybe that means reasons for optimism. In the small sample, Arozarena’s batted ball data looks solid with a 14% barrel rate and 44.2% hard-hit rate in 2020. When we lower the threshold to 25 batted ball events, Arozarena ranked 31st with a 96.8 mph average exit velocity on FB/LD tied with Joey Gallo and Byron Buxton. I haven’t snagged him in redraft leagues and rather wait on a more proven hitter in Starling Marte in the same ADP range. Part of me feels like that’s a mistake since I dug him heading into 2020.
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles
NFBC ADP: 156
Another hitter that sneakily burst onto the scene is Ryan Mountcastle, who finished with five home runs, 12 runs, and 23 RBI with a triple slash of .333/.386/.492 in 140 plate appearances. At Triple-A in 2019, Mountcastle totaled 25 home runs, 81 runs, 83 RBI, and two steals with a .312 batting average in 553 plate appearances. He hit the fourth-most home runs in the International League that season between Ryan McBroom and Mike Ford. Mountcastle’s strongest tools include his above-average hit tool and his plus raw power that should play up at the Orioles home ballpark.
Interestingly, Ryan Mountcastle typically used a pull-heavy approach (over 40%) with a decent amount of fly balls. However, in his MLB debut, Mountcastle had a bit more of a balanced approach with a 31.6% pull rate and a 36.7% fly-ball rate. That possibly evens out of a full season. Mountcastle didn’t wow us with any of his hard-hit metrics as he finished with a 7.1% barrel rate (43rd percentile) and 41.8% hard-hit rate (65th percentile).
That said, he shouldn’t need to light up the Statcast page with the hitter-friendly ballparks in the American League East. A quick example includes Renato Núñez, who produced the past couple of seasons, and I think Mountcastle is a better hitter than Núñez. In Núñez’s peak season in 2019, he smacked 31 home runs, 72 runs, 90 RBI, and one steal with a .244 batting average.
Mountcastle (156 ADP) falls in an intriguing NFBC ADP range with first basemen – Josh Bell (141 ADP), Eric Hosmer (155 ADP), and Rhys Hoskins (158 ADP). Hosmer and Hoskins (assuming health) look like the safer options, but Mountcastle could outperform his BAT X projections of 19 home runs, 65 runs, 65 RBI, and three steals with a .264 batting average. In a weak lineup, it’s hard to expect more runs and RBI support outside of Trey Mancini and Anthony Santander.
Andrés Giménez, 2B/3B/SS, Cleveland Indians
NFBC ADP: 143
In 2020, Andrés Giménez debuted for the Mets and logged 132 plate appearances with three home runs, 22 runs, 12 RBI, and eight steals with a .263 batting average. Giménez typically stole a ton of bases with below-average power and decent batting averages. In 2019 at Double-A, Giménez recorded nine home runs, 54 runs, 37 RBI, and 28 steals with a .250 batting average. He rocked a solid 21.3% line drive rate yet finished with a relatively high 44.9% ground ball rate in 2020. However, we’ll note that Giménez often displayed a high ground ball rate throughout the minors above 49% in 2018 and 2019. That’s not surprising given his profile, which doesn’t lend itself to a power hitter profile of a pull-heavy, high fly ball rate even though he pulled the ball over 50% of the time in 2020.
#Indians still have decisions to make on back end of starting rotation, bullpen spots, center field and first base.
Think it’s safe to pencil Andrés Giménez as the starting shortstop. He’s been as advertised.
Probably see some roster moves later this week.
— Tom Withers (@twithersAP) March 24, 2021
With that said, Giménez doesn’t light up the Statcast metrics either, but we’re not relying on power with him. After some speculation that the team would have him start in the minors, Giménez supposedly locked down the everyday shortstop role, which boosts his stock. Most of these second-year hitters seem to have a similar ADP, and it depends on what your team needs at that point. The BAT X projects Giménez for nine home runs, 63 runs, 48 RBI, and 21 steals with a .251 batting average. He won’t provide a ton of power, but he’s projected for the 12th highest stolen base total according to the BAT X.
