7 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers For 2022

Cristian Javier (P – HOU)

Although most of the production came as a reliever, Cristian Javier finished with a 3.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 30.7% strikeout rate, and 12.5% walk rate in 101.1 innings. In the final 52.2 innings, Javier’s 31.3% strikeout rate and 13.9% walk rate remained similar, with a one mph increase on the fastball. The overall 13.1% swinging-strike rate increased from 8.7% in 2020, plus the 80.1% Contact% (2020) decreasing to 70.8% in 2021. 

Javier’s Arsenal

The slider improved in SwStr% and Contact%, which led to the overall improvements. Javier’s slider elicited a 19.6% SwStr%, 66.9% Z-Contact%, and 53.5% Contact%. Although we’re dealing with a smaller sample in 2020, Javier’s slider resulted in an 11.6% SwStr%, 83.9% Z-Contact%, and 69.3% Contact%. 

Javier heavily relied on the four-seam (59.4%) and slider (27%), with the slider allowing a .089 BA, .198 SLG, and .155 wOBA. That’s ridiculous. The four-seamer boasts above-average movement with over two inches of rise versus the average. Both Javier’s breaking pitches have above-average horizontal movement, which aligns with the lower contact quality. Roster Resource projects Javier in the starting rotation, and Javier presents the upside as a starter, yet the skills as a quality reliever around pick 300.  

Cesár Hernández (2B – WSN)

In 2021, Cesár Hernández smacked a career-high 21 home runs and sold out for power with a career-low .232 batting average. Throughout his career since 2016, Hernández compiled counting stats and plate appearances, with an average of 642.2 plate appearances over the past five seasons, not including 2020. From 2016 to 2019, Hernández averaged 11 home runs, 80 runs, 51 RBI, and 15 stolen bases with an overall .279 batting average. 

Hernández’s Batted Ball Data

With a career LD% of 22.2%, Cesár Hernández sold out for power. Hernández rocked the career-best FB% at 35.1%, with the highest HR/FB% of his career at 13.9%. Although it doesn’t jump off the page, Hernández reached a career-best 6.8% barrel rate (33rd-percentile) and 110.2 mph maximum exit velocity (72nd-percentile) in the Statcast era. Hernández doubled his career 3.4% barrel rate across seven seasons. 

And in, uh, other news, Dave Martinez says he’d love for César Hernández to be his leadoff hitter this season. So there’s that.

— Jesse Dougherty (@dougherty_jesse) March 15, 2022

According to Nationals manager Dave Martinez, Hernández looks like the top candidate to leadoff instead of another sleeper in Lane Thomas. While it’s unclear whether the power sticks since he set career-bests across the board, we hope the batting average improves closer to the .270 career rate. However, if the power sticks, it’s a bonus if Hernández steals a handful of bases, although that might be a skill left in the past. Overall, Hernández should accumulate runs atop an improved Nationals lineup with the addition of Nelson Cruz as a sleeper past pick 300. 

Corey Kluber (SP – TB)

If you like boring players, then look no further than Corey Kluber. In 2021, Kluber dealt with a shoulder injury that eventually landed him on the 60-day injured list in the middle of the season. The overall metrics don’t look awful with a 3.83 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 24% strikeout rate, and 9.7% walk rate in 80 innings. It’s a small sample, but Kluber’s 12.5% swinging-strike rate aligned with the career average.

Kluber’s Arsenal

As Kluber aged, the fastball velocity dripped from 92-93 mph from 2015 to 2019, then down to 90.3 mph in 2021. Kluber mixes in four different pitches in the curve (29.4%), cutter (27.2%), sinker (25.1%), and changeup (13.8%). Although Kluber doesn’t overpower hitters, he possessed three pitches with a double-digit swinging-strike rate, including the slider at 17%, cutter at 13.7%, and changeup at 20.5%. 

The curve and changeup have silly results in 2021, with a .289 SLG and .243 wOBA on the curveball. Kluber’s changeup finished even better with a .213 SLG and .187 wOBA. The cutter and curve have above-average horizontal movement, with the curve breaking 5.8 inches more than the average. 

Although we’re not expecting Kluber to be a workhorse with over 200 innings, he should provide quality innings past pick 300 on the Rays squad. Now with the Rays, Kluber should thrive in a pitcher-friendly park. Tropicana Field ranked third to last in wOBA (0.96) and 22nd in Home Run Park Factor (0.92) per EV Analytics. That should only benefit Kluber as a late-round sleeper pitcher. Kluber falls into a similar bucket to Zack Greinke, given the veteran ability to pitch and adjust throughout his career. 

Andrew McCutchen (OF – MIL)

Like Cesár Hernández, Andrew McCutchen sold out for power in 2021 with the most home runs (27) since 2017. The 27 home runs also came with six stolen bases and a .222 batting average. Unfortunately, the batting average is a career-low for McCutchen, likely due to the batted ball changes. 

McCutchen pulled the ball over 50% of the time (50.4%) with a flyball rate over 40%. The Pull% finished as a career-high with a gradual increase from 43.9% in 2018 and 45.7% in 2019. Given that trend, there’s a chance the career-high 18.8% HR/FB% regresses closer to the career average of 13.6%. With the pull-heavy approach, McCutchen’s 9% barrel rate (56th-percentile) finished above his career rate of 8.4%, but not anything elite. 

McCutchen’s 2022 Outlook

So why is Andrew McCutchen a sleeper? Sometimes the fantasy baseball community has a bias against older players like McCutchen, Justin Turner, and Nelson Cruz, who consistently produce. Although the heavy pull rate for McCutchen concerns us, McCutchen should compile 20+ home runs, plus a handful of stolen bases. 

Since McCutchen signed with the Brewers, Roster Resource slots him in as the DH batting fourth behind Kolten Wong, Willy Adames, and Christian Yelich. McCutchen also displays the OBP skills with a .334 OBP in 2021, a career OBP of .373, and a 14.1% walk rate in 2021. We note that because McCutchen batted leadoff 34% of the time in 2021, so we could see the Brewers slot him there at some point. Especially in leagues with five outfield spots, don’t sleep at McCutchen going around pick 340. 

Jonathan Loáisiga (P – NYY)

Admittedly, my pitching analysis focuses on starters since relievers tend to have smaller samples. However, above-average relievers like Jonathan Loáisiga have sneaky value as non-closers, even in saves-only leagues. Loáisiga threw a career-high 70.2 innings with a 2.17 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, plus a 24.4% strikeout rate and 5.7% walk rate. With the strikeouts, ratios, nine wins, and five saves, Loáisiga finished as the 67th ranked pitcher, according to the Razzball Player Rater. 

Loáisiga’s Arsenal

Loáisiga’s fastball velocity improved to 98.1 mph versus 96.6 mph from 2018 to 2020. Unlike other relievers, Loáisiga uses three pitches at a double-digit rate with the sinker at 54.9%, curve at 20.4%, and changeup at 18.4%. Loáisiga’s curve boasts above-average horizontal movement with 3.8 inches versus the average. 

The curveball velocity also improved to 86.7 mph in 2021, although the velocity gains involve a small sample in past seasons. Given the increased curveball velocity, the shape changed with less vertical movement. The curveball looks “tighter” in the movement profile compared to past seasons. Loáisiga’s curveball results looked ridiculous, evidenced by the .098 BA, .098 SLG, and .127 wOBA. 

Loáisiga’s sinker remained one of his best pitches, with a 67.5% GB%, .286 SLG, and .267 wOBA. The same trend applied from a Run-Value perspective with a -13 on the sinker, plus a -7 Run-Value with the curveball. Although Loáisiga won’t be the closer with Aroldis Chapman there, target Loáisiga as a sleeper reliever for ratios, strikeouts, and a handful of wins and saves.

Clint Frazier (OF – CHC)

With the Cubs signing Seiya Suzuki, Clint Frazier’s playing time could take a hit in 2022. The Cubs also signed Jonathan Villar, and although that doesn’t directly impact Frazier, it affects the lineup flexibility to fit Frazier in. That said, Roster Resource projects Frazier on the bench. However, the talent exists, meaning Frazier may hold value in 15-team leagues. 

Last season, Clint Frazier noted depth perception issues that made it difficult to track down line drives or fly balls in the outfield. Sometimes those issues make it difficult to quantify, but it logically would impact a player’s hitting and fielding abilities. 

Frazier adjusted his swing a few times but most recently made plate discipline changes in 2020 and 2021. The chase rate dropped from 25.6% to 18.4%, plus the walk rate and OBP improved. Furthermore, Frazier’s contact quality remained high with a 10.7% barrel rate from 2017 to 2019 that increased to 11.2% in 2020 to 2021.

Keep in mind that we’re dealing with small samples. Snag Frazier in the final few rounds around pick 400 in 15-team leagues because the talent exists. The STEAMER600 projections indicate the potential with 23 home runs, 71 runs, 75 RBI, five stolen bases, and a .239 batting average.  

Michael Lorenzen (P – LAA)

Our final sleeper here includes a post, post, post-hype pitcher in Michael Lorenzen, who experienced an up and down career with the Reds. Lorenzen has a career 4.07 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 19.9% strikeout rate, and 9.7% walk rate in 437.1 innings. It’s primarily been in relief with only 26 games started, 21 of which came during his rookie season in 2015 with a career-high 113.1 innings. 

I also love the best shape of my life narrative with Lorenzen jacked and fit. Unfortunately, injuries affected Lorenzen’s career with a shoulder and hamstring injury in 2021, plus multiple instances on the injured list in the past. With Shohei Ohtani, Noah Syndergaard, and Patrick Sandoval headlining the Angels rotation, Lorenzen should battle for a starting spot in their six-man rotation. 

Lorenzen’s Arsenal

It’s tough to compare past seasons with Michael Lorenzen’s arsenal with the injuries. In Lorenzen’s career, he usually boasted three pitches with double-digit swinging-strike rates, including the cutter, slider, changeup, and four-seamer. 

Not including 2021, Lorenzen’s pitches had above-average horizontal and vertical movement. Interestingly, the same pitches above with double-digit swinging-strike rates align with the movement profiles. 

Lorenzen’s slider and four-seamer typically possessed above-average drop and break, which translates to whiffs and low contact quality. That’s especially the case in 2019 and 2020, but it’s still a limited sample. 

Lorenzen’s 2022 Outlook

It’s hard to rely on pitcher projections, especially when it involves someone like Michael Lorenzen, who battled injuries throughout his career. STEAMER projects a 4.79 ERA and 1.46 WHIP across 131 innings. However, we have ATC projecting 90 innings with a 4.39 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Although the projected ratios stink, Lorenzen possesses the stuff to break out in 2022, assuming health. Like Clint Frazier, target Lorenzen in 15-team leagues, with the likely scenario as a streaming pitcher.