Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Week 3
We are less than three weeks into the 2024 Fantasy Baseball season, but the injury bug is already biting all across the league. Do you have any of Gerrit Cole, Eury Perez, Shane Bieber, Royce Lewis, Spencer Strider, Framber Valdez, or a whole host of other injured stars? Chances are you do, and you will be looking to fill those gaps somehow this weekend when waivers run. Who are the players who can adequately give you some level of production while you wait for your studs to return? That’s what we will focus on in this piece today.
This weekly piece will look at five options under 50% rostered on Yahoo Fantasy for 12- and 14-team leagues that are worthy of waiver bids or claims. As the third week of the season gets underway, we are getting a larger sample of data from which to conclude. With still more than five months left in the fantasy baseball season, let’s figure out who to target to help our fantasy rosters.
Waiver Options For 12-Team Leagues
Jackson Merrill, SS/OF, San Diego Padres (51% rostered) – Padres’ rookie Jackson Merrill had never played a game above Double-A ball before he made the big club out of Spring Training. But he has shown no signs of being overwhelmed in his first 15 contests. He is hitting .286/.388/.405 with one homer, three RBI, two steals, and 11 runs. The 14% walk rate and the 11 runs from the bottom of the order are outstanding numbers, and he is also striking out only 20% of the time (keeping up with his low K numbers from the minors). Merrill doesn’t play against left-handers, but for leagues with daily moves, he is a perfect middle infield and outfield player to roster.
Connor Joe, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (51% rostered) – Sometimes the older, boring players like Connor Joe are the perfect ones to pick up for your fantasy roster (especially when they are multi-position eligible). Joe’s slash line of .324/.444/.541 is by far the best of his career, and he already has nine RBI and 11 runs, often batting leadoff for the surging Pirates’ offense. Joe has increased his walk rate (15.6%), decreased his strikeout rate (13.3%), and is approaching a 40% flyball rate this year. Joe has received a couple of frustrating unexpected days off this year (all against right-handers), so he is another player best-suited for leagues with daily roster movement.
Brandon Marsh OF, Philadelphia Phillies (24% rostered) – If we play the game of who has the prime breakout age plus whose stats have been improving every year in the league, Brandon Marsh would be the winner of this list. At age 26, the breakout age for hitters, he has started hot with a .333 average, three home runs, and a steal while still batting near the bottom of the Philadelphia Phillies’ lineup. Marsh has improved his strikeout rate and walk rate every year in the big leagues, so I have every reason to believe his 36% strikeout rate in the early season will course-correct soon. His increase in flyball rate each of those three years has also corresponded to a better HR/FB rate every year. His 37.5% HR/FB rate will certainly regress, but the signs for a breakout are here for a player only found on a quarter of rosters.
Sean Manaea, SP, New York Mets (45% rostered) – It’s been a largely bad start for the Mets this year, but Sean Manaea has stepped up into the pitching hole left by Kodai Senga and been almost unbeatable. Manaea was a tantalizing prospect when he was drafted in the first round all the way back in 2013, but he hasn’t put everything together until right now. His 11.5 strikeouts per nine and zero home runs allowed are career-best numbers, but a small amount of regression is on the way. He has a .190 batting average on balls in play and is only allowing 23% ground balls. But for a player who is still available in over half of leagues, Manaea is someone whose FIP (2.30) comes surprisingly close to aligning with his excellent ERA (0.83).
Kevin Ginkel, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks (59% rostered) – With Paul Sewald on the injured list to start the year, the reigning NL champions have turned to Kevin Ginkel for early saves. He has two saves (plus another save chance he blew) in the past week and a half, and he will be the man until Paul Sewals returns in a couple of weeks. So far, Ginkel has nine punch-outs in 6.1 innings to go along with a 2.84 ERA.
Waiver Options for 14-Team Leagues
Gavin Sheets, 1B/OF, Chicago White Sox (13% rostered) – After the Chicago White Sox lost Eloy Jimenez to injury, they installed Gavin Sheets as the primary DH and he has hit third or fourth in the lineup in each of his last seven games. He has responded with a .333/.455/.704 line on the year with two bombs and a stolen base. This is currently the fourth year in a row that Sheets has lowered his strikeout rate and his walks are up by a significant amount to 15.2%. His numbers will clearly regress some, but his .368 BABIP is not so crazy that his eventual batting average could land somewhere around .275 or so. The White Sox are going nowhere this year, so they have no reason to keep the 27-year-old Sheets off the field this season.
Edward Olivares, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (5% rostered) – Much like teammate Connor Joe, Edward Olivares has been a pleasant surprise through the first two and a half weeks of the 2024 season. Olivares is the 18th-best hitter in fantasy over the last seven days thanks to a .344/.382/.656 line, including three home runs in a part-time role. Olivares is splitting time between the outfield and designated hitter, so he sometimes takes a seat for Andrew McCutchen or Connor Joe, but if the Pirates keep winning, Olivares will eventually supplant McCutchen as the everyday DH. In the early season, Olivares is barreling the ball 23% of the time (it was 8% in 2023), a number that will certainly drop, but shows he is making strides as a power hitter in his age-28 season.
Jurickson Profar, OF, San Diego Padres (7% rostered) – In years past, Jurickson Profar was multi-position eligible, which helped drive some of his usage in fantasy baseball, but this year he is only playable in the outfield. Even with the loss of some infield eligibility, he is still proving to be a valuable asset. For the Padres, he has hit fifth or sixth in every game this season, he is hitting over .330, walking over 13% of the time, and is driving in runs as he benefits from hitting behind Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth. Someone with this kind of role should be rostered in more than 7% of leagues going forward as he will be an everyday part of the Padres’ plans as they march towards the playoffs.
Paul Blackburn, SP, Oakland Athletics (21% rostered) – Pitchers on the Oakland Athletics are never the most desirable options for fantasy squads, but Paul Blackburn is making a case for deeper leagues after his first two starts of the year. He has back-to-back quality starts and has not allowed a run over his first 13 innings this season. He is a low-strikeout pitcher, so his seven strikeouts are not a complete surprise, but he has been closer to seven strikeouts per nine over his career, so that number could go up in future starts. Blackburn is now inducing over 50% groundballs again, moving into elite territory just like 2019-2021, and that is the key to his success. Playing for Oakland, the wins may be hard to find, but Blackburn can help with ratios and provide a handful of strikeouts for fantasy teams.
Chad Green, RP, Toronto Blue Jays (10% rostered) – Incumbent Blue Jays closer Jordan Romano is likely coming back from injury in the next two weeks, but for deep leagues where every save is valuable, Green may get a couple of more chances before moving back to a setup role. His 3.18 ERA is right in line with his career number, and – as of now – has a career-best groundball rate of 43.8%. Green could get even better in the games ahead because his strikeouts are only at 6.35 per nine innings this year, far below the 11.5 numbers he has put up during his eight-year career.
