Fantasy Football Advanced Stats Week 6
The fantasy football stats we see show up on the box score and in our fantasy leagues result from many things. A player’s usage, opportunities, team context, and game script all affect what happens on the field. To that end, after a week’s worth of games, it is helpful to look deeper into the advanced statistics to see why certain things happen the way they did. Hopefully, this will help us better predict what will come in the future.
This weekly piece will examine several of the most interesting advanced stats from the previous slate of games. We will use them to determine whether what we saw in the box score is a signal or noise regarding what to expect in future weeks.
Let’s dive into the fifth week of games and see what we can learn.
Derek Carr had a 28.6% Deep Throw Percentage
Why is Derek Carr throwing 28.6% of his passes deep in a loss to the Chiefs, especially now that he is hurt for a couple of games? That deep-ball rate, which was the highest int he NFL last week, highlights how Carr and the Saints have been playing this season. Long passes to Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave have been a big part of the game plan. The question now is, can Spencer Rattler duplicate that deep-pass magic? My guess is that he will not, at least for quite some time.
With Spencer Rattler under center for a few weeks, I expect Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson to be the focal points of the offense. They both allow easy, low-risk targets that can help Rattler move the ball down the field as he adjusts to being a starter in the NFL. With this potential change in philosophy, I’m managing expectations of what Chris Olave and especially Rashid Shaheed can do. All of Shaheed’s touchdowns are on long bombs, so he may take the biggest hit of this entire offense.
JuJu Smith-Schuster had 5.0 Yards Per Route Run
Among players with at least five targets in Week 5, no player had more yards per route run than JuJu Smith-Schuster’s 5.0. He was quite a bit higher than Ja’Marr Chase, Brandon Aiyuk, Brian Thomas Jr., and every other wide receiver who had a big day this past weekend. On his eight targets, Smith-Schuster caught seven balls for 130 yards from Patrick Mahomes. As the Chiefs look for who among the wide receivers can replace Rashee Rice this season, Smith-Schuster just firmly threw his name in the ring.
Cast off by the New England Patriots, the player who many thought was the best option in dynasty formats five years ago may have found a second life in his return trip to Kansas City. Despite running just 60% of the routes, Smith-Schuster demanded 31.6% of Monday’s air yards and 20.5% of the targets. It’s scary to think that if Smith-Schuster started running 85% or more of the team’s routes, his performances could get even better. He was aided by a team-high 81 yards after the catch, but that was always the Tyreek Hill and Rashee Rice calling card. Mahomes knows how to get his receivers the ball in space where they can gain loads of yards after the catch has been made.
Dare Ogunbowale Played on 68% of Houston’s Snaps
Traditionally used in just passing situations or two-minute drill, Dare Ogunbowale saw a huge spike in snaps and usage this week for the Houston Texans. Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce did not play again for Houston, but Cam Akers was healthy, just as he was the week before. The Texans’ coaching staff wanted to give someone else a full-time role apparently, and Ogunbowale was the big winner. Before Week 5, he had not seen more than 39% of snaps all season, and this being a lead or neutral game script for Houston the entire time. This change in role was surprising.
Ogunbowale finished the game with 21 touches for 87 yards, so it wasn’t the most efficient running back performance event. But that did include six catches for 57 yards. Those needing a running back in PPR formats should definitely sit up and notice when something like that happens. So far this week, Joe Mixon is not practicing again, but Dameon Pierce appears to be on track to returning to game action. He is not a pass-catching back (and neither is Cam Akers) so we might have at least one more week of a lot of playing time for Dare Ogubowale.
D’Andre Swift had Nine Rush Attempts in the Red Zone
Just when we thought Roschon Johnson was going to start playing a bigger role in the Chicago Bears offense, D’Andre Swift reemerged and played one of the BIGGEST roles of the season at the running back position. As part of a day where Swift played 68% of snaps and touched the ball 23 times, he also rushed nine times in the red zone, which was far and away the highest number for a running back this week. After Swift, James Cook and Trey Sermon were next with five rush attempts in the red area. Swift was able to turn his rush attempts there into 19 yards and a touchdown.
Not only did Swift’s nine rush attempts in the red zone lead the week, it was the second-highest total by a running back this season. Only Kyren Williams with 10 red zone rush attempts in Week 3 can claim to have had more. Swift also saw two targets and finished the day with 120 total yards and the score. He is officially back on the radar as a strong RB2 going forward, especially as Caleb Williams matures into a better pocket passer. Defenses having to be honest with the elite set of Bears wide receivers is giving Swift more room to operate underneath.
Dalton Kincaid had 103 Air Yards
Air yards don’t show up in a fantasy box score, of course, but Dalton Kincaid is the poster boy for how Josh Allen’s very bad – almost unfathomable – Week 5 brought down what could have been big days for a number of Buffalo receivers. Allen had a 30% completion rate on Sunday when his projected completion rate was around 52%. That 22-point difference was the largest discrepancy in the NFL this year, so the passing game should get back on track soon. Kincaid saw 103 air yards on six targets but managed just 34 yards in the game. That combination should positively regress going forward.
Those numbers allowed him to leave Week 5 with a 27% air yards share and a 20% target share, putting to bed any concerns that Kincaid is not a focal point of this offense anymore. After Sunday, Kincaid is now seventh among tight ends in target share (19%), seventh in total air yards (186), and fourth in yards after the catch (116). That kind of usage should translate to productive fantasy finishes, but Kincaid is just TE12 in fantasy points right now. Look for that to improve going forward.
