Fantasy Football Advice: Six Essential Tips for the 2023 NFL Season
Offseason fantasy football coverage is an interesting pastime. Enthusiasts are always looking for an edge by delving deeper and deeper into advanced metrics to find the one that will tell them who the next “league winner” is or the next “players to avoid like the plague.”
While I am no stranger to those methods, sometimes, getting back to the basics can be a more valuable practice than falling into an ocean of flashy statistics.
That is why, in this article, I’ll be taking you through the meat and potatoes of fantasy football coverage. That being tips to maximize your chances at being on top at the end of the year. Having the right players is just one piece of the puzzle. If you aren’t playing the game to the best of your ability, there’s a decent chance you’ll be lost by mid-season.
With that short intro out of the way, let me introduce you to six fantasy football tips that will certainly help you make it through the 2023 NFL season.
1. Don’t try to be the smartest guy in the room
After getting a few consecutive years of success under your belt, you may have the temptation to flex your fantasy muscles to the rest of your league. Whether it’s through testing a risky draft strategy or taking a guy you like way above his typical ADP, doing something different than the status quo can confuse your league-mates while making them think “What do they know that I don’t?”
While it may seem cool at the moment, the only person usually being fooled in the end is yourself. In the example of drafting a player significantly above his ADP, there is nothing wrong with being higher on a guy than most. The wrong part is missing out on solid players when the player you drafted would’ve been available much later anyway. Rather than having your guy AND some additional firepower, you have your guy while someone else in your league is loading up on talent.
In short, don’t try to be the Kyle Shanahan of your league. It may seem fun to play the role of fantasy genius, but I can guarantee it won’t be when you’re barely clinging to life late in the season with a weak roster wondering where it all went wrong. Fantasy football is a game of consistency, and it’s best not to mess with success.
2. Draft good players on good teams
I know what you’re thinking. “Thanks for the novel advice buddy. How long did it take you to come to this groundbreaking discovery?” There’s more to it, just stay with me.
This is a piece of advice that seems like common knowledge, but you’d be surprised how often we go against it. When drafting teams, fantasy managers may have the temptation to think that this is the year a player finally returns to form or that a player will make the most out of their bad situation. This way of thinking is what leads to wasted draft picks and championship odds dwindling before the season even starts.
In the case of players returning to form, when a player shows us that he’s cooked, there’s a solid chance he’s cooked. This was seen last year with wide receiver Allen Robinson. The man gave fantasy managers every chance to see that he was no longer “that guy” during his 2021 season with the Chicago Bears. However, we still drafted him in the early rounds because his inadequacy was blamed on Chicago’s mediocre passing game.
Making excuses for bad players is a detrimental mistake many people make before and during fantasy football season.
Now, when looking at the case of bad teams, it shouldn’t be a complicated concept to digest. Bad teams, usually, don’t score as many points as good ones. There are a handful of teams that most can tell will be a cesspool for fantasy production, and it’s almost always the ones without adequate quarterback play.
With that in mind, even if your favorite talking head is falling for the “value” that an awful situation provides, just play it safe and avoid. You’ll be thanking yourself while your friends pull their hair out over another mediocre performance from their fantasy fool’s gold.
3. Tune out overreactions from the first few weeks of the season
Before I get into this one, let me provide some popular takes that dominated the first few weeks of the 2022 season. Austin Ekeler is a bust, the Derrick Henry downfall is here, James Robinson looks like a league winner, Travis Etienne is a backup, and Darrell Henderson is a draft steal. With the luxury of hindsight, these sentiments seem ridiculous. Unfortunately, they were accepted by many early on.
James Robinson showing this level of acceleration after tearing his Achilles in December is crazy. He’s the Jaguars best back pic.twitter.com/ig30GfPYEs
— JP Acosta (Pug Dederson Stan Acct) (@acosta32_jp) September 19, 2022
Overreactions tend to be commonplace for the early portion of the season. With people being so excited for the return of the NFL, they can’t help treating small sample sizes as absolute truth. What’s dangerous is that those small sample sizes can bring forth some panic in the realm of trades by impressionable fantasy managers.
The best way to combat the early coverage that may influence some poor decision-making is to just tune it out altogether. If your first-round pick puts up a couple of mediocre weeks early on, look hard at why they performed that way, and don’t make rash decisions that could destroy your season before it even gets going.
On the reverse side of this advice, keep an eye out for the teams that are floundering early. If a member of your league is panicking, be the shark in the water looking to snatch up value before someone else does. If you can get a deal done, this practice usually leads to the formation of super teams that can hop on a one-way trip to the championship.
4. Target running back volume
During the offseason, judging the outlook of a running back can be a tough venture. It’s a position that seems to have a new bevy of measurable statistics every season that the average fan has no idea what to do with.
Experts may point to yards created, yards created per touch, juke rating, breakaway run rate, and so on to support an argument as to whether a running back will succeed or not. While the efficiency metrics are a piece of the puzzle, one cardinal rule has been forgotten over time. None of that matters if the back isn’t getting touches, especially in today’s NFL.
As most know, the league has quickly moved toward a pass-centric playstyle, which has caused the downfall of the running back position (as seen with recent high-profile contract negotiations). With the position losing its relevancy, coaches appear to be gravitating toward backs they can trust over ones that could break off 60-yard runs. That’s why targeting running back volume is so important.
the thing about jaylen warren being better than najee harris is that it doesn’t matter at all
— Denny Carter (@CDCarter13) July 7, 2023
It may be fun to dream what the world would be like if NFL coaches cared about running back efficiency metrics, but due to the current landscape, they really don’t. What’s focused on is consistency, falling forward, and not screwing up. That’s why we’ve seen guys like Brian Robinson Jr. getting more run than their talented counterparts. In spite of him being dull in the highlight reels, he’s a back that has the trust of the coaching staff to do what is asked, which is why he sees solid volume.
Maybe the fantasy community is just Bill James with our advanced efficiency metrics waiting for the NFL’s version of Billy Beane to show up and revolutionize running back usage. Until that day comes, look for backs that are going to see the work, even if they don’t spark a sense of wonder while sitting in your starting lineup.
5. Ignore narratives, focus on context
When forming opinions on players before the start of an NFL season, a lot of people tend to just base their opinions solely on stat sheets and narratives. Stats are part of the equation, but when a player is being judged based on his past season without the context surrounding the numbers, you could be missing the real story behind a player and their upcoming season.
Over the course of a season, most players will run into some obstacles that may limit their statistical outputs. The odd thing about the people creating fantasy narratives is that they tend to ignore those obstacles a large portion of the time.
For example, some may be a little down on Justin Herbert after a mediocre year in 2022. After tremendous expectations boosted his stock in the offseason, he ultimately disappointed in a Chargers offense that failed to live up to the hype. Now, just looking at his statistics, you’d think he might’ve taken a step back. But when you remember the context, there’s a different side to it.
Since his throwing motion was a big thing this offseason, Justin Herbert confirmed for the first time publicly (at least to my knowledge) on The Herd today that the rib injury last year forced him to change his mechanics & significantly hindered his ability to throw over the top.
— Steven Haglund (@StevenIHaglund) August 9, 2023
Herbert fell victim to a few speed bumps last season. He suffered fractured rib cartilage in Week 2 that he fought through for the remainder of the season and his top two targets, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, missed a combined 11 games. With those bits in mind, it might be understandable to see his dip in production.
If you don’t remember the context of a player like Herbert’s previous season, you may be missing out on drafting a stud quarterback at a value this season. If a player’s current narrative doesn’t feel right, always be on the lookout for why.
6. Stop holding out hope for lost causes
In contrast with my previous tip about not overreacting, there comes a point during every season where it is appropriate to react.
Unless something went horribly wrong, most people view their team with rose-colored glasses after the draft. Everyone expects their picks to hit and do everything that is expected of them.
Unfortunately, nothing is perfect, and a handful of early-mid round picks bust every year. It sucks, but it happens. To avoid hanging onto dead weight, it’s best to cut bait and move on. Due to the mind of a fantasy manager, that last part is easier said than done.
No community of beings on this planet holds out hope for longer periods of time than fantasy football fans. Holding out hope for a highly drafted player that has done next to nothing is commonplace in fantasy football. See examples like Kyle Pitts and Allen Robinson in 2022.
Whether it be through their own doing or their team, sometimes, players disappoint.
So, instead of strapping an anchor to your roster, try and build up the courage to let your offseason darling go. There are plenty of solid options that pop up on waivers throughout the season and you wouldn’t want to miss them because you didn’t update your priors.
