Fantasy Football Bold Predictions Week 1

NFL Bold Predictions Week 1

If you’re like me, you’re tired of 2024 seasonal Bold Predictions. After consuming five months of 2024 fantasy projections and predictions bring on the Week 1 content! With actual games underway and team versus team matchups to analyze, it’s time for bold predictions for the first week of the fantasy football season.

This column will try to identify players who could have spike weeks (or bust weeks) based on their matchup, opportunity, and usage. More often than not, the players listed will not be obvious studs, and when they are discussed, it will be because I think they might underperform. It doesn’t do you any good if I predict 125 yards and a touchdown for Tyreek Hill. That’s an expected prediction. But 100 yards and a touchdown for Jonnu Smith? Now, that’s a bold prediction.

Let’s dive into Week 1 to see where we can uncover some lineup gems.

Baker Mayfield Throws Three Touchdowns to Three Different Receivers

It’s no big secret that the Washington Commanders were abysmal against opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers in 2023. They allowed the most fantasy points per game to both quarterbacks and wide receivers and allowed four more passing touchdowns than any other team in the NFL. What did they do with their first six picks in the 2024 draft? Select four offensive players, of course. There have been only minimal upgrades to the defense this offseason, so Baker Mayfield and Co. should have a massive day on Sunday.

Throwing three touchdowns is not an impressive feat for Baker Mayfield in and of itself. He has done that 10 times in his career. What should change beginning Sunday, however, is the touchdown distribution. Mayfield threw 28 touchdowns last year and almost half (13) went to Mike Evans. Cade Otten had four. Chris Godwin had two. That’s fewer than Trey Palmer in 2023. Godwin suffered from terrible touchdown luck and playing out of position most of the year. Rachaad White had three receiving scores despite seeing the seventh-most red zone receptions among running backs.

In 2024, the touchdown distribution smooths out across the Buccaneers offensive players and three of them get in the end zone on Sunday.

James Cook Has Over 100 Total Yards and Two Touchdowns

From Weeks 1-10 in 2023, the Buffalo Bills rushed 25.4 times per game (for 116.5 yards) under offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. After a 5-5 start, Buffalo fired Dorsey and promoted Joe Brady to the role. They would go 6-1 the rest of the way and rushed the ball 36.9 times per game for 149.6 yards per game. In that time, James Cook scored the 10th-most fantasy points among running backs in half-PPR formats. The new regime started featuring him more and he became an awesome weapon.

Fast forward to 2024 Week 1 and Joe Brady is the full-time OC and the Bills are staring at a matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals allowed the most running back fantasy points per game including a whopping 2,027 rushing yards and 14 rushing scores in 17 games. Throw in a league-high eight receiving touchdowns to backs and Cook should bake up some real fantasy goodness as a featured part of the Bills’ game plan.

Zach Charbonnet Catches Five Passes and a Receiving Touchdown

The Seattle Seahawks are six-point home favorites against the Denver Broncos who are starting a rookie quarterback and lost two big offensive weapons from last year. I would take the -6 all day long and I think the Seahawks win this one by two scores. That means we likely see a lot of Zach Charbonnet in this one, and he should be able to take advantage of one the Broncos weakest components of their defense: pass-catching running backs.

The Broncos allowed the fifth-most receptions to running backs last year (90) and allowed the most receiving touchdowns (6). The Seattle Seahawks have already come out and said they want to play even faster a year after ranking fourth in seconds per play in 2023. New coach Mike McDonald wants to run at a breakneck pace and have his offense fly all over the field. Kenneth Walker and pass-catchers likely all perform well in this one against the 29th-ranked defense in 2023 by total yards allowed to opponents. But Charbonnet is going to get some run, and he might be worthy of a flex option this week.

Both Malik Nabers and Justin Jefferson Have More Than 150 Receiving Yards

If Daniel Jones can be even a semi-competent quarterback in Week 1, this game has the potential to be one of the highest scoring totals on the board. Both secondaries for the Giants and Vikings are atrocious, and struggled miserably in 2023. New York (fifth-most fantasy points allowed) and Minnesota (sixth-most allowed) will have their hands full with each team’s top receiver, and they both are projected to be inundated with targets in this potential shootout.

According to PFF’s matchup grades, Justin Jefferson has the best-graded individual matchup of all wide receivers against Adoree’ Jackson. Nabers should have a good-not-great matchup against Byron Murphy Jr., but Nabers was brought to New York to absorb targets and make big plays. It is not out of the realm of possibility that both Jefferson and Nabers each see 10+ targets in this game.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is Outside the Top-20 Wide Receivers in His Debut

Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to be an absolute stud, but he might get off to a slow start in his first game as a professional. According to PFF’s wide receiver-cornerback matchups, Harrison’s showdown with Buffalo’s Christian Benford is one of the 18 worst in the entire league and has a strong “poor” rating. These things are subjective, of course, but it’s not the easiest matchup to start his career.

Buffalo was a top-eight team against wide receivers in 2023, and allowed just 13 receiving touchdowns in 17 games to the position. Traveling across country to play in Buffalo for his first game is a TOUGH assignment for Harrison. Volume might overcome the matchup in this one, but with a lack of other legitimate wide receivers on the Arizona roster, Harrison is likely to see a lot of double teams and press coverage.

Hunter Henry Catches Seven Passes for 90 Yards and a Touchdown

New England targeted their tight ends 121 times in 2023, which put them in about the middle of the pack last season. Hunter Henry saw 62 of those, primarily because he missed three games. He still ended up with six touchdowns (second at the position) and now has a much clearer path to more work in 2024. Mike Gesicki is out of town and Henry is now the clear number one on his team.

The Cincinnati Bengals are -8.5 point favorites on Sunday which means a lot of catch-up time for the Patriots, meaning they likely have to put the ball in the air. That’s good news for Henry considering the Bengals’ struggles against tight ends in 2023. Cincinnati allowed the most receptions and second-most receiving yards to the position last year, leading to the fourth-most fantasy points allowed to tight ends.

Bold Prediction Upsets of the Week

• Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb show the world why they both deserve big contracts. Dallas (+2.5) upsets Cleveland on the road.
• Kirk Cousins looks rusty with his new team coming off his Achilles tear. In the Arthur Smith Bowl, the Steelers (+3.5) defense helps them win a low scoring affair.