Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
The second week of fantasy football’s bold predictions had a few misses and a decent number of hits. In fact, that’s the name of the game when you dive into the bold predictions pool. The results won’t always be there, but my goal is always to have the process right.
Before we get into Week 3 fantasy football bold predictions, let’s look at last week’s predictions and see how they did:
- Justin Fields rushes for over 100 yards. Eight carries were good, but 27 rushing yards is not close to 100.
- Alvin Kamara has eight receptions for 80 receiving yards. Technically did not hit, but I don’t know if anyone is complaining about 115 rush yards, 65 receiving yards, and four touchdowns.
- Drake London scores 22+ PPR points. Only 17.4 PPR points against the Eagles, but the usage was way up (seven targets), so that’s encouraging.
- Calvin Ridley has fewer points than Chig Okonkwo. No excuses because this was a bad call, but Ridley did get a rushing touchdown and an unbelievable, how-did-the-ball-not-get-intercepted touchdown on Sunday.
Hayden Hurst 50 yards and a score. Let’s move on. - Denver Broncos will be shut out at home. Only six points scored and that was in the fourth quarter with the Broncos down 13 points.
- The Los Angeles Rams will win in Arizona. I forgot that the Los Angeles Rams have five guys from the extras casting room of a Hollywood movie as their offensive line.
This column will try to identify players who could have spike weeks (or bust weeks) based on their matchup, opportunity, and usage. More often than not, the players listed will not be obvious studs, and when they are discussed, it will be because I think they might underperform. It doesn’t do you any good if I predict 125 yards and a touchdown for Cooper Kupp. That’s an expected prediction. But 100 yards and a touchdown for Colby Parkinson? Now, that’s a bold prediction.
Let’s dive into Week 3 to see where we can uncover some lineup gems.
Joe Burrow Throws for 300 Yards and Three Touchdowns
I think this is an “Enough is enough” game for all of Zac Taylor, Joe Burrow, and Ja’Marr Chase. At 0-2, they are already in danger of not making the postseason after a tumultuous offseason, but still with Super Bowl aspirations. After losing to the Patriots and Chiefs by a total of seven points, the Washington Commanders are going to be the whipping boys who get the frustration taken out on them in Cincinnati on Monday Night Football.
It’s not so much the passing yards that have given the Commanders trouble through two weeks, they have only allowed 467. But they have given up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks because of six passing touchdowns allowed already through two games. Burrow may get Tee Higgins back in this game to add to their arsenal, and Zack Moss and Chase Brown have both been inefficient through the first two weeks. Burrow and Co. put all concerns about their passing game to rest with a massive game in primetime.
Zamir White Has 100 Total Yards and Two Touchdowns
Zamir White was a very divisive player in fantasy circles this offseason. Proponents looked towards his end-of-season success in 2023 and the run-heavy approach from Antonio Pierce as signals of a big season coming. Detractors warned of his inefficiency and the fact that he might regularly be on the bench for passing downs, two-minute drills, and goal-line work. I was definitely on the pro-Zamir White, but he has disappointed so far. He has only 68 rushing yards, 16 receiving yards, and no touchdowns for the first two weeks. That changes on Sunday.
The Panthers have allowed 333 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns through two weeks, giving up 4.9 yards per rush to start the season. Andy Dalton may give the offense a small spark, but there don’t seem to be any defensive saviors coming to their locker room soon, so this is the big breakout week that Zamir White truthers have been hoping for. Even with his struggles, White is still 11th in juke rate and 13th in evaded tackles this season. With a lackluster defense staring him down this week, big numbers should come.
Chris Olave Has 125 Yards and a Touchdown
This week, it’s Chris Olave’s turn. It’s been Rashid Shaheed’s turn. Alvin Kamara had a massive day Sunday. Even Juwan Johnson got in on the Week 1 scoring barrage. But Olave is scoreless so far, and that’s about to change. The Commanders and Eagles are the only teams to allow more than 36 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers through two weeks of the season. No other team has allowed more than 30. Facing Jordan Love and Kirk Cousins, the Eagles have already allowed 385 yards and four touchdowns to the position, including the back-breaking touchdown to lose Monday Night Football.
Chris Olave was close to a touchdown last week, missing by a few feet. In this new uber-efficient passing attack by the Saints he is 14th among his peers in yards per target and has a 100% true catch rate. There is no way the Saints continue to score on every drive, and no way Derek Carr continues to have a 12% touchdown rate, but this matchup against the Eagles is one where the wide receivers can exploit weaknesses and Derek Carr is going to find his favorite target.
Tyler Johnson and Jordan Whittington Both Score a Touchdown
Along with Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson and Jordan Whittington are your new options in three-wide receiver sets for the Los Angeles Rams while Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are out. Tutu Atwell has been limited in snaps even with those injuries and is playing behind these other three. Even with all the injuries at the position, the Rams still pass at a 65.9% clip, the second-highest in the league. And this week they have a suddenly exploitable matchup against a decimated San Francisco 49ers team.
The 49ers rank 30th in the NFL by allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt and 28th with 80% of their opponents’ touchdowns coming through the air. With all of the injuries to the secondary and the defensive line, they have not been able to generate the pass rush against quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Sam Darnold, which has allowed these two quarterbacks to pick them apart. Matthew Stafford should be able to do the same, and Johnson and Whittington will record their first season score.
Kyle Pitts Scores 20 Fantasy Points
The Chiefs aren’t going to defend tight ends well this year. At 16.8 fantasy points per game allowed, they are more than three fantasy points higher than any other team in football. In Week 1, Isaiah Likely torched them for his coming-out party. In Week 2, Mike Gesicki burned them for seven catches and 91 yards. This week, it’s Kyle Pitts’ turn as the Atlanta Falcons will need to turn to a pass-heavy approach to keep up with Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers, so Drake London and Darnell Mooney might struggle.
Pitts is fifth among tight ends in snap share, sixth in route participation, and second in red zone targets. Kirk Cousins is finally starting to elevate the athletic game we all knew Pitts had when he was a top-ten draft pick, and now he is finally getting the usage. With a 46.5 implied total, both teams are predicted to score over 20 points, and 20 fantasy points is where Pitts will find himself at the end of it.
Bold Prediction Upsets of the Week
Minnesota’s improved pass rush defense frustrates C.J. Stroud and the Texans (-3) and Houston takes their first loss of the year.
Kirk Cousins does something magical again and the home Falcons (+3) figure out a way to take down the Kansas City Chiefs.
