Fantasy Football Bold Predictions
The fourth week of fantasy football’s bold predictions had a few misses and a decent number of hits. In fact, that’s the name of the game when you dive into the bold predictions pool. The results won’t always be there, but my goal is always to have the process right.
Before we get into Week 5 fantasy football bold predictions, let’s look at last week’s predictions and see how they did:
- Andy Dalton has more fantasy points in Week 4 than Week 3. Dalton had 16.7 points in Week 4 compared to 24.6 points in Week 3. A miss for sure, but Dalton has been a top-12 quarterback in both of his starts.
- Roschon Johnson scores at least 15 fantasy points. I’m sure I meant to say “D’Andre Swift.” I promise. Definitely predicted Swift’s smash game after three duds. Shout out to me.
- Jayden Reed scores two touchdowns. Technically a loss because he only scored one, but with seven catches for 139 yards and a score, the process was certainly right.
- Mike Evans has 150 receiving yards. He tallied 98 receiving yards and a touchdown. Only players in leagues that don’t count touchdowns get to complain about this one.
- Brenton Strange scores a touchdown. Evan Engram did not play but Strange only had three catches for 19 yards. The lesson here is never bet on the Jaguars.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beats the Philadelphia Eagles. Easiest prediction ever. The Philadelphia Eagles are just slightly better than warm garbage against quality teams.
- The Buffalo Bills upset the Baltimore Ravens on the road. Let’s get into the bold predictions for Week 5…
This column will try to identify players who could have spike weeks (or bust weeks) based on their matchup, opportunity, and usage. More often than not, the players listed will not be obvious studs, and when they are discussed, it will be because I think they might underperform. It doesn’t do you any good if I predict 125 yards and a touchdown for Kyren Williams. That’s an expected prediction. But 100 yards and a touchdown for Colby Parkinson? Now, that’s a bold prediction.
Let’s dive into Week 5 to see where we can uncover some lineup gems.
Caleb Williams Throws for 300 Yards and Three Touchdown Passes
After two horrific games, things are starting to look better for the Chicago Bears passing game and rookie Caleb Williams. He has 520 yards and three touchdown passes in the last two games as the line protection is improving and Williams is starting to develop chemistry with his receivers. For Week 5, Keenan Allen will be back and Williams is in the perfect position to have his first 300-yard, three-touchdown game of his career.
Only the Commanders (10) have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Carolina Panthers (9), the Bears’ opponent this week. Carolina ranks 27th in opponents’ yards per pass attempt and a full 60% of the touchdowns the Panthers have allowed have been through the air. Of course, there is also the D.J. Moore revenge game factor. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets two by himself.
Antonio Gibson Scores At Least 15 Fantasy Points
The are a lot of rumblings this week that Antonio Gibson is going to start and have a bigger role in the rushing game for New England after Rhamondre Stevenson’s four fumbles in four games this season. If that holds true, and Gibson gets more of the rushing and the short-yardage passing work, this could be the matchup that allows him to secure RB2 value. New England hosts the Miami Dolphins this week and only three teams have allowed more fantasy points per game to running backs than Miami.
Most importantly, the Dolphins have allowed seven rushing touchdowns as they have a severe problem stopping the run in the red zone. The Patriots have not been willing to rush Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye isn’t yet playing, so Gibson could get a couple of goal-line chances if he gets the snaps over Stevenson. We know Gibson is an adept pass-catcher. We know he is elusive. Add all of that plus some additional opportunity up and he could easily surpass 15 points even in half-PPR formats.
Both Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy Have 80 Yards and a Touchdown
This Week 5 game between the Washington Commanders and the Cleveland Brown is going to be perhaps the final test that tells us whether Deshaun Watson is officially broken or not. If he can’t put up numbers against the Commanders and their 32-ranked pass defense, there may officially be no hope for him this year or any year. Even with the game last week where the Commanders mostly held Kyler Murray in check, Washington has still allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers and quarterbacks this season.
Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy and head and shoulders above any other player on the Browns’ roster in terms of passing game usage. Both have over 30 targets, and no other player has more than 20. Both have at least six targets in every game this season, and both have at least 10 catches in the last two games. Washington is 27th in the league in opponents’ passing percentage (72%), which means good looks for both Cooper and Jeudy should be coming.
Garrett Wilson Finally Finishes as a Top-Five Wide Receiver
The last time Garret Wilson finished a fantasy week as a top-five wide receiver in half-PPR points was Week 12 in 2022. that was a full 27 games ago, and since that time, he has been a major disappointment relative to draft cost. In perhaps his last game this season before Davante Adams is on the same field with him, this is the week that Wilson’s squeaky wheel finally gets some touchdown grease.
The Jets are traveling to Minnesota to play a surprisingly hot Vikings team that is favored to win this game by three points. The Vikings have been extremely good at piling up points against opponents this season, but also equally as bad about letting them get back in games with points late in games. Altogether, the Vikings have allowed the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers and the most receiving yards in the league. Aaron Rodgers is going to make a point of getting Wilson 10 targets in this game.
Juwan Johnson Plays 75% of Snaps, Scores a Touchdown
There is an interesting trend developing in the New Orleans Saints offense for their tight ends. After Foster Moreau played 80% of snaps in Week 2 and Juwan Johnson played just 41%, things have started to move in the other direction. Moreau’s snaps have decreased each of the last three weeks, while Johnson’s snaps have increased. Johnson was up to 68% in last week’s game, and I’m predicting he will be above 75% in Week 5 in what has been the best matchup for tight ends this season.
The Saints play the Chiefs on Monday Night Football, and Kansas City leads the NFL in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. As a matter of fact, no other team is within 1.5 points of Kansas City, who have been torched by Isaiah Likely, Mike Gisecki, and an actual decent game from Kyle Pitts. As Kansas City’s strong secondary will focus on Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, Juwan Johnson gets a couple of red zone targets in this one and hauls in a score.
Bold Prediction Upsets of the Week
- Free from worrying about how many targets they have to force to Davante Adams, the Raiders (+2.5) upset the Broncos on the road.
- Since Joe Flacco has the magic touch, he leads the Colts (+2.5) to a road win against Jacksonville, forcing them to fall to 0-5.
