The sixth week of fantasy football’s bold predictions had a few misses and a decent number of hits. In fact, that’s the name of the game when you dive into the bold predictions pool. The results won’t always be there, but my goal is always to have the process right.
Before we get into Week 7 fantasy football bold predictions, let’s look at last week’s predictions and see how they did:
- Jayden Daniels sets a career-high in passing yards. Check. In a fantastic game, Daniels threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns while still finding time to rush for 22 yards.
- Tyler Allgeier runs for 100 yards and a touchdown. Another one, right? Allgeier played his highest snap share of the season and rushed the ball eight times in the red zone.
- Rome Odunze catches eight passes for 105 yards. I picked the wrong Bears’ pass-catcher to tout. Both Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet caught a pair of touchdowns against Jacksonville.
- Zay Flowers catches two touchdown passes. He had nine catches for 132 yards in the first half, so he was on his way there until the Ravens just started playing keep-away with the Commanders.
- Kyle Pitts scores more fantasy points than in Week 5. Pitts’ 8.5 fantasy points in half-PPR formats was not enough to surpass his 12.5 from the week before. However, he has averaged over 10 fantasy points per game in the last two weeks.
- Denver upsets the Chargers. Bo Nix tried to make this interesting, but alas, it was not meant to be.
- Buffalo loses to the New York Jets on the road. Lololol. Never bet on the Jets to do something positive.
This column will try to identify players who could have spike weeks (or bust weeks) based on their matchup, opportunity, and usage. More often than not, the players listed will not be obvious studs, and when they are discussed, it will be because I think they might underperform. It doesn’t do you any good if I predict 100 yards and a touchdown for Alvin Kamara this week. That’s an expected prediction. But 100 yards and two touchdowns for Bub Means? Now, that’s a bold prediction.
Let’s dive into Week 7 to see where we can uncover some lineup gems.
Drake Maye Throws for 300 Yards, Rushes for 50 Yards
I’m not sure you could have asked for a better first start from Drake Maye against a tough Houston Texans defense last week. Even with two interceptions mixed in, Maye tossed three touchdown passes, threw for 243 yards, and rushed for another 38. This week, I’m doubling down on an even better game (at least in terms of yardage) as the Patriots travel to London to take on Jacksonville.
As of Thursday afternoon, Rhamondre Stevenson was very questionable about even making the trip to London, much less playing in the game. If he were to miss, that means more of the offensive load would fall on Maye through the air and on the ground. Antonio Gibson has not proven to be a reliable rusher this year, and Maye makes all kinds of plays with his legs. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most passing yards and the sixth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season.
Brian Robinson Jr. Scores Two Touchdowns
Assuming Brian Robinson Jr. plays in this game (he has been tending to a knee injury), he is in one of the greatest spots for pure rushing running backs. The Carolina Panthers allow 5.5 more fantasy points to running backs than any other team this season. They have allowed 54 more rushing yards and four more rushing touchdowns than any other team. Somehow they are one of the 10 best teams against pass-catching running backs, so this sets up perfectly for a back with Robinson’s skill set (not to mention the rushing floor for quarterback Jayden Daniels).
Even after missing last week’s game, Robinson is fifth in total touchdowns at the position and he has 15 red zone touches in five games. In his last game, he scored two rushing touchdowns despite playing just 33% of the snaps before he was injured. When healthy, Robinson has played between 60% and 78% of snaps in his other games, conceding work only on some third-downs and in the two-minute offense. He is going to be the latest running back to leave a trail of wounded Panthers behind him if he is healthy enough to run all over them.
Three Tampa Bay Wide Receivers Have More than 75 Receiving Yards
To say that the Baltimore Ravens are struggling against opposing wide receivers would be a gross understatement. They allow 1.5 more fantasy points per game to receivers than any other team this year. They have allowed the most receiving touchdowns and the second-most receiving yards. Now enter Baker Mayfield and the white-hot passing offense of Tampa Bay, and this is looking more and more like a shootout waiting to happen.
We already know Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are elite plays every week. Godwin is now the number-four wide receiver in the league. Mike Evans is WR20 and has three games with at least 19.5 half-PPR points. Lately, they have also been getting solid contributions from Sterling Shepard, who has nine targets, 78 yards, and a touchdown in the last three games. I doubt we see north of 200 rushing yards this week like the Bucs had against New Orleans in Week 6. With those players kept in check, Baker Mayfield is going to cook through the air.
Tim Patrick Catches First Receiving Touchdown Since 2021
It was December 2021 when Tim Patrick last scored a receiving touchdown, which might as well be a lifetime ago in fantasy football terms. Football fans know Patrick missed basically all of the last two seasons with tragic injuries and then was shipped out of Denver. The Detroit Lions picked him up in the offseason and Patrick has started to play a larger role. He has five catches for 120 yards in the last two games and he has played over 40% of the Lions’ snaps in three straight games.
At a 50.5-point implied total, this game between the Lions and the Minnesota Vikings has the third-highest total on the board this week. Oddsmakers are expecting a lot of points, and Patrick could benefit since Minnesota allows the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. With Minnesota coverage likely scheming for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, my prediction is Tim Patrick slips behind the defense for a long touchdown in Week 7.
Brock Bowers Scores 20 Fantasy Points
There are a lot of things working in Brock Bowers’ favor this weekend. First, target hog Davante Adams is finally out of town, leaving a large piece of the target share pie up for grabs. Second, wide receiver Jakobi Meyers was still not practicing as of Thursday with an ankle injury. Third, the Los Angeles Rams allow the most fantasy points to the tight end position this season. And last, the Rams also can put points up in a hurry, which will force this Raiders offense to pivot to a more aggressive play-calling plan.
Bowers is now first among all tight ends in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He is top four in air yards, target share, deep targets, and yards after the catch. He has basically become what Travis Kelce was for years after just six games into his NFL career. With all of these working in his favor Sunday, I think Bowers gets peppered with targets and has his best day as a pro.
Bold Prediction Upsets of the Week
- The Jaguars are a dumpster fire so Drake Maye and New England (+5.5) march into jolly ol’ London and get the rookie his first career win.
- Detroit (+1.5) should not be an underdog, even on the road against an undefeated Minnesota Vikings team. The Lions take care of business on the road again.
