Fantasy Football Buy Low Sell High Week 5

Buy Low/Sell High: Week 5

Well, folks, we made it to Week 5 of the 2021 NFL Season. Weeks 1-4 showcased a lot of important factors to consider for your fantasy team. It’s been a dreadful and confusing past couple of weeks for a ton of players. On the other hand, some players rode the first four weeks to perhaps the peak of their fantasy point season. Now, be sure to exercise caution if your team didn’t score a bunch in the first few weeks. Don’t make knee-jerk reactions. After all, it has only been one week. Although your team might have scored awful, your players might be primed for bounce-back weeks. The last thing you would want is to sell players who score a ton after you trade them. Additionally, you might have guys who scored a ton in the first few weeks but don’t have the circumstances week-in and week-out to continue that high scoring. (Cordarrelle). Whether your team has been beset by injuries or is the picture of health, you should be always trying to improve your team. It’s time to make the beginning push towards your championship.

Waivers are always a huge part. A lot of people want to pick up the “next best player” after only a few weeks of performance. This will encourage teams to sell other players who didn’t do too well to either make room on their team or because they think this new player, they got will be better. This’ll allow you to buy low on big names and get your team built for the long haul. On the other hand, if you have a player that flashed, you can sell high to capitalize on the hype of this player. You can get players in return you never would’ve dreamt of in return. That’s the key to making your team successful over a long season. In fact, this year will be the longest in NFL history due to it being 17 games. If you never have bought or participated in the stock market, this is a good practice run. You buy stocks (players) when they are at their lowest price. That way, you only increase your monetary value and improve your net worth (how good your team is). If you, do it right, you can “win” a lot (win a championship).

On the other hand, you want to predict when the stocks (players) are at their peak price (trade value). That’s because you want the most return you can get for your investment (player). That way you can ensure your team is always heading towards its peak throughout the season. You want your guys to peak to come playoff time. You want to win a championship. Of course, scoring a bunch early on is fun. Yet, if you can trade the high-risk guys who blew up one week and turn them into steady high-performing contributors’ week-in, week-out, do it. That’s how you win championships. You play the fantasy football market.

Now, it’s always helpful to have people give you some advice on players that should only rise in value or have hit their peak. As such, that’s why I’m here. I’m here to help guide you through the fantasy football season and decide who you should go try to trade for or trade away. So that way you can keep on winning and hopefully win a championship. Right now, you’re still assessing your team. Thus, you don’t want to react too quickly to veteran players who have had a rough start to the season. If they keep struggling past this week, it might be time to make some team-changing moves. That doesn’t mean you can’t take advantage of other people who want to get rid of them. Just FYI, the scoring is for PPR unless otherwise noted. FYI, all the stats come from our very own Fantasy Data. Here’s my opinion on who you should Buy Low/Sell High:

Quick Links

Buy Low

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons, Wide Receiver

What happened to Ridley? Where has Arthur Smith put him? Through four games, Calvin’s averaging 10.5 targets, 6.75 receptions, and 63.75 receiving yards per game. If we look at his 2020 start through 4 games played, he averaged 7.25 catches, 11.25 targets, and 121.25 yards. So what changed besides Julio Jones no longer being there? Well, Calvin’s getting more attention from the defense, a new offensive system, and a rather weird breakout from Cordarrelle Patterson. Arthur Smith has stopped using Ridley so deep. Through 4 games, Ridley’s average depth of target is only 6.1 while his average yards per reception is 9.55. There are some signs of encouragement though beyond just knowing that Ridley is a top-tier WR that will finish the year as a top-24 option. Last week against the WFT, Ridley had an insane amount of air yards as it amounted to 198 yards! That’s super impressive. It came out to an average depth per target of 15.2. This means that Ridley is starting to be used as a deep receiver in which Matt Ryan already trusts. Plus, his upcoming schedule vs the Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, and Saints should scare no one. Ridley’s at his bottom-barrel price. Go grab him and enjoy when he starts booming every week for your team and personally wins you a few weeks! Buy stocks low, sell them high!

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals, Wide Receiver

I get it, I truly do. You’re used to seeing Nuk put up eye-popping stats every week! He’s not doing that so far. He’s been dealing with a rib injury and had to deal with Jalen Ramsey last weekend. Now he has the 49ers on tap. The same 49ers that he dominated last year in two games by getting 22 receptions for 199 yards. That was with capable 49ers secondary too. Now they are all gone or injured which means this should be a week that Nuk eats! Nuk’s had at least 50 yards or 6 targets in every game so far. Kyler loves him and the Cardinals design plays just for him. Hopkins also has 3 touchdowns so far too. He’s had 1100 or more yards and 6 or more touchdowns for the past 5 years. I ain’t about to doubt him now. Not with how amazing this Cardinals team and offense is playing right now. If you have an owner in your league souring on Nuk because he’s “struggling” or “hurt”, go get Nuk. I’d gladly pay to acquire him. His stock may be a tiny bit low, but it’s about to explode! Finally, Nuk had 92 air yards last game which is great for predicting future success. You want guys who have higher air yards since that means they are getting targeted deeper. More deep passes mean more points for your fantasy team. Go get some DeAndre in your life!

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals, Wide Receiver

Well, this is your last chance to buy Tee Higgins before he comes back and starts dominating. He’s quite possibly the #1 in this offense, although Chase should assume that role soon. Tee’s missed the last two weeks due to a shoulder injury. He’s expected to play this week though. That’s why your time to buy low on Higgins is coming to an end. He’s an elite pass-catcher who can run routes that make corners fail their coverage. He’s excellent at contested catches and in the Red Zone. In the two games that Higgins played in, he’s averaged 15.9 points per game in PPR scoring. That’s great for your fantasy team. He’s a set-it and forget-it player. He’s an excellent talent that will produce when healthy. Owners of his might be getting nervous that he’s injured and Tyler Boyd is blowing up. However, Boyd will quiet down when Tee comes back. Boyd only averaged 10.25 points with Tee in the line-up. Don’t be scared. Also, you can’t predict injury, so go get Tee and enjoy him! After all, we all loved him last year. He’s only looked even better than last year.

Other Buy Low Candidates: Diontae Johnson, George Kittle, Damian Harris, Ceedee Lamb

Sell High

Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons, Wide Receiver/Running Back

Alex, I’ll take Breakouts that no one expected for a thousand, please. Cordarrelle has been the darling of the waiver wire so far this year. In fact, if you have him on your team and started him last week, he probably won your week. He’s been on absolute fire. Yes, he scored 34+ points in PPR leagues. Yes, it’s been a somewhat breakout year for the 30-year old player. However, I don’t trust this breakout. Why? Well, for starters he’s only playing on about 30% of the teams’ snaps every week. That’s just not sustainable to keep playing at the level he is for fantasy. Unless the Falcons decide to start playing him more, the breakout will soon come to an end. That’s why you sell Patterson for someone like Higgins or Diontae Johnson who won’t fall off a cliff. Sell your stocks, high, people. By the way, Patterson’s only averaging 5.5 targets and 6.75 rushing attempts per game. Um, that’s not realistic to be expecting fantasy gold from such few touches. He’s a low-end RB2 at best, but could easily be a wild roller-coaster every week. I’m not at Cedar Point. I don’t want to ride roller coasters in my lineup every week. I want consistency and stability. One final thing, as mentioned above with Calvin Ridley, who you should acquire as he’s about to blow up, Cordarrele’s isn’t getting any deep passes. He’s getting short ones, like last week when he averaged 9.2 yards per target. That’s not going to get it done unless he’s getting 10+ targets a game, which he isn’t. It’s been a great start and I’m rooting him on. I love the story and path he’s been on. I just don’t want him on my team when the Gold starts to rust. If you look below, he had one deep route, and the rest were under 20 yards or less. Plus, three touchdowns ain’t sustainable. Go get yourself a consistent performer and sell high on the hype!

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals, Wide Receiver

This might not make much sense at first. He just had an amazing game against the Jaguars by catching 9 passes for 118 yards. However, he was doing with Jamarr Chase not doing much, and Tee Higgins missing the game. Tee should be back this week, in which case will make Boyd slide to WR3 on the Bengals offense. While that’s still a fantasy-relevant position, it’s not one you can trust weekly. In the two games that Tyler played with both Chase and Higgins, he only had 10 receptions for 105 yards. That’s what he did this past week basically. So, can you truly expect him to be a consistent contributor week-in, week-out? I don’t. This will be your last chance to sell high on Boyd. I’d trade him for Corey Davis or Laviska Shenault, just to name some players. He’s going to have his blow-up weeks with a touchdown, but I don’t want to ride those waves. I highly doubt that the Bengals will be having three WR1/2s a week. We know that Tee and Chase are the top two in the offense. I love Boyd, but I’m selling him to win my redraft league right now. I can’t afford the risk to get stuck with a rollercoaster at my flex.

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Running Back

If you only read one thing from this paragraph, read this: The Bucs RB room is a mess. Gio Bernard is coming back soon, Ronald Jones is still there to snag touches, and Lenny isn’t guaranteed any specific role or touches in any game. If he screws up, such as a fumble, it’s quite possible he will barely play the rest of the game. Plus, Lenny’s not getting goal-line touches as Rojo got that last week. He ran in for the touchdown too. That doesn’t help your fantasy team. Don’t get me wrong, Leonard’s a great running back. However, I just don’t trust the Bucs. That’s a weird thing to say, but it can’t be misstated that Lenny’s best game came against a weak defense and without Gronk. He got his most receiving yards on the year last week, along with his most rushing yards. I’d just much rather acquire another stable running back that is getting the same amount of touches a week. One last touch, Lenny’s only gotten 20+ touches as a Buccaneers player last week. That’s over a year’s worth of games. All of which were with Ronald Jones. I just don’t believe he’s going to be the bell cow. I’d sell Lenny for Chase Edmonds or another high-RB2 right away.

Other Sell High Candidates: Mike Davis, James Conner, Trey Sermon, Jared Cook, Allen Robinson

As always, I’m more than happy to talk on Twitter and Discord. Let me know your thoughts on these players if you managed to trade for/away from them. If you need thoughts on any trade, my DMs are open 18/7. I respond to everyone. Hope you win your week this week. Let’s have a successful fantasy football season this year. We are about to be two weeks into our Championship winning season! Let’s go win Week 5!

Of course,

May the Force be with You…