Buy Low/Sell High: Week 3
Well, folks, we made it to Week 3 of the 2021 NFL Season. Weeks 1 and 2 showcased a lot of important factors to consider for your fantasy team. It’s been a dreadful and confusing past couple of weeks for a ton of players. On the other hand, some players rode Weeks 1 & 2 to perhaps the peak of their fantasy point season. Now, be sure to exercise caution if your team didn’t score a bunch in week 1 or 2. Don’t make knee-jerk reactions. After all, it has only been one week. Although your team might have scored awful, your players might be primed for bounce-back weeks. The last thing you would want is to sell players who score a ton after you trade them. Additionally, you might have guys who scored a ton in Week 1 but don’t have the circumstances week-in and week-out to continue that high scoring. Whether your team has been beset by injuries or is the picture of health, you should be always trying to improve your team. It’s time to make the beginning push towards your championship.
Waivers in Week 1 are always a huge part. A lot of people want to pick up the “next best player” after only a one-week performance. This will encourage teams to sell other players who didn’t do too well to either make room on their team or because they think this new player, they got will be better. This’ll allow you to buy low on big names and get your team built for the long haul. On the other hand, if you have a player that flashed, you can sell high to capitalize on the hype of this player. You can get players in return you never would’ve dreamt of in return. That’s the key to making your team successful over a long season. In fact, this year will be the longest in NFL history due to it being 17 games. If you never have bought or participated in the stock market, this is a good practice run. You buy stocks (players) when they are at their lowest price. That way, you only increase your monetary value and improve your net worth (how good your team is). If you, do it right, you can “win” a lot (win a championship).
On the other hand, you want to predict when the stocks (players) are at their peak price (trade value). That’s because you want the most return you can get for your investment (player). That way you can ensure your team is always heading towards its peak throughout the season. You want your guys to peak to come playoff time. You want to win a championship. Of course, scoring a bunch early on is fun. Yet, if you can trade the high-risk guys who blew up one week and turn them into steady high-performing contributors’ week-in, week-out, do it. That’s how you win championships. You play the fantasy football market.
Now, it’s always helpful to have people give you some advice on players that should only rise in value or have hit their peak. As such, that’s why I’m here. I’m here to help guide you through the fantasy football season and decide who you should go try to trade for or trade away. So that way you can keep on winning and hopefully win a championship. Right now, you’re still assessing your team. Thus, you don’t want to react too quickly to veteran players who had a rough Week 1 or 2. That doesn’t mean you can’t take advantage of other people who want to get rid of them. Just FYI, the scoring is for PPR. FYI, all the stats come from our very own Fantasy Data. Here’s my opinion on who you should Buy Low/Sell High:
Quick Links
Buy Low
A.J. Brown, Titans, Wide Receiver
Slippery hands and/or butterfingers have created this situation that fantasy owners are having with A.J. Brown. If Brown is having fun with what’s going on, why aren’t you? Drops are a part of his game. He’s averaged around 63% for his catch rate in his career. That means he is going to drop a few balls. Yet, the talent is still there. He’s healthy and has two 1,000 yards+ receiving yards in his career. Need I remind you that he’s the top receiving option on the Titans who will be needing to throw plenty despite Derrick Henry due to their defense. The defense has given up two straight 30+ point scores to opponents. Yes, the Titans will be in catch-up mode plenty. Also, don’t forget his massive air yards he’s getting through two weeks. He’s seen almost 40% of the team’s air yards. Air Yards are the yards the ball travels through the air before being caught. If you look below at AJB’s route chart, observer how many are beyond 15 yards. The deeper, the better with fantasy. These are great signs. With wide receivers in fantasy, the larger the air yards, the better they are for fantasy. AJB is about to explode over these next three weeks as he faces the Jets and Jaguars in two of those games. His price is about to skyrocket and go hang out with Elon in space. Buy now while you still can. If you can get AJB for a guy like Tyler Lockett or Mike Williams and another piece, DO IT NOW.
George Kittle, 49ers, Tight End
Have we forgotten that this is scary George Kittle? The guy who has no qualms about sacrificing his body for an extra yard? The guy who has absolutely won your fantasy team many weeks in the past? I know I sure haven’t forgotten that. Yet, I’m seeing so many people trying to sell Kittle right now after two “mediocre” starts to the season. It’s like they haven’t discovered the nuclear wasteland that is the tight-end land. At least Kittle is getting multiple catches every game, can’t say that about Mike Gesicki or Cole Kmet. Kittle’s gotten 9 targets through two games and has caught 8 of them. That’s effcient and helping your fantasy team a lot. The targets will rise as the 49ers get their offense syncing once again. He’s facing the Packers this week who have already given up three touchdowns to tight ends so far this year. I completely expect Kittle to keep doing damage against that defense. Not to mention that Kittle is going to get hot again. The 49ers will get going. When that happens, the buy window is gone. Capiche. Hence why you buy Kittle now from a panicked owner who wants to sell. Take that “load” off their team. Then, watch that “load” blow up and help your team win week-in and week-out. Buy his stock cheap and watch that price and your win total raise too. There’s no reason to not expect Kittle to finish with 80+ catches and 1,000+ yards by the end of the season. After all, don’t forget that before the season he was a consensus top-three tight end. In my opinion, he still is! Buy Low before you can’t go low no more.
Antonio Gibson, Football Team
So, you’re worried that J.D. McKissic is about to take a ton of work from Antonio Gibson and the WFT offense? I certainly don’t blame you. He did get 6 targets last week and played in the 2-minute offenses. Yet, Antonio Gibson played the other 28 minutes of each half. Don’t forget that Gibby is still learning the running back position. He was a wide receiver in college. The fact that he’s arguably already a top-12 running back in the NFL speaks to his talent. Gibson’s going to get his run. He’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry so far which is terrific. He’s also gotten 7 targets through two games which is equal to McKissic’s total. That showcases that Gibby isn’t being shut out of the passing game. Antonio’s averaging 16.5 carries for 79.5 yards per game which is pretty good considering he’s played two rather good rushing defenses in New York and Chargers’. If you take that 79.5 and times it by 17 to find his final projected rushing total, it’s over 1,350 yards. That’s a LOT. That’s without touchdowns or receptions too. Considering he’s crossed 60% or more snap share in both games this year foreshadows a huge year for Gibby, health included. He only played 60% or more snaps in two games last year. He’s equaled that already. If you can get Gibson on a discount right now after McKissic had a big game and casted a large shadow on Gibby then take that discount and run. Don’t forget that Gibson was likely drafted in the 2nd round. Pounce on that opportunity! Remember, you buy stocks when they are at their cheapest and this is the cheapest Gibby will be all year most likely. Buy low on Gibson right now.
Honorable Mentions: Justin Herbert, Ryan Tannehill, Allen Robinson, Alvin Kamara, and Jonathan Taylor.
Sell High:
Devin Singletary, Bills, Running Back
Hey folks, quick question, have you trusted a Bills running back at all in the past three or so years? No? Then, why in the world would you start trusting one now? Devin’s massive touchdown run Sunday against the Dolphins gave you your window to go trade him right now! He’s still in a timeshare committee with Zack Moss, who has the goal-line duties on lockdown mind you. Therefore, you need Devin breaking off big runs constantly and/or getting tons of passing work. There are two problems with that goal in mind. The first is that Devin just doesn’t get enough work to take advantage of his 5.3 yards per carry average in his career. He averages 11 carries a game. That’s good enough for flex-consideration weekly, maybe. You’re needing him to get a lot of passing work or a touchdown in order for him to be an RB2 or better. Don’t forget that you can’t trust touchdowns to happen weekly. They aren’t a good predictor of how well a player will do. That’s especially due to the fact that he isn’t a goal-line back who will be put in position to get those short-yardage touchdowns. So, you have to rely on passing work. Good luck with that as he averages 2.4 receptions per game. In today’s pass-catching running back frenzy of fantasy football, that’s pathetic. Therefore, if you have him on your team, you need to sell high while the interest is there. Don’t forget you sell stocks when the price is at the highest it’s been in a while. That’s right now. Don’t let people be reminded that Moss had two touchdowns last weekend. Singletary is in a confusing timeshare where he needs a massive play a week in order to maintain fantasy relevance. In fact, while his 82 yards are great in general last week, 46 of those yards came on his big-touchdown run. That means he had 12 carries for a rather average 36 yards. Sell him now before you regret it. If I can get an RB2 like Javonte Williams, Kareem Hunt, Miles Sanders, or Chase Edmonds, I’d do it in a heartbeat.
Mike Williams, Chargers, Wide Receiver
Of course, the “free-agent-to-be year blowup” is real. Players have been found to play up to their abilities when a paycheck is on the line. However, that doesn’t mean that Mike Williams is truly this dominant player he’s shown to be through two weeks. For starters, he’s healthy which is something he’s had trouble with in years past. Additionally, in his 4-year career to date, he only has had one 1,000 yd+ season. Secondly, he’s averaged a 59% catch rate throughout his career so far. This year, he’s averaging a 68% catch rate. That’s a rather dramatic increase and unless he had a hand replacement surgery during the off-season gives you reason to be suspicious on how well he’s catching the ball. Yes, it’s a new offensive system, but that doesn’t mean that a player suddenly starts catching like he never has before. Finally, it’s not like Mike Williams isn’t known for being a big high-low fantasy football receiver. Three times last season, he had 17+ points in a game. How about the other 13 games? Not one of them came close to 17. What about 2019? He had 4 games above 14 points. The rest were all below. In 2018, he had 4 blow-up games while helping players lose in the other 12 games. This is a recurring pattern. You can say that he’s running different routes and being used in different ways and that may be true. Yet, do you want to take the risk? I completely understand if you want to see if Williams is for real. I wouldn’t blame you. I’m even interested in seeing if he is for real. Despite that, if you can get a guaranteed wide receiver who is consistent, do it! If I can get Mike Evans, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, or another veteran WR who has proven his ability over years, I’d gladly do it. He has three tough matchups coming up with Kansas City, Cleveland, and Baltimore in the next four weeks. Why not sell now and get some really good pieces or piece and relieve yourself of a potential headache? This may end up as a win-win trade and you can’t be mad at that. Sell now and get that guaranteed value rather than risk it all. Remember, we want stocks that will only be going up and maintaining their price, not stocks that are swinging wildly.
Tyler Lockett, Seahawks, Wide Receiver
The king of high-low games has started off 2021 with an absolutely massive first two games. Tyler Lockett is known for having massive games for weeks in a row followed by becoming a ghost on the field for weeks at a time. He’s begun his multi-week dominance with two strong weeks against Indy and Tenn. Additionally, he’s in a new offense, one in which the run-game and Metcalf-game have been struggling. Once those two get figured out though, you can trust that Lockett’s dominance will dissipate. I highly doubt his 23.2 yards per reception will continue considering that’s more than 6 yards higher than his previous career-high (2018, 16.9). Plus, he’s faced multiple blown coverages in which he was alone by himself with multiple yards until the closest defender. Thus, it can be rather easy to quantify that this is a great start, but not anything long-lasting. Plus, he faces the Steelers, Saints, and Rams in three of his next five games. We know that the Metcalf train is coming. When that happens, don’t be caught holding Lockett as he goes on a multi-streak of starts where you’re wondering if he’s even startable. In fact, in 10 of his games last season, he had less than 12 points. When we look at 2019, he had 8 games with less than 12 points, including a zero. Back in 2018, he had 5 games above 15 points, and the rest below. If you’re trusting Lockett and this “new” offense by Shane Waldron, then, by all means, keep him. I just have been burned far too many times by Lockett to truly believe that he’s going to do this the rest of the year. As we can see, Lockett will win you weeks. On the flip side, he will lose you weeks too. In fantasy football, a few of variables that can go big or low are great. Yet, I don’t want a 20+ point swing from week to week. Right now, you can sell Lockett for some big-name WRs like Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, Courtland Sutton, or DJ Moore. Give me those guaranteed target hogs rather than a risky coin-toss every week. If you keep him, I hope he does great for you. I just don’t trust him too. I’d rather have consistency.
Honorable Mentions: Rob Gronkowski, Marvin Jones, Michael Pittman Jr., and Zack Moss (timeshare with Singletary).
As always, I’m more than happy to talk on Twitter and Discord. Let me know your thoughts on these players if you managed to trade for/away from them. If you need thoughts on any trade, my DMs are open 18/7. I respond to everyone. Hope you win your week this week. Let’s have a successful fantasy football season this year. We are about to be two weeks into our Championship winning season!
Of course,
May the Force be with You…
