Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
As I approach my 28th season playing this game within a game, I realize I have spent nearly two-thirds of my life playing Fantasy Football. At this point in my experience, I may sometimes fall victim to my intuitions and can muscle-memory myself through a draft without too much thought. Sometimes the result will work but I like to refresh this article every year to remind myself how to put together a solid game plan for each new year. In one of my former lives, I used to train new bartenders at the place I worked. Doing so, I saw the enthusiasm and hunger they had for becoming a great bartender. When I scroll through Twitter and read tweets from the younger generation of fantasy-heads, it’s refreshing to see the new approaches and ideas that are being shared. That is the type of stuff that reinvigorates and brings me that energy back. While there is plenty of emerging ideas to chew on out there in the fantasy universe, there are a few constant reminders I give myself and would like to share with you all. These are my tips and strategies for 2021 fantasy drafts. The focus is primarily on Re-Draft, but there is some carry-over into Best Ball that can be sourced from this as well.
Have a Cheat Sheet, Rankings List, or Draft Matrix
If you’re a seasoned player and can build your own projections, fantasy rankings, and tiers – do it and stick to them! If you’re not quite to that point, find rankings and projections you can rely on. You can start with FantasyData’s PPR Rankings or use Fantasy Data’s Projections to build your own cheat sheet. It is also advisable to look at multiple analysts’ rankings as you go through your process. This is valuable because you can see different perspectives on a player. Not all of your league mates will be using the same cheat sheet or have the same opinions, so this is a way to calibrate a range of values for each player. For the players you like, look at the higher end of the range to see where you should probably take that guy if you want to have the best chance at landing them. You can also begin to plot out where you will need to take your value picks.
Once you have a list, re-order it into tiers so that you are visualizing the draft in chunks and not a run-on list. For this, I will create a Draft Matrix (2021 example here) for myself. I’ll place players in a grid with axes of Round and Position and place a player in the box that corresponds to the earliest round I’m willing to draft them. Along with that, I may have some sort of consensus ADP list, or use the draft site’s default rankings list to plan out when I want to pluck “My Guys” before someone else does. This gives me a unique look at the draft that none of my competition is using if they’re following the 1-250 player rankings on a cheat sheet or website list. I will have players listed on that sheet that I more than likely will not draft in the round they are placed, but I have them on there anyway so that in live, sit-down drafts I can use it to cross players off as we go. Often, I will highlight players before the draft that I want to specifically target, if possible.
Do Some Research
Take a look at your cheat sheet or rankings list and try to understand why players are ranked where they are. If you don’t understand why someone is ranked so high or seems too low, get online and start Googling or doing Twitter searches to find out if you agree with the ranking. Do the same with any player or team you are unfamiliar with. I have a list of beat writers for all 32 teams pinned to my Twitter profile that can be an excellent resource. You can search the list by typing in the player name followed by a space and then list:majesstik1/ with the team abbreviation after the forward-slash. As you begin to fill in the blanks for each player you need to, then you will start to get a better idea of who you think is getting drafted too high, or too low.
Have an Opinion, but Be Adaptable
Once you’ve completed some research you should have a pretty good idea of how you feel about certain players, and teams, and what some of your favorite targets might be. As you form your opinions, don’t allow yourself to get tied down by them. Keep your opinions loose enough that when someone with a differing opinion or additional information you hadn’t considered before shares it, then you can decide for yourself which opinion (yours or theirs) is more useful and move forward in that way. Try to be a witness to any cognitive biases you have and remain objective as you consume additional information and ultimately end up with your final opinions for your draft(s).
Be Like Water
Let’s say the draft is moving along but all our targets are getting sniped before our picks. If this occurs, we’ll need to tap into our inner Bruce Lee and allow ourselves to “Be like water making its way through cracks. Do not be assertive, but adjust to the object, and you shall find a way around or through it. If nothing within you stays rigid, outward things will disclose themselves.” Let us not get upset if the draft doesn’t flow our way, instead realize we thought about what we would do in this worst-case scenario well ahead of time. If we planned to go RB heavy up front but none of the backs we like are falling to our slots, then take an elite WR or TE and see how the next pick goes. If the draft continues to leave us without our top targets, then we have to take the best available players and not fall into taking Melvin Gordon in the 4th round because we are desperate for an RB. At some point, the RBs will fall our way, and if that means we have to take 8 of them from round 5 on, then so be it. Perhaps we can evaluate rosters at the end of the draft and see if we can make a trade with another owner for an RB. The key is to be a witness to yourself as you draft. Ask yourself if the pick makes sense before you call it out or push the draft button. If it doesn’t, then do what does make sense.
Understanding Fantasy Economics
Fantasy drafts abide by basic economic concepts like supply and demand of an asset, alternative uses for scarce resources, as well as opportunity cost. Each player is an asset of “paper human” capital and is considered a scarce resource (there’s only one of each player available per draft) and we must decide at what cost we are willing to select one asset over another. Let’s say RB over WR for example, or looking at two players within the same position. The concept of supply and demand is going to force less valuable assets up the board due to scarcity, mainly at the RB position. With the NFL trending toward fewer alpha-backs or majority-share leaders in a running-back committee, the top-tier RB assets will be in high demand and will be gone before the back end of the second round in a 12 team league. Thus, we must make important decisions early on that will affect the rest of our draft. Would we rather take an elite WR1 early (ie. Tyreek Hill or DeAndre Hopkins), or do we forgo the elite WR1 and take a second-tier RB (ie. Aaron Jones or Cam Akers) in the back end of round 1? If we decide on the WR, then what are our chances of making up a productive RB group in the following rounds? One thing we should consider is the inherently deeper pool of WRs there are compared to RBs, so if we have to over-draft an RB by only a few spots, then we have a better shot of making up for the WR later because there will be more to choose from.
Watch the Draft Board
As we are navigating our way through our drafts, we need to anticipate position runs as the draft progresses. This can give us an edge. This idea can be more successful the closer we are to either side of the “turns” in a snake-style draft. If there are two teams with two picks between us and our next pick, and both have already drafted a TE or two, we can take that calculated risk that we can hold off on a TE and take another player we’re eyeing instead. Positional runs typically occur with the “onesie” positions. In some cases, you might want to be ahead of the run and get a player from the first tier of that onesie position. If our draft board has a group of players we’re comfortable with waiting to see who makes it back around to us at our next pick, we can grab that QB ahead of the 2 guys after us who might not have one yet and trust we’ll probably see one of the players in that group we passed on come back to our next pick. If we’re at the ends of a snake draft, it’s usually better to be the one who starts a run, rather than getting caught at the tail-end of one – unless you’re targeting your cut-off.
Have “Cut-offs”
Cut-offs are the last player at a position you are willing to take as your starter and usually applies to the onesie positions. As the “Late-Round QB” drum has gotten louder over the years, it becomes easier to use this strategy at that position. This year my QB1 cut-off looks like it’ll be between Stafford or Tannehill. Both of these guys have 8th round ADP at the moment and allow us to use our earlier picks to build an RB & WR group we can feel confident in. In Best Ball, I might take both of these guys with consecutive picks as a QB1 combo play, since we can’t play waivers in Best Ball. TE is another of the “onesie” positions that we can use this strategy with. Robert Tonyan is going in the 9th/10th round area, which is about the time I’m starting to look at the TE positions in drafts. I like Tonyan and Hunter Henry in that part of the draft. If I’m putting TE off longer, Eric Ebron is falling into the 13th round area and has TE1 potential playing on a team that has a pretty tough schedule for WRs and will be without competition from McDonald this year.
Wait on Selecting a DST, IDPs, or Kicker
In Re-Draft leagues where you’re not forced to take a K, DST, or IDP to complete draft requirements imposed by the league rules or website constraints, then don’t take them! This strategy is stronger the earlier you have to draft. Instead, take extra offensive players that may increase in value with an injury or suspension ahead of the player we took, or after roster cuts pave the way. This could land us a diamond for our rosters, or we can use this new value as leverage in trades and try to produce a moderate upgrade to a position by throwing out a bunch of 2 for 1 trade proposals. It also gives us a buffer from preseason injuries in the event we are the one losing a starter. If nothing transpires to create value from this, simply wait until just before waivers lock for the week and drop a player to pick up a DST/K/IDP. This way we’ll have everything to field a starting line-up for week 1 and the player we drop can’t easily be scooped up by a needy league-mate.
Create a Successful Plan
It may sound overzealous, but we can easily jot down our opinions into a “Draft Plan” by either writing out a paragraph for each position or for how you want to approach each round – or both. An example of a Draft Plan is below and can be easily rewritten with your opinions stated. The way I like to do this is to break out each position and give myself a guide of how many players I like at the position and where they are going relative to consensus ADP. As our draft goes along we can reference our plan to stay focused on where key opportunities may arise. Whether that’s snatching up one of the better QBs a round before you planned to because they’ve already fallen too far, or keeping tabs on that late-round sleeper you are targeting so you know to keep drafting around that idea for later. One way to do this is to highlight them in your draft plan or on your draft board and note what round you will likely be able to draft them. Applying this concept, we can map out opportunity costs earlier in the draft and decide when to target the “onesie” positions like QB and TE.
EXAMPLE DRAFT PLAN:
QB – The 6 Elite/Near-Elite QBs are likely to go before I’m willing to spend up (Mahomes/Allen/Kyler/Dak/Russ/Lamar). I am comfortable passing on the next tier of QBs (Rodgers, Herbert, Brady) and waiting to see who either falls from that group or taking Stafford/Tannehill/Hurts as my QB1 in 1-QB leagues. If I need to draft a 2nd QB, then Baker and Wentz would be my top choices. If punting on QB2, then Cam, Darnold, and Daniel Jones will work.
RB – There are 5 “Alpha Backs” on the board (CMC, Cook, Henry, Saquon, and Zeke). I’ll take any of those three if they fall to my pick. Alvin Kamara should also see a lot of work and is a part of the top 6 picks for me. I will consider drafting Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, and Davante Adams ahead of Chubb, Taylor, Aaron Jones, and Cam Akers. In the mid-to-back-half of Rd2, I like Ekeler and CEH. I will consider Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Miles Sanders, and Antonio Gibson in Round 3. By Rd 3, I anticipate having 2 RBs and 1 WR. By Round 5 I prefer to have 3RB/2WR or 2RB/3WR and will consider the following RBs in rounds 4-5 (Raheem Mostert, D’Andre Swift, David Montgomery. Guys to target later include Tony Pollard, Lat Murray, Alex Mattison, James Conner, Nyheim Hines, Michael Carter, Philip Lindsay, and Darrell Henderson. In deeper drafts, consider J.D. McKissic, Darrel Williams, and Boston Scott
WR – There are 4 WRs I will consider taking in the late-1st/early-2nd round (Nuk, Hill, Adams, Diggs). Rd2/3 (Metcalf, Jefferson, Thomas, Ridley). I am willing to take Robert Woods in the mid-to-late 3rd round area due to conviction on his outlook. And so on…
TE – I am not likely to draft a TE high this year unless one falls in my lap at a great value. That leaves me looking at TEs in Rd8 or later which include Tonyan, Henry, Gronk, Jonnu, and Goedert. And so on…
DST – If you don’t have to draft one, then don’t. Otherwise, take this position with your last pick.
* Ideal start with the #1 pick: List a plan or two for your top 5 picks
* Ideal start with the #2 pick: Same as above, write an ideal plan. Do this for whatever your pick number is.
Summary
The sooner you start your player research, the better you will be able to strengthen your opinions about each player and establish how you wish to approach your draft(s). Work on the mental reps early in the process and refine your opinions for as long as you can. Determine what economic approach you wish to abide by. Will you take those scarce resources (RBs) early, possibly even reaching a little to do it, or will you find another way to use your buying power (picks/auction dollars)? Create a plan for the best and worst-case scenarios so you know what you should do in the moment. By writing out a plan like this you will stay focused on where players are normally going, where you want to take positions or players you like, and you will start to see value picks emerge when you are drafting. Sharpen your mind and your strategy and you will be fine. Best of luck to you this year and happy 2021 fantasy season!
