Fantasy Football RB Advanced Metrics Report: Week 9
Are you familiar with FantasyData’s Opportunity Share metric? It measures the percentage of the total team running back carries plus targets. The most dependable statistics for an RB from one season to the next are usage numbers. These include touches, rushing attempts, targets, and receptions. Total yardage also has a high probability to carry over from one season to the next. This is the first litmus test you should use when analyzing the RB position. Efficiency metrics such as yards per carry and yards per touch are useful to better understand a player’s ceiling with the volume he’s being given. They are best paired with a volume-based metric because alone they are a poor indicator of future efficiency. We will use the Fantasy Points Per Opportunity and Juke Rate metric. An opportunity in fantasy football is the combination of rushing attempts and targets. Juke Rate isolates a back’s on-field elusiveness and tackle-breaking power by dividing the total number of evaded tackles by the total number of touches (carries plus receptions). This article will tell you about six running backs who will exceed your expectations in Week 9.
Chase Edmonds
Edmonds has only played 41 percent of the Cardinals offensive snaps this season. He only has an opportunity share of 14 percent, but Edmonds is averaging an impressive 1.37 fantasy points per opportunity. Edmonds is averaging nearly 57 total yards per game is in a position to see an increased opportunity share this week with Kenyan Drake dealing with a high ankle sprain.
Chase Edmonds has as many 20-yard runs (three) as Kenyan Drake despite handling *90* fewer carries.
— Patrick Daugherty (@RotoPat) November 4, 2020
Edmonds only has a Juke Rate of 16.4% with nine evaded tackles, but is very elusive. He has three rushing attempts that has exceeded 15 or more yards. Edmonds faces a Dolphins defense that has allowed the seventh most PPR fantasy points per game (26.33) to running backs this season.
D’Andre Swift
Swift’s opportunity share and PPR fantasy production continue to trend up each week. He’s played 40% of the offensive snaps this season and has an opportunity share of 35.4% sharing the Lions backfield with future Hall of Fame running back Adrian Peterson. Swift only has a Juke Rate of eight percent this season, but is averaging 1.27 fantasy points per opportunity this season. He’s thriving as a receiver out of the backfield catching 23 of 29 targets so far this season. Swift has a plus matchup this week against the Vikings. Minnesota’s defense has allowed the third-most PPR fantasy points per game (118)
J.D. McKissic
When many think of the Washington Football Team’s backfield Antonio Gibson immediately enters their mind. McKissic (33.3%) and Gibson (32%) have an eerily similar Juke Rate. Both running backs averaging 0.87 fantasy points per opportunity. McKissic is being used more as a receiver out of the backfield with 33 targets. Both are viable options this week against a Giants defense that has allowed the 15th most PPR fantasy points per game (101)
Phillip Lindsay
Lindsay has had at least 79 rushing yards or a touchdown in three consecutive games. He only has an opportunity share of 41% this season. Lindsay’s (19) Juke Rate is nearly as high as Melvin Gordon (23) even though Gordon has nearly double the rushing attempts. Five of Lindsay’s 45 rushing attempts this season have exceeded 15 yards. He’s averaging an impressive two yards created per attempt. This metric tracks all yards above and beyond what was blocked. Yards created are generated by the runner after the first evaded tackle. Lindsay has a great matchup against the Falcons this week. The only defense that allows more PPR fantasy points per game than Atlanta (118) is the Seahawks (125).
David Montgomery
Montgomery hasn’t been a player you’ve been excited to use in lineups. He has an opportunity share of 70% and has played 73 percent of the Bears offensive snaps this season. Montgomery has been used as a bell cow since Tarik Cohen’s season ended with a torn ACL. He has a Juke Rate of 25% and has 36 evaded tackles this season while averaging a healthy 1.56 yards created per attempt. Montgomery is not athletically gifted enough to transcend poor offensive line play, but he’s averaging a respectable 0.67 fantasy points per opportunity. Montgomery has a great matchup against the Titans this week. Tennessee’s defense has allowed the 11th most PPR fantasy points per game (25) to running backs this season.
Leonard Fournette
Fournette leads the Buccaneers backfield in opportunity share (30%) over the last two games. He’s averaged 0.87 fantasy points per opportunity and 1.33 yards created per rushing attempt this season.
Leonard Fournette snatched some ankles 😤 @_fournette @Buccaneers
📺 #TBvsNYG on ESPN pic.twitter.com/XoKGceS1v2
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) November 3, 2020
Fournette is also being heavily used as a receiver out of the backfield. He’s caught 16 of 21 targets this season. Fournette is well-positioned to thrive against the Saints this week. New Orleans’ defense has allowed the 12th most PPR fantasy points per game (106) this season.
Conclusion
FantasyData has a wealth of statistical information available to you at your fingertips. Do you ever wonder how to weave all of the information together in order to make informed decisions for your fantasy football team? That’s the purpose behind the Advanced Metrics series that I’m writing this season. One way to approach any decision in fantasy football is to analyze two things. The first one revolves around the narrative. What are NFL Insiders, beat writers, and coaches saying. The second one revolves around the statistics, metrics, and other data. Take a moment to think of a piano. You can play music with one hand, but once you use both hands the music is even better. You should have the same mindset when it comes to managing your fantasy football team. If you have additional questions you can also refer to my fantasy football rankings or better yet reach out to me on Twitter for an immediate response (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium.
