Fantasy Football 2019: Seahawks WR Breakdown
Doug Baldwin will not only be remembered as one of the greatest wide receivers in Seattle Seahawks history but as one of the top undrafted wideouts of this era. Baldwin’s early retirement was viewed by many as a surprise but in the National Football League, the show must go on.
It won’t be easy for general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll to replace Baldwin’s significant role and volume, but the Seahawks were prepared and invested early draft capital in strengthening the receiving corps.
As fantasy footballers prepare to kick off another draft season, predicting how the new-look Seahawks offense will operate without their top slot receiver is one of this offseason’s burning questions.
Let’s look at Baldwin’s old role and try to forecast how the Seahawks offense will shape up in 2019.
Baldwin’s Contributions
Undrafted out of Stanford in 2011, Baldwin was signed by the Seahawks and earned a healthy 85 targets in a reserve role as a rookie. It wasn’t until the 2014 season that Baldwin would permanently move into the starting lineup as the team’s slot receiver.
After adding TE Jimmy Graham and speedy third-round rookie wideout Tyler Lockett to the lineup, Baldwin busted out in 2015, posting the first of what would be three-straight 100-plus target campaigns and leading the league with 14 touchdown grabs.
Baldwin’s WR10 finish in PPR scoring in 2015 also marked the first of three top-15 fantasy seasons. He quickly became a trusted fantasy WR1 who missed only one start in four seasons and became a popular WR1 target in the first three rounds.
| Year | Game | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | PPR | Rank |
| 2015 | 16 | 103 | 78 | 1069 | 13.7 | 14 | 268.9 | 10 |
| 2016 | 16 | 125 | 94 | 1128 | 12 | 7 | 249 | 8 |
| 2017 | 16 | 116 | 75 | 991 | 13.2 | 8 | 221.3 | 14 |
| 2018* | 13 | 73 | 50 | 618 | 12.4 | 5 | 174.5* | 34* |
* extrapolated to a 16-game pace
From 2015-2018, Baldwin averaged 104.3 targets, 952 receiving yards, and 8.5 touchdowns per season. Even through an injury-marred 2018 season, Baldwin still posted WR3 numbers and led many fantasy squads to titles with a strong showing in Week 15 and 16.
But those devastating groin and shoulder injuries that limited Baldwin to 13 games in 2018 ultimately led to the 30-year-old wideout’s release and subsequent retirement. While Baldwin’s departure came as a shock to most football fans, Seattle’s brass was proactive and used three 2019 NFL Draft picks to address the position.
2019 NFL Draft Additions
DK Metcalf slid all the way down to the final pick of the second round–far lower than most draftniks thought the former Ole Miss wideout would go. Metcalf is a freakish athlete with a chiseled physique, intimidating size (6-foot-3, 228), and ran an unheard of 4.33-second 40-yard dash. Metcalf’s weight-adjusted speed score of 133.3 is also a 99th-percentile figure.
Concerns about Metcalf’s hands, route-running, and cumbersome agility are likely the main factors that led to his fall into Day Two. By all account, Metcalf impressed during May’s rookie minicamp, making clean catches and snagging high balls out of the air. His footwork and routes seemed to also be vastly improved.
Fourth-rounder Gary Jennings (6-foot-1, 214) had a similar athletic profile to Metcalf. Good size and speed with an iffy showing in agility drills. His 126.5 SPARQ score placed Jennings in the 83rd percentile.
Jennings spent some time in the slot at West Virginia at posted an impressive 97/1096/1 line as a junior. He battled a high ankle sprain in 2018 but still caught 54 passes for 917 yards and scored 13 touchdowns. He’s got the speed and frame to be a solid possession receiver but may need some time to learn the nuances of an NFL offense.
Physically, seventh-round pick John Ursua out of Hawaii fits the bill as a slot receiver. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 178 pounds, Ursua isn’t big or fast enough to be a consistent outside threat like his fellow first-year teammates.
But Ursua made up for his diminutive size by posting an 89/1343/16 line as a junior at Hawaii. As impressive as those stats were, Ursua didn’t always have trusty hands and is going to have a lot of work to do to overcome his physical limitations against bigger and faster NFL defenders.
Predicting Roles
With Baldwin’s release, the Seahawks now have 142 vacated targets from last season. That 35.5% rate stands as the 12th-most in football. Russell Wilson’s excellence as a passer, a committee backfield and the tight ends playing little or no role in Seattle’s passing game tells us that the vast majority of those available targets will go to the club’s new-look receiving corps. The Seahawks’ 242 snaps in three-wide personnel last season trailed only the Rams, by a single snap.
Along with the incoming rookie class, in-house veterans Tyler Lockett, David Moore, Jaron Brown, and Amarah Darboh will also compete for roles. If we’ve learned anything from Seattle’s regime, it’s that draft-billing and past accomplishments are no guarantee of future playing time. With the Seahawks, we can expect a wide-open battle with the summer’s best performers winning out.
Tyler Lockett is now the team’s unquestioned No. 1 wideout. Coming off of a season in which he finished as the WR11 despite a mere 71 targets, Lockett should be the main benefactor of Baldwin’s absence. Triple-digit looks should be in order, which makes Lockett a popular mid-round draft target with top-10 upside.
But one has to wonder if more targets will sap Lockett’s off-the-charts efficiency. Lockett’s 81.4% catch rate was second in the league and he led the NFL with a whopping 13.8 yards-per-target. With six catches of 40-plus yards, Lockett trailed only Tyreek Hill in big plays.
At 5-foot-10 and 182 yards, the most likely course of action is that Pete Carroll will move Lockett into the slot. While this will be good for his overall volume, there’s little chance Lockett will repeat those eye-popping downfield plays from inside.
Moving Lockett inside frees DK Metcalf up to likely start on the outside in Week 1. Metcalf’s ability to break free from press coverage and blazing speed will make him a dangerous downfield threat, while his size and frame give Russell Wilson the best red zone target he’s had since Jimmy Graham led the NFL in red zone looks and scored 10 times back in 2017.
David Moore played 58% of Seattle’s snaps last season and tied for second on the team with five touchdown receptions. Three of Moore’s five scores came when he was lined up wide, from the right side. Combined with Metcalf’s extensive experience lining up almost exclusively from the left at Ole Miss, and that seems like the most likely scenario to open the season. Moore’s 17.1 yards per catch actually topped Lockett, so look for a few TD bombs.
Tight end is a little murkier. While Jimmy Graham excelled for Seattle in 2017, the Seahawks haven’t really featured the position throughout most of Russell Wilson’s tenure. Last year, four different tight ends combined to corral 50 out of 71 targets for 591 yards and eight scores.
Nick Vannett led the way in looks, catches, and yards while playing 49.6% of Seattle’s offensive snaps. Ed Dickson’s role increased as the season wore on and he made an impact in the red zone on play-action flips.
The wild card at tight end could be Will Dissly who averaged a team-high 19.5 yards per catch before suffering a patellar injury that ended his season. He’s got some solid downfield ability but the history of recovery from such a devastating injury isn’t encouraging. Most likely, we’ll see Vannett lead the team in playing time but fail to make enough of a weekly impact to be fantasy relevant.
Running backs combined to account for 85 (19.9%) of Seattle’s targets last season. Mike Davis led the way with a 42/34/214/1 line but has moved on to Chicago. Chris Carson should play a bigger role on all three downs but the Seahawks will also mix in second-year back Rashaad Penny liberally.
Veterans C.J. Prosise and J.D. McKissic will likely battle for change-of-pace duties and a potential third-down role. 2019 sixth-rounder Travis Homer caught 37 balls over the past two seasons at Miami(FL) and flashed solid receiving chops at rookie minicamp. The Seahawks have a history of promoting unheralded players ahead of incumbent starters, so don’t rule out Homer as a late-round sleeper.
