Bradley Stalder Fantasy Rankings for Week 8
We’re officially halfway through the season, now entering Week 8 of the fantasy football season. In perhaps the wildest storyline of the season so far, the winner of Week 8’s Carolina-Atlanta matchup will have sole possession of 1st place in the NFC South Division with the 27-22 loss of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night. The coldest streak of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tom Brady era has led to speculation that Tom Brady and other veteran players such as Leonard Fournette will start to play fewer snaps or all-together cede starters work near the end of the season. While that didn’t happen in Week 8, ranking Tampa Bay Buccaneers fantasy-relevant players moving forward may not be such a cut-and-dry task. This is a narrative worth monitoring moving forward from Week 8.
I’ve continued to find success in the Fantasy Pros Accuracy Rankings Contest. Last week, I finished 56th overall in the contest. Entering Week 8, I’m 24th overall in accuracy out of 211 fantasy rankers year-to-date, including 9th most accurate ranker for wide receivers. As time is running out, I am starting to find myself rank more aggressively on players, trying to squeeze out every edge so that I can finish in the top-10 this season. The difference between #10 ranked and #55 ranked on a week is only about 18 spots of accuracy gap, so making bigger and more correct calls in Week 8 and beyond hopefully will make the difference in this contest.
Just a reminder that I also take part in advising FantasyData’s weekly Rankings. They’re an excellent resource for anyone looking to win their league along with their player projections and advanced metrics.
Follow me on this journey as I highlight a few players I want to be higher or lower than the consensus for Week 8.
Higher Ranked QB
Andy Dalton – I’m not chasing last week’s fantasy points. I promise. But, seeing the QB2 overall finish in Week 7, even without Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas, doesn’t hurt. It’s not the fantasy points; it’s the matchup that I’m chasing. Dalton and the New Orleans Saints square off against the Las Vegas Raiders, who give up the most fantasy points, 2nd most passing TDs, and 7th most passing yards to quarterbacks on the season through seven games. For reference, no quarterback against the Raiders has finished with fewer than 19 fantasy points, fewer than 237 pass yards, or fewer than 2 pass TDs. Chris Olave, who leads the NFL with 153 air yards per game, is healthy and fully recovered from the concussion he suffered a few weeks ago. Also, the game-script should favor a higher fantasy score as this is the 2nd highest O/U on the Sunday slate. Additionally, the Saints are 7th in pace of play while the Raiders are 17th– setting up for a higher volume of plays, especially passing plays downfield. Finally, it’s clear that this Saints starting QB role is Dalton’s moving forward as Jameis Winston is fully recovered from his injury, and yet Dalton remains the starter. Andy Dalton is my Quarterback 6 on the week.
Andy Dalton is the consensus QB20.
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Lower-Ranked QB
Jimmy Garoppolo – Surprisingly, Jimmy G has been a top-9 QB each of the last three weeks, facing off against the Panthers, Falcons, and Chiefs– not especially difficult matchups. The Falcons give up the 2nd most fantasy points, the Chiefs give up the 3rd most fantasy points, while the Panthers give up the 13th most passing yards to QBs on the season. That changes Week 8 when the 49ers face off against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams only give up 13.1 fantasy points, the 8th fewest pass TDs, and 8th fewest pass yards. In fact, when Jimmy Garoppolo played against the same Rams in Week 4, he finished as the QB22, going 16/27, 239 pass yards, and only 14 fantasy points. Not only is it a tough matchup, but Deebo Samuel may not be available for this contest. Jimmy G is my QB20 on the week.
Garoppolo is the consensus QB14.
Higher Ranked RB
Tony Pollard – In the only game of Tony Pollard’s career where he’s played 60% of snaps or more, Pollard rushed 12 times for 69 yards and 2 TDs, while also corraling 6 passes on 9 targets for 63 yards. He finished as the #2 Running back that week in fantasy points. With Ezekiel Elliott trending toward not playing in this one, Pollard projects as a mid-tier RB1, even though the consensus has not caught up. Even in a part-time role this year, Pollard has finished as a top-29 RB each of the last 3 weeks, and 5 of the last 6 weeks including the #3 overall RB finish Week 2 against Cincinnati. The matchup also seems good with the Dallas OL projected by PFF to have an 8% run block advantage over the Chicago DL. Additionally, the Chicago Bears have given up 22.8 fantasy points per game to the running back this season, 6th most in the NFL. With no other notable running back on the depth chart (someone may be elevated from the practice squad), Pollard will rank in the top-5 this week among all RBs.
Pollard is the consensus RB14.
Lower-Ranked RB
Nick Chubb – Chubb is on pace for a career year, projecting career highs in rush yards, total TDs, and fantasy points per game. He leads all running backs in rush yards, total TDs, evaded tackles, breakaway runs, and expected points added. But the Bengals don’t give up many fantasy points to rushing RBs. The Bengals only give up 16 fantasy points per game to the running back position, 5th fewest in the NFL. Additionally, they only give up 81 rush yards and 4 yards per carry, which ranks 6th fewest as well. But even more impressive, the Bengals tighten up on RBs around the goal line, giving up the 3rd fewest rush TDs on the year and allowing the 4th lowest TD% on carries within the 5-yard line. With the Bengals favored by 3 points on the road, the game script for Chubb may prove it difficult to see a ceiling week. Chubb has finished outside the top 10 of running backs in four of his seven games, three of which were during losses. For this game against Cincinnati, lowering expectations slightly for Chubb seems appropriate. Chubb is my RB11 for this week.
Chubb is the consensus RB4.
Higher Ranked WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown – St. Brown was primed for a massive game in Week 7, but had to leave early due to the enhanced concussion protocols. Coach Dan Campbell stated that St. Brown hadn’t sustained a concussion, and is ready to roll in Week 8 against the Miami Dolphins– a plus matchup for fantasy wide receivers. Miami allows the 8th most fantasy points (30.3), 9th most TDs, and 11th most yards. But even with dealing with an ankle injury and ataxia, St. Brown still ranks 2nd among all WRs in target rate (34.5%), 2nd in fantasy points per route run, and 11th in fantasy points per game. Take out his two games of limited snaps due to injuries, and St. Brown averages a 18.3 half-PPR score, a top-4 rate among receivers on the season. With a game projected for the highest O/U (51.5) on the Sunday slate, a shootout could be in the works for the Lions offense, of which St. Brown is a centerpiece. Additionally, the presence of D’Andre Swift will keep defenses honest when defending routes close to the line of scrimmage. St. Brown is my WR5 on the week.
St. Brown is the consensus WR12.
Lower-Ranked WR
Tyler Lockett – Facing the Giants defensive backs has not been an easy task this year; they only give up the 3rd fewest fantasy points per game, 3rd fewest receiving TDs, 4th fewest receptions, and 6th fewest receiving yards. While DK Metcalf is projected to be out due to a knee injury, even increased targets for Lockett may not necessarily lead to more fantasy points. In games this season where Lockett has at least 8 targets (4 such games), Lockett averages 7 receptions for 80 yards– finishing on average as a weekly finish of WR30. The problem is TDs. Geno has only thrown 11 TDs in 7 games so far this season. Pace of play may also factor into the opportunity for Lockett, as the Seahawks rank 21st in pace of play while the Giants rank 22nd. A slow, run-first game script may not play into a boom formula for Lockett. Finally, the home-road splits are stark for Lockett, who averages a WR23 finish on the road but a WR57 finish at home, and faces the Giants at Lumen Field on Sunday. Lockett is my WR25 for the week.
Lockett is the consensus WR16.
Higher Ranked TE
Irv Smith, Jr. – If this isn’t the week for Irv Smith, I’m not certain when that will come. While Smith hasn’t had his huge “breakout” yet, he’s trending that way and into a favorable matchup. Smith played his highest snap share of the year in Week 6 against Miami where he played 69.4% of snaps. Irv Smith has eclipsed 60% of snaps each of the last three weeks going into his week 7 bye. Going into Week 8, Smith is 10th among TEs in Red Zone Targets, 9th in total TDs, 4th in target separation with 2.79 yards of separation at the point of the ball arriving but ranks 21st with 3.8 fantasy points per game. The Cardinals, who square off against the Vikings in Week 8, give up 16.9 fantasy points per game to TEs on the season, 2nd most among all defenses. Last Thursday, Juwan Johnson finished with 5 receptions and 2 TDs as the TE2 against the Cardinals. And, an elite ceiling game is within the range of outcomes for Irv Smith: 4 of Smith’s last 19 games have resulted as the TE4 or better on the week. In a week where Travis Kelce and Gerald Everett are on bye, and David Njoku is expected to miss due to a high ankle sprain, Irv Smith, Jr. slots in as my TE5.
Smith, Jr. is the consensus TE12.
Lower-Ranked TE
Dawson Knox – Chasing TDs is a dangerous game. Finishing with 9 TDs in 15 games last season, Knox has a singular score through his first 5 contests. Unsurprisingly, his 10.5% targets share and 9.7% red zone share haven’t translated into big fantasy scoring weeks despite the offensive juggernaut that is the Buffalo Bills. Knox ranks TE33 in yards per route run, TE25 in yards per team pass attempt, and TE30 in fantasy points per route run. With a low target share, mediocre target distance (TE14), and decreased route participation from last year, the consensus optimism for Knox seems out of place. Especially this week against the Green Bay Packers, Knox may find it difficult to score fantasy points as the Packers give up the 3rd fewest points to TEs on the season. The Packers allow only 3.1 receptions, 28.7 receiving yards, and have not allowed a TD to TEs this season. Knox will continue to play the majority of TE snaps ahead of Quintin Morris, but that doesn’t mean he should be counted on in your fantasy lineups this week. Knox is my TE23.
Knox is the consensus TE13.
