Golf Betting Tips for the Mayakoba Golf Classic
The PGA Tour shifts from Georgia to Playa del Carmen, Mexico, for the 14th edition of the Mayakoba Golf Classic. This field is the strongest that we’ve seen at this event since its inception – a popular theme we have seen play out at several tournaments during pandemic play since June when the PGA Tour returned from its March shutdown.
The 2020 Mayakoba Golf Classic features a field of 132 golfers – there’s $7.2M on the line this week, the winner receives $1.296M and banks 500 valuable FedEx Cup points. This year’s tournament will again be played at the El Camaleon Golf Club – it measures 7,039 yards, is a par 71, and the greens are paspalum. Place bets on golfers who are strong off the tee, on approach, score well on par 5s, can make lots of birdies, and are good at avoiding bogeys. Over the past 7 years, the winning score has averaged -19.7 under par, so you want players who can go low and attack pins.
Below you will find two players from each of five different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
20 to 1 and lower
Justin Thomas (6.5 to 1) – Thomas has been threatening to win again with a recent stretch of T2, T8, T12, T2, and was 4th alone at the Masters in his most recent start. He last appeared at this event 6 years ago and finished T23, but his game is much more polished now and he should be firmly on the leaderboard come Sunday. I feel confident in placing an outright bet on Thomas this week, and you should too.
Abraham Ancer (20 to 1) – Mexico’s top-ranked golfer has been a staple at this tournament and has played well – Ancer’s worst finish in the past three years was a T21, he was T9 three years ago, and earned a T8 last year. He was in the final group at the Masters last month and seems poised to do very well this week – I’m banking on a top 5 from him.
Avoid: Tony Finau (18 to 1) – Finau has been decent lately but hasn’t had a top 10 since the U.S. Open (four starts ago), and his track record at this event isn’t too hot with two missed cuts in his last three starts here – he did have a T16 here two years ago but, regardless, his game isn’t a great fit at this track.
21 to 1 – 40 to 1
Russell Henley (22 to 1) – Henley has two top 4’s in his last four events, four top 9’s in his last 8 starts, and his worst finish during that stretch is a T30. He was T29 here two years ago and I see a finish much higher than that this time around since his game is in great shape right now, and his supreme accuracy will prove valuable this week.
Corey Conners (35 to 1) – Conners doesn’t have a great track record at this venue but his ball-striking is super elite again, and he has three top 10’s in his last four starts so he’s in the zone and that should remain intact again this week. I always prefer current form over course history and that premise should pay off for Conners come Sunday.
Avoid: Rickie Fowler (28 to 1) – Fowler hasn’t been his usual self lately as he’s been experimenting with clubs and who knows what else. The poor results speak for themselves as he hasn’t had a top 10 finish in almost 11 long months. He did have a runner-up finish here two years ago but his game was in much better shape then, and I don’t think placing a bet on Rickie this week makes much sense.
41 to 1 – 70 to 1
Patton Kizzire (70 to 1) – Kizzire has back-to-back top 11’s, he won this tournament three years ago, and he has also won the Sony Open which is a comparable track to this one in Mexico. He’s trending in the right direction and while I maybe wouldn’t place an outright bet on Kizzire this week, I would feel comfortable with a top 10 or 20 wager.
Sebastian Munoz (66 to 1) – Munoz was playing so solid before missing the cut in his most recent start at the RSM Classic. He was coming off a solid finish at the Masters, so he maybe just couldn’t get up for an average event post the biggest golf tournament the planet has to offer. Before the RSM Classic, he had 8 top 27’s in 9 events and three of them were top 9’s. His two finishes at this event aren’t impressive but he’s at a new level now and is bet worthy this week.
Avoid: Gary Woodland (70 to 1) – Woodland has an ailing body these days and it shows as his best finish in his last 8 events is a T33 – his next best is a T57. Let Gary heal before you even consider trying to make money off of him.
71 to 1 – 100 to 1
Chez Reavie (75 to 1) – Reavie only has one top 10 in his last 6 starts, but it was a T3. His worst finish at this tournament over the last four years is a T26, so he might be worth a top 30 bet if you can find a decent number.
Denny McCarthy (100 to 1) – McCarthy was the world’s best putter over the previous two seasons, and now his iron game has improved a ton since he got a new swing coach. He has two top 6’s over his last five starts and if he can put everything together, he does have the potential to win this season. His finishes here have been in the 40s the past two years but I think we will see him blow those away this week.
Avoid: Chris Kirk (90 to 1) – Kirk has been fighting to get not only his golf game back on track but his life as well since he has unfortunately struggled with alcoholism and depression for quite a while now. He did win on the Korn Ferry Tour back in June, but his PGA Tour results have been less than stellar with no top 40s in his last 8 starts between the PGA Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour.
101 to 1 and higher
Brian Gay (110 to 1) – Gay is coming off the win at the Bermuda Championship and has been solid at this event with three top 28’s over the last four years at Mayakoba, he was T14 last year, and his worst finish during this span is a T41 two years ago. Short, accurate hitters tend to do well on this track and Gay certainly fits the profile. I think a top 20 bet on Gay this week is a reasonable wager.
Doug Ghim (125 to 1) – Ghim is an up and coming golfer who has three straight top 23’s and also had a T14 five starts ago at the Safeway Open. We will see how he does in his first start in Mexico but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he records his first top 10 finish on the PGA Tour.
Avoid: Patrick Rodgers (175 to 1) – Rodgers was playing some decent golf later this past Summer but things have turned sour for him with four missed cuts in his last five starts and his best finish during that stretch was a T59. He might turn his game around at some point, but don’t expect it to come this week – Rodger that!
Be sure to do lots of research before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
