Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour is winding down from a huge high last week at The Masters Tournament, but only slightly, as the RBC Heritage is a well-attended event by many elite players, so we won’t see a weak field like we typically do after the other three majors. Habour Town Golf Links in South Carolina has been hosting the RBC Heritage since 1969 when Arnold Palmer won in the inaugural year, and this year the location remains the same. The field consists of 136 players, and the top 65 players plus ties will move on to play weekend golf for rounds 3 and 4.
There’s $7.1M to be won this week, the winner gets $1.278M, and also banks 500 FedEx Cup points. Habour Town Golf Links is a mere 7,099 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are Bermuda. The winning score at this tournament over the past ten years averages -13.2, and prior to Webb Simpson winning last year with a record-breaking score of -22 last year, the winning score between 2017 and 2019 was either -12 or -13, right on cue with the decade-long average. You will want to bet on golfers this week who are accurate drivers, can hit a long ball off-the-tee (but this isn’t entirely necessary), are strong putters – especially on Bermudagrass, make lots of birdies, and are sound tee-to-green.
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Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Webb Simpson (+1100) – Simpson is the betting favorite this week, and for good reason, as he won here last year, is coming off a T12 at The Masters, has four top 10’s in 11 starts this campaign, and several other top 20’s. I can see him repeating this week so bet him outright if you’re feeling confident about the all-time tournament record holder working his magic again, or you could certainly do a top 5 and/or a top 10 if you want to be more conservative. He has finished no worse than T16 here over the last four years and was T5 three years ago.
Collin Morikawa (+2100) – Morikawa won just three starts ago as it relates to stroke-play events, he has three top 10’s this season, and is coming off a fairly decent performance at The Masters where he finished T18. He’s the top approach player in the field, second in the field for tee-to-green results just slightly behind Zalatoris, and rates quite high in other stat categories including strokes gained: total. He got a good look at this course last year and I expect him to have a great finish this week based on that integral knowledge, ever-improving play, and his ability to close out events strong.
Avoid: Cameron Smith (+2300) – Smith is on a pretty good run at the moment with four straight top 17’s, but this course doesn’t play to his strengths and it shows as his best finish at this tournament was a T29 which came four years ago, and he’s missed the cut here the last two years. He could connect a top 30 this week, but I don’t like the payout based on the risk involved – there are simply better bets to make in this range.
+2600 to +5000
Corey Conners (+2600) – Conners has three top 8’s in his last four stroke-play events including a T8 last week at The Masters, and he just keeps gaining strokes like crazy outside of putting and around the green. He lost 3.42 strokes with his short game last week, but yet he still finished T8 – goes to show you how strong he is with his longer irons as he gained 9 strokes in the approach category. He had a T21 here a year ago, and I can certainly see him finishing top 20 and a top 10 is certainly more than possible as well – bet him accordingly.
Abraham Ancer (+3000) – If you count match-play, Ancer now has five straight top 26’s and he was 2nd here last year, so I like him as a bet for this week. Determining how aggressive to get with him might be the biggest challenge – I think you can certainly make a top 20 wager on him, or a top 10 isn’t a bad idea either. He keeps pushing for his first PGA Tour victory and it could come this week, but it’s a tad wild to bet him at +3000.
Avoid: Billy Horschel (+4500) – Horschel managed to win the WGC match-play event, but some luck was certainly involved there. In his last three stroke-play events he has missed the cut, has a T50 which came at The Masters last week, and he was T58 at The PLAYERS. He had a T5 here three years ago, but his other finishes over the last five years include two missed cuts, a T45, and a T54. I don’t see much betting value in Billy-Ho this week, and I doubt you do either.
+5100 to +10000
Ian Poulter (+5500) – Poulter hasn’t been great this season by any means, but he’s coming off a T26 at The Masters last week, and over the last four years here he has finished no worse than T14 with two top 10’s. I think I would feel quite confident in placing a top 20 bet on Ian this week, and he should be able to come through for you with that result. You could go as high as a top 10 should you desire to reap more reward and take on more risk.
Chris Kirk (+6000) – I really like the fight in Kirk this season as he has three top 8’s in his last eight starts, three other top 25’s during that time frame, and he’s coming off a T6 at the Texas Open thanks to a very strong weekend where he went 67-68 after opening with two 72’s. His track record at this tournament isn’t super strong, but he does have three top 30’s in his last six starts, and I would feel pretty good about myself in making a top 30 wager on him this week.
Avoid: Zach Johnson (+10000) – Johnson opened his season with 12 straight made cuts but has missed the cut in his last two by a wide margin, and his best finish here over the last eight years is a T16, so there’s not much doing with regards to betting interest in ZJ this week.
+11000 and higher
Rory Sabbatini (+14000) – Sabbatini has a game that just seems to work here as he has three straight top 23’s, and has four other top 17’s including two T9’s in six starts from 2010 to 2017. His play has been a bit spotty as of late, but he’s coming off a T30 at the Texas Open, so he has plenty of confidence heading into this week.
Michael Thompson (+12500) – Thompson looked pretty good at The Masters and secured a T34, he was T19 at the Honda Classic and top 50 at The PLAYERS. What I like the most though, is that he has back-to-back top 10’s at this tournament, and could lock up another this week for his third straight. You could bet him to finish top 10, or you could be more conservative and place a wager on him to have a top 20 result – your call.
Avoid: Hudson Swafford (+60000) – Swafford actually won this season, albeit way back in September at the Corales in a very weak field. His play since hasn’t been very inspiring at all as he has only made the cut once in his last seven starts. He hasn’t played here in three years and missed the cut, also missed the cut in 2016, and did finish T44 in 2015, but as you can see there’s just nothing attractive about his recent play or history that warrants a wager on him this week.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a lucrative week!
