Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour makes its way from Hartford, Connecticut, to Detroit, Michigan, for the 2021 installment of the Rocket Mortgage Classic – just the 3rd year this tournament has been played on the PGA Tour. Nate Lashley won the inaugural event in 2019 with a very low score of -25, some six strokes better than Doc Redman who finished a distant runner-up to Nate. This event has been played at the Detroit Golf Club (North) since its inception, and this year will be no different. We get a full 156-player field once again this week, and will see the top 65 players plus ties advance after round 2 on Friday to play the weekend rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend.
There’s $7.5M available to be won this week, the winner will receive $1.35M and also collect 500 FedEx Cup points. Detroit Golf Club (North) is 7,370 yards in length, is a par 72, and the greens are a mix of poa annua and bentgrass. The average winning score at this event over the last ten years is -24 – we really just have the tournament-record score of -25 from two years to go on, plus last year’s -23 by Bryson DeChambeau, so expect a similar score this week. Place your bets on golfers who gain lots of strokes total, are solid around the green, can putt well, are sound from tee to green, and can put birdies on the board with regularity.
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Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Bryson DeChambeau (+775) – DeChambeau is the defending champion at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, has won twice this season so far including at the U.S. Open last year, has six top 9’s, other solid finishes, and I believe is overdue for his next top 10 as it has been six starts since his last one came at the Wells Fargo Championship. The biggest concern I have about him this week is his around the green play, but you won’t find a better player off-the-tee, and he’s a superb putter, especially for a big hulk of a man. I’m not sure just yet if I would bet Bryson to win this week and defend his title, but would feel fine going with a top 5 or a top 10 wager on him.
Patrick Reed (+1200) – Reed has a win on the season, has six top 9’s, another eight top 30’s, and is consistent from week to week. Around the green play and putting are two key stats for this week, and Reed is one of the best in those two categories, so I feel confident in betting him this week. He had a T5 here two years ago, and a missed cut last year which does give me some cause for concern, but I’m still game to bet him to finish top 10 or top 20 at the very least.
Avoid: Jason Day (+2500) – Day has had some good finishes this season and one decent stretch from early February to late March, and he did finish T10 last week, but he has also missed the cut three times in his last five starts and his stats have been quite weak except for last week where he gained across the board. I don’t feel confident in him right now, he missed the cut here last year, and aside from last week’s top 10, he only has that one top 20 in his last eight tournaments played.
+2600 to +5000
Jason Kokrak (+3000) – Kokrak is having a career season with two wins, he has five top 9’s, and another five top 30’s. He is rolling the rock extremely well and has been since February, and while his other stats don’t look super impressive, he usually has a couple of aspects of his game on point on a weekly basis which helps him finish consistently well. He finished T29 here two years ago in his only look at this track, and his game is in much better shape now, so I like his chances to finish top 20 at the very least – you could bet him to finish top 10 but that would be too aggressive for my endorsement.
Garrick Higgo (+4500) – Higgo stormed onto the PGA Tour and won in just his second start at the Palmetto Championship under three weeks ago. Plus, he won twice on the European Tour in just three starts before making his way over to North America to join the PGA Tour, so he’s a proven winner with three wins in his last seven starts between both tours which is quite incredible! I think a top 20 or top 30 bet on Garrick this week is fine, you could go into top 10 territory but I have my reservations given he has missed the cut in back-to-back events post-win.
Avoid: Max Homa (+5000) – Homa pops off from time-to-time which I like, but I don’t like that he has missed the cut in four out of his last five starts and is bleeding strokes like crazy in his short game. He had a T42 finish here two years ago, and could do something similar again this week, but a result like that isn’t going to pay off an investment in him.
+5100 to +10000
Sepp Straka (+8000) – Straka is coming off a T10 last week at the Travelers Championship, but the thing that I like most about him is that he had a T8 here last year and a T11 two years ago. He had a good stretch from March to May with three top 29’s in six starts, and you might be looking at his three consecutive missed cuts prior to last week’s top 10, but he seemed to find something last week as he gained in all major stat categories except for losing just 0.34 strokes around the green. I’m fine to recommend betting him to finish top 20 or top 30 this week.
Alexander Noren (+10000) – Noren has five top 25’s in his last seven starts if you count the Zurich Classic, and he really gets it done with the short game which I don’t normally like too much on its own, but do this week based on key stat profiling. He did miss the cut in his most recent start at the Palmetto Championship, but he tends to bounce back well after he misses out on a paycheck. I think you can place a top 30 wager on him this week, but I wouldn’t do anything more than that on the Swede.
Avoid: Lanto Griffin (+6600) – Griffin used to be fairly reliable to deliver consistent results in the 20’s or 30’s, but hasn’t been delivering those lately with four missed cuts in his last seven starts, and he doesn’t have a top 20 since the Farmers Insurance Open in January. His stats have been spotty like a cheetah for a while now, and there’s just no way that I can get behind betting Lanto this week or anytime soon.
+11000 and higher
Hank Lebioda (+11000) – Lebioda has been playing very well since early May with three top 17’s in his last five starts, and is coming off a solid T5 last week where he gained strokes across the board. Don’t let his two missed cuts here scare you away from betting him as he is night and day better from just 12 months ago, and I think betting him to finish top 20 or top 30 is a sneaky good play.
Satoshi Kodaira (+13500) – With finishes in the T11 to T36 range over his last four starts and three of those being top 19’s, I’m liking what Kodaira is doing, and his ball-striking and putting have been solid, especially his putting where he has gained at least 4 strokes in his last four events. I feel good about a top 30 bet on him this week, or you could do a top 20 bet, but there’s obviously more risk there with more potential reward.
Avoid: Scott Piercy (+11000) – Piercy had been playing fairly well earlier this season but flash forward to mid-January and he has missed the cut six times in twelve starts, he has another finish range of T50 to T69 in four starts, and his best finish during this stretch was a T11. Putting has been his Achilles heel as he has lost strokes in that important category in ten of his last twelve events played, and it’s costing him lots of weekend play and money.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
