Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour heads northeast from La Jolla, California, to Hartford, Connecticut, for the 2021 edition of the Travelers Championship. This event has been played since 1952 when it was founded as the Insurance City Open, a gentleman by the name of Ted Kroll was the winner with a score of -11 – four strokes better than three other competitors in the field that year. We have known this tournament as the Travelers Championship since 2007, and the event has been played on the same course at TPC at River Highlands since 1984. There’s a full 156 player field this week, and as per usual, we will see the top 65 players plus ties move forward to play round 3 and round 4 on the weekend.
There’s $7.4M available to be won this week, the winner will receive $1.332M, and also collect 500 FedEx Cup points. TPC at River Highlands is just 6,841 yards in length, is a par 70, and the greens are bentgrass. The average winning score at this event over the last ten years is -16.1 – Dustin Johnson won last year with a score of -19, so I think we can expect the winner to finish in the range of -16 to -19 this year. The tournament record on this course is held by Kenny Perry who had a -22 in 2009 when he won by three strokes over David Toms and Paul Goydos. Place wagers on golfers this week who are solid off-the-tee, are excellent approach players, are accurate from the tee blocks, are sound from tee-to-green, and are good about gaining strokes around the green.
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Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Paul Casey (+1800) – Everything seems to line up for Casey to have a strong week as he has back-to-back top 8’s between the U.S. Open last week and the PGA Championship last month, he has three top 5’s at the Travelers Championship over the last four years, and his stats look very strong now too – if his short game is half decent this week then he should be well-positioned to have another top 5 finish. You could bet him to win outright, but I would likely go for a top 5 and/or a top 10.
Bryson DeChambeau (+1200) – Off-the-tee appears to be the most important key stat this week – if that’s the case then sign me up for DeChambeau who has three straight top 9’s at this event, he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the U.S. Open (the one last September, not last week) this season, and had he not lost an insane 8 strokes around the green last week, he could have easily had a top 5 or top 10 finish. I think the play for Bryson this week is to bet him to finish top 10, but you could do a top 5 wager depending on your risk tolerance.
Avoid: Brooks Koepka (+1800) – I mostly play Koepka at major championships as he tends to do average to poor at regular PGA Tour events – he has missed the cut in two of his last four events and they were both smaller tournaments, but in the U.S. Open last week he was T4 and had a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship last month. He did win the Phoenix Open earlier this year though, so it’s not like he always fails at average events, but I feel a lot more comfortable betting him in majors when he puts all of his chips on the table.
+2600 to +5000
Kevin Streelman (+3000) – I’m not really a Streelman guy, but I can’t ignore what he has been up to lately with four straight top 20’s including his T8 at the PGA Championship last month, and his record at this tournament is rather impressive as well as he finished runner-up here a year ago, T15 in 2019, T8 in 2017, he won in 2014, and had a T6 in 2011. His stats have been solid as well to back up his results, and I think a top 10 and/or a top 20 bet on him this week should play well come Sunday evening.
Keegan Bradley (+4500) – This is a home game of sorts for Bradley this week, and he has made the most of this event over the years with a co-runner-up two years ago, a T8 in 2017, and aside from his cut last year, he has finished no worse than T47 since 2012. Before missing the cut at the Memorial Tournament in his most recent start, he had eight straight top 30’s with three top 10’s in that mix. He has also gained strokes on the field in 20 straight tournaments with regards to ball-striking – that’s super impressive! A top 10 and/or top 20 bet on Bradley this week is perfectly fine with me, you could be more conservative with a top 30 nod, but that decision is up to you and your wallet.
Avoid: Cameron Smith (+5000) – Smith was a go-to player not too long ago when he was putting together a bunch of consistent top 10 and top 20 finishes, but he has dropped off over the last couple of months with back-to-back missed cuts and a T59 during that time also. He has missed the cut here the last two years as well – he did have thirty-something finishes five and six years ago, but those aren’t moving the needle for me. He could pop and get hot again soon, but I don’t see him and his mullet performing that well this week.
+5100 to +10000
Rickie Fowler (+6000) – Fowler’s star has been really fading over the last year or two, but he’s starting to show some signs of life again with a T11 at the Memorial Tournament and a T8 at the PGA Championship. News recently came out that he and his wife are expecting a baby this Fall, so this big upcoming life event could have been playing a factor as to why he’s been so off – I think there’s more to it than just that, but it could be part of it. Other than being a bit under average over his last two starts off-the-tee, he has gained strokes in all other major stat categories which is a nice turnaround for him compared to the rest of the season. He hasn’t played in this tournament in quite some time, but does have two T13’s over the last eleven years, so he does seem to play well here when he makes the trip. He could also be motivated to play well this week after not qualifying for the U.S. Open last week, his first miss there in quite some time. Go with a top 10 or a top 20 bet on Fowler this week depending on your risk/reward mindset.
Stewart Cink (+10000) – Cink has won this tournament twice in his career, his last victory coming in 2008, plus he had a co-runner-up finish three years ago, as well. He hasn’t played this event a ton over the last decade, but should have lots of good vibes at this venue. More recently, he has won twice this season, his last coming just five starts ago at the RBC Heritage, he had a T12 at The Masters, and has five top 37’s in his last seven starts. I think I would be comfortable betting him to finish top 30 this week, you could get into the top 20 range if you’re more bullish than me on him this week, but totally your call.
Avoid: Carlos Ortiz (+7500) – Ortiz was on a great stretch of play late last year when he won at the Houston Open, and had other high finishes including a T4 at the Phoenix Open, but things have soured for him since then with five missed cuts in his last twelve starts and his best finish during that stretch was a T15. I also don’t like that he has played this tournament four times and has missed the cut three times with his best finish being a T17 five years ago. Keep an eye on him going forward, but I’d advise to not place any bets on him this week.
+11000 and higher
Brendan Steele (+11000) – If you buy into horses for courses then you should look closely at Steele this week as these are his finishes since 2011 starting from last year: T6, T21, Cut, T14, T17, T25, T5, T13, Cut, and T13. I like that he has two top 4’s over his last seven starts, and had a T37 at the Memorial Tournament two starts ago in a strong field. I think a top 30 is a smart bet on him for this week, but you could certainly move up to a top 20 wager if you’d prefer.
Pat Perez (+13500) – Perez is coming off of his best start of the season at the Palmetto Championship where he finished T10, and he has another three other top 29’s in his last five starts if you count the Zurich Classic. I like that he gained over 6 strokes in approach two weeks ago and over 7 strokes tee-to-green at the same tournament – this could be a sign of more spectacular play ahead for Pat. I think a top 30 for him this week should be in the cards, but that wouldn’t be my favorite bet for the week, so you may want to err on the side of caution with him as he has only played this event once in his career and he missed the cut when he did in 2018.
Avoid: Chris Kirk (+11000) – Kirk was really rocking and rolling late last year and well into April of this year, but has gone a bit sideways since then with two missed cuts, a T69, and he did have a T26 at the Memorial Tournament earlier this month but I don’t like how he got it done there as he lost more than 2 strokes off-the-tee, was a flat zero in approach, and really relied on his short game where he gained more than 6 strokes. He might be ready to heat up again, but I would give it another event or two to see further evidence of that – plus, he hasn’t played in this tournament since 2013 when he finished T58 and he missed the cut in 2011.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
