Golf Betting Tips
The past two weeks saw smaller fields and no cut lines, but we are back to more regular golf this week with the Butterfield Bermuda Championship on the schedule. This will be just the third time we have seen the Bermuda Championship, and both installments have been played on this same track in Southampton Parish, Bermuda. We have 132 golfers teeing it up this week, and the cut line comes after round 2 on Friday when the top 65 players plus ties advance to the weekend rounds.
There’s “only” $6.5M available to be won this week, the winner will take home $1.17M and also rack up 500 FedEx Cup points. The Port Royal Golf Course is just 6,842 yards, is a par 71, and the greens are Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the past two years is -19.5, so expect a winning number around this figure or a bit higher or lower depending on the wind and weather conditions throughout the four days of play. The tournament record came in the first installment of this event when Brendon Todd shot a -24 to beat Harry Higgs by four strokes – it’s possible we see that eclipsed this week since it is an easy vacation destination course. Place bets on golfers this week who are accurate off the tee, can putt well, can get up and down around the greens, can hit a long ball, and have a good approach game.
Increase your odds for winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the Butterfield Bermuda Championship this week:
1. Will another scrub win? We have only seen Brian Gay and Brendon Todd win this tournament – no offense to them, but neither are incredible players even though they have both won multiple times on the PGA Tour. Gay missed five cuts and 9 of 10 before winning here last year, and Todd had missed four of five cuts before winning in 2019. Maybe you should bet hard on the players who have been playing badly leading up to this week – lots of options on that front.
2. Will Patrick Reed get it together? Reed is the biggest name and most accomplished player on the slate this week, but he hasn’t been playing too well since his 5th at the Memorial Tournament in June. This year will mark his first at this event, so maybe he’s trying to jump on a low-quality tournament and have a high finish to get his confidence back in order. If you are going off of his stats then stay away from betting Reed this week, but if you’re looking at the inferior field and a narrative for him, then this could be a good week to lay down some dollars on him.
3. Bet hard on a long shot? Brian Gay won last year and his odds were around 175-1 prior to the tournament starting, and Brendon Todd’s odds were around 80-1 in 2019 before he was victorious. It likely won’t pay off to bet on a long shot around or beyond 100-1, but you’ll look oh so smart if you bet an outright and win on a player whose odds are way up there. This event is fairly wide open I would say, so placing $1 bets on a few players who are highly unlikely to win could surprisingly be a good strategy this week.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1000) – He’s in a bit of a cold snap on the PGA Tour, but he has been playing some solid golf on the European Tour with a T20 two starts ago at the BMW PGA Championship and he’s coming off the win two weeks ago at the Andalucia Masters. He’s an accurate hitter who can putt well, and even though he hasn’t played on this track before, his game seems like a natural fit here and he should perform well. If you want to bet that he will win for the first time on the PGA Tour then go for it, however, a top 5 or a top 10 wager is likely the more sensible play.
Mito Pereira (+1600) – He’s a proven winner on the Korn Ferry Tour including three wins this year in 2021 including going back-to-back in June at the REX Hospital Open and the BMW Charity Pro-Am, and now we are just waiting for Pereira to breakthrough on the PGA Tour – it could come this week. He’s an extremely solid ball-striker as he has gained strokes in nine out of his last ten tournaments that offered shot track technology including gaining at least 5.27 strokes in approach over his last three tournaments played, and it appears that the only aspect of his game that’s holding him back from being victorious is a cold putter as he has lost a combined 8.56 strokes on the greens over his last two starts. I think you can bet him to win, to finish top 5, top 10, or a combination of two or three of those.
Avoid: Patrick Reed (+2000) – Some gamblers are back on Reed this week, but I’m not – I’m waiting until I see some life out of him as he has been ice cold in the ball-striking category over his last five tournaments losing strokes in the range of 3.31 to 7.32 – ouch! Aside from gaining a mere 0.55 strokes on the greens in his most recent start at THE CJ Cup, he lost strokes across the board. He can be accurate off the tee and a good putter, so he could score well this week, but I’m taking the wait-and-see approach with Patrick.
+2600 to +5000
Denny McCarthy (+5000) – McCarthy’s season hasn’t gotten off to a superb start as he has missed two cuts in three starts, but he did finish T17 at the Sanderson Farms Championship two starts ago thanks to a hot putter, and I think we will see it come alive again this week. He has had a lot of success in Bermuda over the first two years of this tournament with a T15 two years ago and he scored a T4 a year ago gaining 11.39 strokes total. I think we are starting to see a trend at this event where the players who do well will continue to do well no matter what their form is coming in. I think betting Denny to finish top 10 or top 20 this week is quite reasonable – especially the latter option.
Russell Knox (+4000) – Knox sort of fits the same profile as McCarthy above in that his recent form is far from spectacular but he has done quite well on this track with a T16 last year and a T11 in 2019. He missed two cuts before his T16 last year and he had missed two of four cuts prior to his T11 two years ago, so don’t let his recent play scare you off. It’s not so bad for Russell as of late since he has two top 29’s in his last five starts and he’s 2 for 3 so far this season. The wind is expected to play a factor this week, so having a Scottish player on your side who can deal well with the wind is also a positive since the course is right on the ocean and gusts can pick up quickly.
Avoid: Guido Migliozzi (+4000) – He showed lots of early promise on the PGA Tour after finishing T4 at the U.S. Open back in late June, but things haven’t gone so well for him lately as he has missed three cut lines in his last four starts. I believe that we will see the talented young man find his groove again, but you’re better to be a bit late than way early on the Italian.
+5100 to +10000
Mark Hubbard (+6000) – He has been a model of consistency since mid-May as he has only missed a single cut in his last thirteen starts and has made seven straight cuts on the PGA Tour. He has three top 20’s in his last six starts including a T16 at the Fortinet Championship two starts ago, and his approach play has carried him along with a solid short game. I think the obvious bet on Hubbard this week is a top 20, or you could move down into top 30 territory if you can find a sportsbook that offers the wager.
Ryan Armour (+5500) – His best finish is a T51 so far this season and he has also missed two cuts, but he had two top 6’s in mid to late-July, and he has back-to-back T8’s at this tournament even when coming in cold, so don’t let his recent play affect your betting decision on him this week. He has been just fine off the tee since mid-June, and if he can have a decent short game this week then he could be in the mix for another top 10 in Bermuda. I think you can bet him to finish top 10, top 20, or top 30 depending on how much risk and reward you’re up for.
Avoid: Lucas Herbert (+6000) – He was humming along quite well in the Summer with a win at the Irish Open, two top 5’s between the European Tour and Korn Ferry Tour, and he even had two top 20’s at the Memorial Tournament and the Travelers Championship, but the wheels have fallen off the wagon over his last five starts with four missed cuts and a T36 in a small World Golf Championship (WGC) field in early August. The Aussie will heat up again, but it could be a cold winter for him here in North America.
+11000 and higher
Michael Gligic (+13000) – Gligic has played fairly well in Bermuda since the tournament has been played with a T53 two years ago and he locked up a T11 here last year gaining 9.39 strokes total. He has played five weekends in his last six starts, and did have a 19th at the Barbasol Championship in mid-July, so he offers some upside for this week. I think you can bet him to finish top 20, but I would shop around for a decent-looking top 30 number on him, if possible.
Vaughn Taylor (+13000) – I couldn’t really find another decent looking wager in this range, but you could look at Taylor who can pop at times as he had a T18 at the Memorial Tournament in June, a T6 at the Valspar Championship in May, and he has three top 58’s in his last five tournaments including a T34 at the John Deere Classic. He also had a T40 here a year ago, so he knows the track and can navigate it better than the average player. I think if you can find a top 30 or even a top 40 wager out there for Vaughn this week, it’s worth exploring, but don’t plop down too much green on him.
Avoid: Ben Kohles (+13000) – He had a decent Korn Ferry Tour experience last season, but he hasn’t found anything on the PGA Tour just yet as he has missed five straight cut lines and has only made one in his past eight starts which came at Pebble Beach where he finished T56. He has lots of work to do on his golf game before he can make a decent living out on the PGA Tour, and you should be very patient while he tries to figure out the top golf tour in the world.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
