Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour took a breather last week for the Olympics but it’s back this week for the final World Golf Championship (WGC) of the 2020-2021 campaign. The WGC-FedEx St.Jude will only see the third edition being played this week, but the FedEx St.Jude Classic was played previously and on the same course as this week’s WGC since 1995. We are in Southwind, Tennessee, this week for a small and exclusive field of 66 players, and of course, there is no cut line to speak of.
There’s $10.5M available to be won this week, the winner receives $1.82M and also gets 550 FedEx Cup points. This WGC tournament will be played at TPC Southwind for the third straight year, it’s a 7,244-yard track, is a par 70, and the greens are Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this event and at the FedEx St.Jude Classic over the past ten years is -12.8, and the best tournament score between the two events on this course was -26 in 1996 by John Cook. Place wagers on golfers this week who are solid around the green, are great putters on Bermudagrass, make lots of birdies, gain well in the strokes total category, and are excellent from tee-to-green.
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Questions I have regarding the WGC-FedEx St.Jude Invitational as it relates to betting on players this week:
1. To bet on Olympic golfers or not? There could be fatigue and rust from the golfers who played in Japan last week – pay attention to interviews and any content you can find as the week progresses to see who’s feeling fine and who’s maybe feeling all of the time zones.
2. I’m struggling with the betting odds, are you too? Usually, there’s a clear-cut betting favorite and there might have been if Jon Rahm was available to play, but there are three golfers at +1200 on DK Sportsbook in Morikawa, Koepka, and Spieth – they don’t know who the favorite is and I’m not so sure either. There are other examples of this as well further down at +2000, +2800, +4500, and beyond, so it’s sort of a mixed bag due to the Olympics being last week I think.
3. Will betters value past performance at the FedEx St.Jude Classic? If we are looking at course history then sign me up for Daniel Berger as he won on this course in 2016 and 2017 and finished T2 here last year in the WGC format. I think a lot of betters will look at the event results just as much as the course results, but I think looking at both collections is the way too go – lots to digest this week if you want to do it right.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2000 and lower
Collin Morikawa (+1200) – He’s trending towards becoming the top-ranked golfer in the world after winning The Open Championship, the last WGC event, and he has six top 8’s in his last seven stroke-play events and has finished no worse than T14 during that torrid stretch. He regularly has double-digit strokes gained with his ball-striking – it’s no wonder he can finish top 10 even when losing two or three strokes with his putter. He’s a threat to win every time he plays now and he can make you money every time he tees it up if you play your cards right. I think you can bet him to win, finish top 5 AND finish top 10 this week – unless the Japan trip brings him down, he should win at least two of those three bets.
Brooks Koepka (+1200) – This tournament has been played twice on this course over the last two years – Koepka won it two years ago and was a runner-up last year. Then look at his finishes over the past three most recent majors – a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship in May, a T4 at the U.S. Open in June, and a T6 at The Open Championship last month, plus he had a T5 at the Travelers Championship two starts ago. He’s a total beast in big events and I feel you can bet him the exact same way I suggested to bet Morikawa above.
Avoid: Dustin Johnson (+1800) – I just don’t know what to make of Johnson right now, he missed the cut in his last event played at the 3M Open two weeks ago in a very weak field, but he does have two top 10’s in his last five starts. His stats look pretty good but not really DJ good – he has a T12 and a T20 at this tournament over the past two years but did win on the course twice when it was the FedEx St.June Classic, albeit in a much weaker field. He’s certainly a threat to finish top 10 this week, but a lot of players are and I like DJ the least in this betting range.
+2100 to +5000
Scottie Scheffler (+2800) – It’s just a matter of time before this talented, young Texan gets his time in the sun with a PGA Tour win. He has three top 8’s in his last four starts, four top 8’s in his last six starts, and eight top 8’s on the season if you count the Zurich Classic. His ball-striking and putting have been quite good recently, and that should continue again this week. I think the smart bet is a top 10 for Scheffler this week, but you could venture into top 5 territory if you want more risk and potential reward.
Patrick Cantlay (+2800) – Cantlay won four starts ago at the Memorial Tournament in early June, he also won at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP back in late October of last year, and has five top 8’s on the campaign. His putter is starting to gain with regularity again after losing in seven straight tournaments, and he’s playing a solid all-around game – other than at The Open Championship where he missed the cut, but there’s no shot link data to see what went wrong there. He finished T12 here two years ago, but I think he should get into the top 10 this week if he flashes his strong approach game which he often does – bet him accordingly, or take the top 20 if you want to be more conservative.
Avoid: Bryson DeChambeau (+2800) – DeChambeau won the U.S. Open last Fall and the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March, but he only has one top 10 in his last eight starts. He also has a T30 and a T48 here over the last two years, so I think it makes a lot of sense to wait out Bryson for now and let him find his game before you lay down money on him again.
+5100 to +10000
Tyrrell Hatton (+5500) – His odds to win keep getting longer and longer and maybe with good reason as he has missed two straight cut lines, but he will play all four rounds this week guaranteed, and I like that he finished runner-up three starts ago at the Palmetto Championship when he gained almost 12 strokes with his ball-striking. He comes with risk, of course, but he can pop and win tournaments, so at his odds, I like the possibility for him to finish top 20 at +150.
Jason Kokrak (+6000) – This gentleman has won two times this season and the last one came just four starts ago at the Charles Schwab Challenge when he killed it with his ball-striking and putting. I wouldn’t bet him to finish too high, but much like Hatton above, I like him to put up a top 20 this week.
Avoid: Will Zalatoris (+5500) – Zalatoris has been a bit banged up lately and it shows as he has missed two cuts in his last three starts, and keeps losing strokes with the flat stick which is normally a recipe for disaster on the PGA Tour. I think that Will-Z will get his mojo going again and it could come this week if his body is feeling better, but I’m fine to wait on the sidelines for now.
+11000 and higher
Stewart Cink (+13000) – Cink has quietly won twice this season and also has a T4, as well. His approach game is very strong as he has gained at least 4 strokes in the category seven times this season which is impressive, especially for a man of his age. He has missed the cut in his past two events, but he will play all 72 holes this week and looks like a pretty good value bet to finish top 20.
Cameron Davis (+13000) – The long-ball Aussie won three starts ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and has ten top 33’s on the campaign including a T3 at The American Express and a T6 at the Sanderson Farms Championship. I think putting a gentle bet on him to finish top 20 this week is in play, or you can avoid him altogether if you fear him against an elite field – something that he’s not quite used to just yet.
Avoid: Si Woo Kim (+13000) – Nothing much doing for Kim recently as he has four missed cuts in his last eight starts including two in his last four, he is coming off a meager T32 at the Olympics, and has lost his way on the greens. He did win back in January but we are waiting to see what comes next as he only has two top 10’s since with lots of terrible finishes throughout.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
