Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour shifts from Bermuda to Mexico for this week’s World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba – an event that has been played on the PGA Tour since 2007 and always on the same course in Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo. We again have 132 players in action this week, well technically only 126 played last week due to so many pull outs no thanks to the nasty weather that was on tap in Bermuda, and there is a cut line after round 2 on Friday where the top 65 players plus ties will play the weekend rounds.
There’s $7.2 available to be won by the players this week, the winner will get a nice injection of $1.296M into his bank account, and also receive 500 FedEx Cup points. El Camaleon Golf Club is 7,017 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are paspalum. The average winning score at this tournament over the past decade is -18.8, and you can expect the winning score to be around that number as it has landed around -20 over the past five years. The tournament record came in 2018 when Matt Kuchar went off for a -22 which was a single stroke better than Danny Lee – it’s possible we will see a new record set this week. Place bets on golfers this week who are accurate from the tee blocks, have a good off the tee game, can get hot with the flat stick on the greens, are good on approach, and who are solid from tee to green.
Increase your odds for winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions I have regarding the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba this week:
1. Get aggressive with a few outright bets? You would think that the win will come from the top or near it with Viktor Hovland, Justin Thomas, Abraham Ancer, and other talented players in the field. I think any or all of these three could be wagered on to win, along with players who have been hot as of late. I don’t typically bet on more than one or two players to win on any given week, but I might have 3-6 outright bets on my card this week.
2. Bet on old or young players? Aside from last year’s winner who is quite young still, we have seen lots of older winners here including Matt Kuchar, Brendon Todd, Pat Perez, Graeme McDowell, Charley Hoffman, and others – this is because driving distance doesn’t really factor in too heavily on this shorter track. Pay close attention to accurate hitters this week as there’s a huge premium on keeping it on the fairways.
3. Windburn from last week? Players had a difficult task navigating the strong winds that were on tap in Bermuda last week, and it makes me wonder if that wind will hurt or help their games this week with much less wind to contend with. I think the players who played well last week in the wind will benefit from that and keep the momentum going this week in a less breezy setting, but time will tell.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Abraham Ancer (+1600) – You could tell that Ancer wanted to win his first PGA Tour tournament in his home country of Mexico as he has four top 21’s here since 2017 including a T8, a T9, and a T12. He did win a WGC event in August, and as a result, he should be more confident than ever before on this track and should be all over the leaderboard from Thursday through Sunday. His two major strengths are his approach game and his putting, and those are key ingredients for success on the PGA Tour on any course. He has seven top 9’s in his last fourteen starts, and three of those have come in his last six tournaments played including T9’s at both the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship. I think you can bet him to win, to finish top 5, or top 10, and it’s not crazy to wager him in all three outcomes, either.
Viktor Hovland (+1600) – Hovland is the defending champ at this event and this will be the first title defense of his career, so it will be interesting to see how he fares this week. His ball-striking numbers are incredible, and the only thing holding him back from becoming a superstar on the PGA Tour is a weak short game, but that will hopefully tighten up as he gains experience. He has seven top 18’s in his last twelve starts including a pair of T3’s and a T5 at the Tour Championship, and he’s poised to add another one this week. You can bet him the same way that I recommended Ancer above, but going back to back is quite challenging, so while he likely won’t win again this year, he should be right in the mix for a top 10.
Avoid: Brooks Koepka (+2500) – If it’s not a major event then I don’t really have a ton of interest in Koepka, and that mindset will remain firmly in place this week. He has only finished from T22 to T67 over his last five starts, his approach game has fallen apart as he’s lost strokes in this key stat category in four out of his last five starts, and his putting is in exactly the same boat. I don’t think I’ll be taking a serious look at Brooks until next year’s Masters Tournament, I would advise you to do the same, or at least wait until his stats are net positive again.
+2600 to +5000
Aaron Wise (+3000) – We aren’t used to seeing Wise in this range, but he has earned this designation for this week as he has two straight top 8’s including a T5 at THE CJ CUP in his most recent start, and no worse than a T26 over his past five tournaments played. He’s a very strong ball-striker and has gained strokes with his short game in six straight starts, as well. He has two top 10’s in the last three years here including his runner-up a year ago when he gained 14.05 strokes total. I think a top 10 wager on Aaron this week makes a lot of sense – you could venture into top 5 territory or even an outright bet if you think he can move up one position from 2020 to win.
Talor Gooch (+3500) – He’s one of the best approach players in this field gaining at least 5.26 strokes over his past two starts, he has gained at least 2.90 strokes with his short game over his past three starts, and he has been guns a blazin’ so far this season with three straight top 11’s including a T4 at the Fortinet Championship and a T5 at THE CJ CUP in his most recent start. I think you can bet him to finish top 5 or top 10 this week, or you could do a top 20 wager if you want to play things more conservatively.
Avoid: Shane Lowry (+3000) – Lowry is another player that boasts an excellent approach game, but it’s his off the tee game that concerns me as he has lost strokes in this category in six straight events that offered shot tracking technology and a lot of that has to do with his inaccuracy from the tee blocks – not a good indicator since this week driving accuracy is so crucial. He also doesn’t have any experience on this course and the paspalum greens could give him some difficulties. He doesn’t have a top 10 finish since June, and I’m just not that eager to bet on Lowry this week – I’ll wait until I see a better course fit for him where he has a good playing history.
+5100 to +10000
Emiliano Grillo (+6500) – If you like horses for courses then you will love what Grillo brings to the table this week as he has a T8, a T9, a T10, and a T15 here over the last five years, and his worst finish was a T41. He’s accurate off the tee, is a solid ball-striker, and the only drawback for him is a weak short game, but he should do just fine in that stat category this week on a course that really fits him well. I think the play on Grillo this week is a top 10 or a top 20 depending on how much risk and reward you’re willing to take on.
Russell Knox (+10000) – Knox is another horse on this course as he has three top 9’s since 2015 including a co-runner-up finish and a T3, and he has finished no worse than T37 in eight starts since 2011. He has three top 29’s in his last six starts including a T12 last week in Bermuda, and it seems as though the stars align perfectly for the Scottish gentleman this week. You can bet him to finish top 10, top 20, top 30, or top 40, or bet him in all four situations and you should come out on top in at least two or three of them.
Avoid: Charley Hoffman (+6000) – Hoffman actually won here in 2014, but since then he has been atrocious with five missed cuts in his last six years. He doesn’t have a top 20 finish since May, and I think that will continue this week as he isn’t accurate off the tee, and the rest of his stats are merely average or worse since June. Wait him out until he finds his solid ball-striking form again, and don’t hold your breath in the meantime.
+11000 and higher
Adam Long (+13000) – He has only played in this tournament twice so far in his career, but he will be playing here every year going forward if he continues his torrid play at El Camaleon as he had a T3 here a year ago and was a co-runner-up in 2019. He’s very hit or miss these days as he either seems to finish top 30 or miss the cut, but he does have two top 30’s in his past three starts including a T25 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. You can bet him to finish top 5, top 10, or beyond, or avoid him completely if you think his luck has run out in Mexico.
Lucas Herbert (+13000) – I don’t normally like to chase players who are coming off a win, but Herbert won for the first time on the PGA Tour last week, and should be beaming with confidence and energy this week. The last time he won on the European Tour in June at the Irish Open, he followed that up a week later at the Scottish Open with a T4 in a much tougher field, so I’m hoping he will do something similar again this week. You can bet him any which way you want this week, or stay off him if you’re worried about him potentially partying like a rock star after last week’s win and not being focused on golf this week.
Avoid: Brian Stuard (+13000) – I’m not sure why his odds are the same as others including the two above, because he has missed five straight cut lines and keeps bleeding strokes on approach and with his putter. He does have two top 23’s here in the last four years, but he has also missed the cut twice as well, and I think we will see him miss for the third time in five years come Friday at the conclusion of his round 2.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
