March Madness Bracket Tips
It’s the greatest time of the year! So get your spot on the couch ready, the 2019 March Madness is finally here!
This is by far my favorite sporting event. Games are being played all day Thursday through Sunday, buzzer beaters, and of course, the upsets. Over the last couple of years, I have done a ton of research to help “predict” NCAA Tournament outcomes. This research is based on spotting random trends and information to help determine who I think can win it all, giving me an edge when looking at March Madness odds.
In the first part of this article, I will take you through some interesting random March Madness facts to help you decide how you can fill out your bracket and hopefully win your pool. In the second part of this article, I will apply most this information to this year’s field of 64 teams (68 if you include the play-in games) to help you decide who your champion should be. Alexa, play “One Shining Moment.” Let’s dive in.
20 March Madness Facts:
Fact: 14 of the last 15 champions had the color blue as a school color
Obviously, there are more teams with blue in their school colors than any other color. The only team in the last 15 years to win without blue in their color was Louisville in 2013 but their NCAA Title has been vacated due to their recruiting scandal. So really 14/14 have had blue. Of course, take this with a grain of salt when choosing your champion.
Fact: Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, A #9 seed or worse has never won the NCAA Tournament.
Sorry to all you “Cinderella Story” lovers, it’s not gonna happen. Yes, there have been some serious underdogs who have almost won the entire tournament but it has never happened before. I know you want to pick your favorite team to pull off the impossible but if you are serious about trying to win your March Madness pool, you have to stay away from those lower-seeded teams to win it all.
Fact: The last 15 champions have had at least 25 wins before the start of the NCAA Tournament.
This includes the conference tournaments that the teams play in the week before. If a team you are high on has less than 25 wins, sorry, you should drop them out of the running for the title.
Fact: Since 1985, #1 seeds have gone to the Sweet Sixteen approximately 93% of the time (252-20 in 1st 2 rounds).
Basically, unless something crazy happens, #1 seeds move on to the Sweet Sixteen. Stick with them unless you are in love with an 8 or 9 seed or if the 1 seed seems weak.
Fact: 17 of the last 22 years, at least 2 double-digit seeds reached the Sweet Sixteen. 32 of the last 34 years at least 1 double-digit seed has reached the Sweet Sixteen (1995,2007).
For all you Cinderella lovers. Pick your favorite long shots to go to the Sweet Sixteen! There will be upsets and we are all here for them!
Fact: Pick a “First Four” winner to win at least 1 game. Since it began, every year 1 First Four winner has moved on.
For those of you who may not know, The NCAA Tournament added 4 teams to the field of 64 in 2011 to make it a 68 team field. These teams are 4 automatic qualifiers and 4 at-large teams. The 4 auto bids are the 4 worst ranked conference champions in the tournament. They play to get in as a #16 seed to face two of the #1 seeds. The at-large teams are teams who barely made it in by the skin of their teeth and traditionally are playing to get into the tournament as an #11 or #12 seed. These are the ones you want to decide to move on. This year, it’s Temple vs Belmont and St. Johns vs Arizona State. Don’t worry about the #16 seeds because last year was the first time ever that a #16 seed beat a #1 seed. This will not be reoccurring. Watch these games on Tuesday and Wednesday and then look to see who the winners will be playing. Choose which match up you like better and move a First Four winner on to the next round.
Fact: 37 of the last 39 Champions had at least 1 McDonald’s High School All-American.
Great players win tournaments. It’s as simple as that. Duke, Oregon, Kansas, Kentucky, LSU, Maryland, UNC, Nevada, Kansas, Mississippi State, Villanova, Florida State, Michigan State*, Virginia, and Louisville have these players on their rosters. Michigan State’s player is injured.
Fact: 15 of the last 18 years, a #12 seed has won at least 1 game.
The 12 vs 5 upset is one of the most popular upsets in this tournament. Last year, was one of those rare years. I don’t think that happens again this year.
Fact: 8 of the last 11 years, a #13 seed has won at least 1 game.
All the upset lovers rejoice! Upsets happen so don’t be afraid to pick some. First-round games are traditionally worth the least amount of points in bracket pools.
Fact: 4 of the last 6 years, a #14 seed has won at least 1 game.
Read the section above. Exact same concept. Don’t feel forced to pick upsets but don’t avoid them because there will be plenty of them.
Fact: Only around 10% of the time and 2 times in the past 9 years, the top 4 seeds from each region, made the Sweet Sixteen.
So basically, you shouldn’t go with “chalk.” Chalk is picking all the best teams to beat the lower seed. A #5 seed is usually evenly matched with a #4 seed so those are toss-up games. Try and be a little different and think of teams who you think may separate you from the rest of the teams in your pool. Last year, I went out on a limb and chose Loyola-Chicago and Nevada to play each other in the Sweet Sixteen. Unfortunately, I had Nevada winning that game but in the end, It helped me separate myself from everyone else in my bracket. Eliminate a #2 seed during the 1st weekend. This has happened 9 years in a row and in some instances multiple times in the same year. Last time that it didn’t happen was 2009. This year’s #2 seeds are all top tier teams but if you aren’t convinced that one of them is great, why not have at least one
Fact: 7 of the last 9 years, a #1 seed has been eliminated during the first weekend.
Same thing different seed. Find a team that you find weak or have a tough matchup in that second round of games and go with it. If you don’t feel comfortable doing that, don’t force it. Remember, #1 seeds are 252-20 in the 1st 2 rounds of the NCAA Tournament. This year’s #1 seeds are all amazing but they call it March Madness for a reason.
Fact: 35 of the last 40 champions have been a top 3 seed.
This is why I say don’t ride the Cinderella’s to the end. The top seeds in the tournament usually win the whole thing.
Fact: 10 of the last 14 champions have been a #1 seed.
2006 Florida (#3), 2011 & 2014 Uconn (#3, #7), and 2016 Villanova (#2) are the only ones in the last 14 years to win while not being a #1 seed.
Fact: Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, at least one #1 seed has made the Final Four every year except in 2006 and 2011.
Again, #1 seeds rule the tournament. BUT…
Fact: All four #1 seeds have made the Final Four only 1 time (2008)
Now I’m really confusing you aren’t I. You should choose just enough #1 seeds but not all of them.
Fact: Since 1985, 41% of Final Four teams have been the #1 seed
When it comes to #1 seeds, you should choose 1-2 #1 seeds to be in the Final Four.
Fact: Since 1987, only 6 teams have shot less than 35% on three-pointers and won the title
Great shooting teams seem to win. Villanova last year was lights out from deep and they destroyed every team they played behind
Fact: Only 2 times since the 2000 season has a team won the National Championship who didn’t either win their regular-season Conference Championship or their post-season Conference Tournament
I put a ton of value on this stat. When going through my potential champions, this is one of the first things I look at. Can the team perform in games that have a lot of meaning or do they fold when it counts?
Fact: 17 of the last 19 champions have had a coach with Final Four experience.
Experienced coaches matter!
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Picking This Year’s Champion Based on our 20 Facts
Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, A 9 seed or worse has never won the NCAA Tournament. Although it is possible, it’s never happened before. Eliminate half of the field of 64/68 teams.
Sorry, UCF, Baylor, Oklahoma, Washington, Minnesota, Florida, Seton Hall, Iowa, Belmont/Temple, Arizona State/St. John’s, Saint Mary’s, Murray State, Liberty, Oregon, New Mexico State, Vermont, Saint Louis, UC Irvine, Northeastern, Yale, Old Dominion, Northern Kentucky, Georgia State, Bradley, Montana, Abilene Christian, Colgate, Fairleigh Dickinson/Prairie View A&M, North Carolina Central/North Dakota State, Iona, Gardner-Webb.
Winners win.
Sorry, Marquette, Virginia Tech, Purdue, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Wisconsin, Maryland, Louisville, Syracuse, Ole Miss.
35 of the last 40 champions have been a top 3 seed.
Sorry, Florida State, Kansas, Kansas State, Auburn, Buffalo, Villanova, Nevada, Wofford, Cincinnati, Utah State, VCU.
Only 2 times since the 2000 season has a team won the National Championship who didn’t either win their regular-season Conference Championship or their post-season Conference Tournament.
Sorry, Tennessee, Michigan, Kentucky.
17 of the last 19 champions have had a coach with Final Four experience.
Sorry, Virginia, LSU, Virginia, Texas Tech.
We are now left with 5 teams, Gonzaga, Duke, North Carolina, Michigan State, and Houston.
37 of the last 39 Champions had at least 1 McDonald’s High School All-American.
Duke, Oregon, Kansas, Kentucky, LSU, Maryland, UNC, Nevada, Kansas, Mississippi State, Villanova, Florida State, Michigan State*, Virginia, and Louisville all have these players.
*Michigan State will be without their McDonald’s All-American due to injury earlier in the year.
Sorry, Houston, Gonzaga, Michigan State.
Since 1987, only 6 teams have shot less than 35% on three-pointers and won the title.
Sorry, Duke.
This leaves you with a champion of North Carolina.
Now obviously this doesn’t mean that you should only choose North Carolina or that you shouldn’t choose Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga, etc. This is just trying to narrow down the list of 64 to as little as possible to make the process simpler. You can pick and choose which stats you like and dislike to find your own perfect champion.
Best of luck this year! I’m ready for a wild March Madness Tournament!
