Welcome to the first edition of the Bullpen Report here at FantasyData. I’ve been looking for ways to try to give you an edge in your MLB DFS contests by examining trends and patterns that have emerged so far this season. Today I’d like to take a look at how we can leverage bullpen data in DFS contests to give you an edge over the competition.
When researching an MLB DFS slate, my process usually starts by looking at the starting pitcher matchups for each of the games on the slate. We base so much of our decision-making on which pitcher is starting for each team. Every day I analyze that pitcher’s strengths and weaknesses. Which pitches have had higher swinging strike rates than others and how they match up against the opposing hitters’ strengths. Which handedness of batters hit better off them than the other and how many extra-base hits or home runs are they giving up?
Other teams that average less than 5 innings per start this season are the Angels, Rangers, Orioles, and Blue Jays. The Angels and Rangers have both experimented with openers, too, while Baltimore staff has been among the worst in the majors and their pitchers routinely make early exits. So why is average innings per start an interesting stat to consider and what does it have to with bullpens? Well, what I want to know is the likelihood that we see bullpen arms for an extended period, and simply stated if a team’s starters aren’t pitching deep into games then we are more likely to see the worst bullpen arms they have to offer (long relievers and middle-innings guys instead of set-up men and closers). These are the pitchers who we want to target and are often the guys who are left out there to eat innings if the starter gets knocked out of the game early, even if they are also giving up runs.
The Worst Bullpens
Baltimore Orioles
The lack of starting pitching has forced this bullpen into having to pitch the fourth most innings in MLB. They have the second highest ERA in MLB and an xFIP up around 5. They have allowed 50 home runs this season, which is 9 more than the next closest team. They strike out less than a batter per inning while walking over 4 batters per 9 innings.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals pen has been horrible, even while their starting rotation has been pretty good. They’re lucky they have workhorses like Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg, and Max Scherzer that can go deep into games because the pen has the worst ERA in the majors and has surrendered the fourth highest HR/9 at 1.59. Their xFIP of 5.09 is also a league worse and there’s not even hope for regression, they are just plain bad.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers pen has been bad on pretty much every level. They have the fifth highest ERA, second-most home runs allowed, lowest strikeout rate, and a bottom 10 walk rate. They are one of only 4 teams that has a negative WAR, meaning they are literally costing their team wins on a nightly basis.
New York Mets
The Mets bullpen has blown a league-leading 13 saves, so it’s not as if their middle relievers are all to blame for their 5.00 ERA and 4.97 xFIP. They also have the fifth highest walk rate and fourth lowest groundball rate, which means more baserunners and more balls put in play that can turn into home runs.
Other Bad Bullpens: Rangers, Marlins, Mariners, Pirates
The Best Bullpens
Yankees, Astros, Reds, Rays, Indians
You have to take the Rays situation with a grain of salt since their bullpen numbers reflect the contributions of unconventional starters such as Yonny Chirinos, Jalen Beeks, and Ryan Yarbrough. The Yankees should be no surprise on this list as their bullpen has been a strength of their team for several years now, but the Reds and Indians were both in the bottom half of bullpen rankings last year and are much improved.
How do we leverage this information?
1. Attack teams with bad bullpens by stacking against them. In the case of the Orioles, it’s easy because you’re also targeting their starters often. But with Washington, it’s much different since their rotation has three starters that you wouldn’t target that often in Corbin, Strasburg, and Scherzer. By stacking against someone like Corbin, you’re hoping he gets knocked out early and the opposing team can feast on the Nats poor middle relief, a strategy that would likely be contrarian on many slates.
2. The opposite effect should also be something we consider then. If you’re looking to target a weaker starter on a team like the Yankees, say for instance a struggling J.A. Happ, then you had better hope your hitters get it done against him before he leaves because the matchup that follows him will be a tough one.
3. I like to look at the average length of start by each pitcher on the season. There are certain pitchers that because of the way they pitch, tend to build up big pitch counts and therefore rarely pitch deep into games. For example, take Robbie Ray, who is considered an elite strikeout pitcher, but also walks an average of 5 batters per nine innings and therefore racks up massive pitch counts. Since the start of last season, he is only lasting an average of 5.1 innings per start. If he had a bad bullpen backing him (which Arizona is pretty middle of the pack this year), then I’d consider stacking against him knowing that you’re likely to get 4 innings of that bullpen.
I hope this info helps you and your thought process when building those DFS lineups. I’ll continue to keep looking at trends and stats the rest of MLB season with the goal of unearthing some data that we can use to our advantage.
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