Monday Night Football: Steelers vs. Bengals
While last week’s Monday Night Football battle between the Ravens and Browns was an absolute barn burner, this week’s battle between their fellow AFC North division mates appears to be a much tamer matchup — on paper at least. While the Steelers have been skidding as of late, having dropped their last two games to Washington and Buffalo respectively, this week’s game should be an easy victory. Ever since Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury occurred, this Bengals team has been listless, scoring single digit points in two of their last three games. Pittsburgh clocked them in Week 10, winning by a score of 36-10. That was with Burrow in the lineup too. Expect a Pittsburgh-style beatdown from start to finish in this one, as the Steelers should use this as a “get right” game. Using the Odds Comparison Tool supplied by BettingData, let’s take a look at this division battle.
Game Info
- Spread: Steelers -12.5
- Total: 40
- See NFL Live Odds
It appears as though Ryan Finley will be starting this game, rather than Brandon Allen. While neither player has been anything short of a cheap band-aid as a spot starter, Finley’s college career was notable because of his game manager abilities. If Cincinnati can run the ball with some semblance of competence this game might be a bit competitive. The more likely outcome of course is the one where Pittsburgh is up 30-0 at the half and we see Allen in the game at the 10:00 mark of the third. Something tells me that Pittsburgh’s defense is going to come out with a fire that we’ve not seen since midseason, making the struggling offense’s life much easier. This game will be a great opportunity for the Steelers to figure out what the issue is with their running game as well, as James Conner has been dreadfully bad as the lead back in recent weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Overall: 11-2, 8-5 ATS
- Road: 5-1
The Steelers have been good at winning close games on the road this season. Though they’ve beaten road opponents by an average of 9.2 points, that average is skewed by their 27-3 victory over Jacksonville. With one score victories over Dallas, Tennessee, and Baltimore, the Steelers have been no stranger to tense road matchups. While the Bengals may be a pushover, these division games can get real weird late in the season. Something tells me that the Bengals would love to make Pittsburgh sweat in this one, so perhaps betting them to cover could be a good bet.
The Steelers are 7-0 in games where they score 26+ points, while Cincinnati’s defense is allowing exactly 26 points-per-game. While this should be an open and shut case, there are two variables worth monitoring. Cincinnati enters play with the fifth-worst run defense in the league, allowing 131.7 rushing yards-per-game. Pittsburgh is second-to-last in the league in terms of rushing offense, averaging 89.1 rushing yards-per-game. Cincinnati is 3-3 against the spread in games where they allow fewer than 131 rushing yards in a game this season, so the margin of victory will be heavily dependent on Pittsburgh moving the ball on the ground. Cincinnati is 7-3 against the spread in games where they’ve forced at least one turnover, so the turnover battle will be a huge area to monitor if you plan on betting on Pittsburgh.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Overall: 2-10-1, 7-6 ATS
- Home: 2-4
Both of Cincinnati’s victories this season have come at home, though both came with Joe Burrow under-center as well. While the team is 5-0 against the spread in games where they turnover the ball one or fewer times, the Steelers defense does lead the league with 25 total takeaways this season. With Finley making his first start of the season, we don’t know exactly how the Bengals offense will differ from what we’ve seen with Allen under-center — if it will at all. What we do know about Finley is that for his career he’s completed only 48.1% of his passes for 549 yards in seven career games. With a touchdown rate of just 1.9% and a sack rate of 14.5%, he should be dead meat for T.J Watt and the rest of the Steelers’ pass-rushers. Finley has averaged -2.58 adjusted net yards per attempt for his career. How does that even happen? What that tells me is that Finley won’t be getting the ball very far downfield, a good omen for any Steelers’ bettors. I like the Steelers’ odds to beat the spread this week and I might even suggest going over on the total based on how great of a matchup this is for them. Sorry Bengals fans if that depresses you, but this team is a smoldering crater right now.
Best Player Props
These odds and more found at DraftKings Sportsbook.
JuJu Smith-Schuster | Over 5.5 Receptions
Smith-Schuster has at least six receptions in nine games this season, including seven of his last eight outings. With Diontae Johnson’s drop issues, I see no reason why that won’t continue.
Ryan Finley | Under 16.5 Pass Completions
The Steelers are going to set out to ruin Finley’s life in this game. I have a strong feeling that he might be on the bench before this one is over. Even if he plays this entire game, Finley’s career completion rate suggests that he would need to throw roughly 36 passes in order to hit 17 completions. I’m not seeing it this week.
Tee Higgins | Over 3.5 Receptions
Since Joe Burrow’s injury, Higgins has exactly five catches in each of the Bengals’ games. While things may look different with Finley under-center, his chances to exceed this 3.5 line are pretty decent considering what the game script will be.
