Houston Texans (6-4) vs Dallas Cowboys (3-6)
- Spread: Texans -7
- Over/Under: 41.5
Breakdown
The battle for Texas this Monday Night sees both teams struggling entering this contest. The Texans have won just one of their last four games and the Cowboys have lost four straight contests. The Texans come into this game on a skid yet find themselves still atop the AFC South. A win here against a struggling Cowboys team will give the Texans a two-game lead in the division over the Colts, the Colts are the only competition in that division so it is pivotal to create a lead in the division. The Texans offense has shown flashes of being elite all season but injuries have slowed them down. Wide Receiver Nico Collins was off to a blistering pace to start the season but a hamstring injury has kept him out since week 6. Collins is still top 20 in the league in receiving yards and has only played 5 games. Getting him back will be huge for the efficiency of the passing attack who also just lost Stefon Diggs for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Tank Dell has stepped up and has shown flashes of his elite playmaking ability. C.J. Stroud has been off to a solid start but getting Collins back will surely boost his production. Stroud has 2,371 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Running Back, Joe Mixon has been a workhorse for this offense since returning from his injury that saw him sidelined for weeks 3-5. Mixon has seen 24 or more carries in 5 of his 7 games played this season. He has totaled over 100 rush yards in 5 games this season. This could be a get-right game for a Texans offense against what seems to be a defeated Dallas team.
The Cowboys find themselves at just a 3-6 record and are now without starting quarterback Dak Prescott for the rest of the season. Dak was not off to a great start to the season, passing for just 1,978 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Cooper Rush should see a majority of the reps at quarterback but expect Trey Lance to get an opportunity if Rush struggles. CeeDee Lamb has had a solid season even though the offense has struggled. Lamb has 59 receptions, 681 yards and 4 scores. The running back room has been a cluster this season but it seems to be heading in the direction of Rico Dowdle being the lead back. Dowdle has shown some flashes this season, rushing for 374 yards on 83 carries. He is also heavily involved in the passing game and has 3 receiving touchdowns this season.
Keys To Victory
Texans: Limit Dallas’ Big-Play Ability. I say this to say “Limit Lamb and Micah Parsons.” The Cowboys are running low on players who have a record of being game wreckers, so if the Texans can take them away on both sides of the ball, this should be a win for the Texans. Shadow Lamb with a safety all-game. Make Cooper Rush get anyone else the ball and beat you. Chip block Parsons and runs away from him all night. Make others step up and beat you.
Cowboys: Win the Turnover Battle. The Cowboys are not in a position to be chasing this game. They need to control the clock and win the turnover battle. If they allow the Texans to gain extra possessions, they are never going to keep up on the scoreboard. Winning the turnover battle should allow the Cowboys to control the clock and limit the time that they can give up points on defense.
Prop Bet Pick
Joe Mixon Over 86.5 Rush Yards
Mixon has smashed this line in all games he completed but one contest. The Cowboys have struggled to stop the run and the Texans have no problem feeding their lead tailback. Mixon is a vital part of the offense and is looking to bounce back after the Lions held him to just 46 yards rushing on 25 carries in week 10.
DFS Value Picks
Texans: Tank Dell. Dell has a very reasonable salary cost on both DraftKings and FanDuel DFS contests. Dell is coming off of back-to-back 9 target games and is still going to be heavily involved with Collins coming back. He has a strong connection with Stroud and should be relied on in this offense. Dell has tallied double-digit fantasy performances in 3 of the last 5 weeks.
Cowboys: Jake Ferguson. The Cowboys offense struggled last week, but Ferguson led the team in receiving yards. It wasn’t a large number, but when Rush gets hurried in the pocket, he looks to his closest target to the line of scrimmage and that is usually the tight end.
