Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) vs. Buffalo Bills (2-0)
- Spread: Bills -5.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
Breakdown
The Jaguars find themselves on the wrong side of 2 one-score games to start the season. Losing 20-17 to the Dolphins and 18-13 to the Browns. The Jaguars have gotten off to a very slow start but have shown flashes and have been competitive in both games thus far. The offense has just been sluggish to start the year. Trevor Lawrence has 382 pass yards and just 1 passing touchdown so far. Travis Etienne Jr. has scored in both games but only has 96 rush yards, he also has a costly goal-line fumble. It doesn’t help that Evan Engram, one of the league’s premier receiving tight ends, injured his hamstring in warmups of week 2, costing him that game and he will also be out for this contest against the Bills. The Jags need to get Christian Kirk way more involved in this offense. He has only seen 7 targets and he’s brought just 2 of them in for 29 yards. Rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has looked good to start his career, hauling in 6 receptions for 141 yards and 1 touchdown.
The Bills have gotten off to a scorching hot start, scoring more than 30 points in both games this season. The offense seems to be clicking even without a clear top pass-catching threat. The rush game has taken over, both Josh Allen and James Cook have been counted on to start the season, and they’ve delivered. Allen has been a bully at the goal line and that continues to be true, as he has 2 rushing touchdowns to go with his 3 passing touchdowns. James Cook recorded a hat trick of touchdowns in week 2 and is poised to be a focal point of the offense in the rush game, but also the passing game. Shakir has been the top target but rookie Keon Coleman will become more involved as the season advances. A quiet start for Dalton Kincaid, hauling in 5 passes for 44 yards so far this season.
Keys To Victory:
Jaguars: Pass Catchers need to step up. This is on both Lawrence and his receivers. They need to be more in sync to get this offense moving. Lawrence has not thrown an interception, but he only has 26 completions through 2 games. This would be ok if they were running efficiently, but Etienne has yet to surpass 55 rush yards in a game. This offense has the pieces and ability to take the next step.
Bills: Run the ball and control the clock. The Jags haven’t got into a rhythm yet this season and keeping them off the field could keep it that way. James Cook and Josh Allen have been effective this season, combining for 190 yards on the ground and 4 rushing touchdowns. Winning the time of possession battle is a good thing, especially to keep a team off the field that seems a bit disorganized and who is dealing with injuries to key players.
Prop Bet Pick
Brian Thomas Jr. Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Thomas Jr. has hit this line in both games this season. He is emerging as one of the top pass-catching options on the team and is leading in yards this season thus far. The Jaguars are not favored in this matchup so the positive game script for passing could help Thomas see extra targets while they trail in the game. Thomas seems to be the top playmaking option in this game, and with Engram missing the game due to injury, some of his vacated targets should go Thomas’s way.
Washington Commanders (1-1) vs Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)
- Spread: Bengals -7.5
- Over/Under: 46.5
Breakdown
The Commanders are coming off of a mighty 215 rush-yard performance last week against the Giants. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is one of the league’s most exciting prospects. He has shown flashes so far this season. Daniels has not thrown an interception in 2 games and has recorded a completion percentage of 70% or higher in both games. Not to mention, he’s added 132 yards on the ground and 2 scores. He needs to develop a stronger relationship with the wide receivers, especially Terry McLaurin. Daniels has basically only thrown to the running back and tight end position. McLaurin can be an elite playmaker, but only has 8 catches for 39 yards so far. Brian Robinson Jr. has been a great compliment to the speedy Daniels in the backfield. Robinson has 173 yards and Daniels has 132 yards on the ground this season.
The Bengals are off to another slow start, dropping their first two games of the season. Both were one-score games but this team needs to find a way to finish on the other end of these close games. Joe Burrow is off to a decent start to the season, throwing for 422 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Burrow is missing Tee Higgins through the first two games, but he should be getting him back for this week 3 contest. Higgins and Chase are one of the best receiver combos in the league and is a tough matchup for any defense in the league. Having them both on the field will be huge for the success of this team. The rushing attack has been lackluster since the beginning of the season. Zack Moss only has 78 yards and is averaging 3.7 yards a carry. I expect second-year back Chase Brown to become more involved in the rushing game if it continues to struggle. Tight End Mike Gesicki leads this team in receptions (10) and yards (109) throughout the first couple of weeks.
Keys To Victory:
Commanders: Get Pressure on Burrow. The Bengals have given up 6 sacks this season already. Protecting Burrow has been a problem for the Bengals in his career. If the Commanders an get pressure on the quarterback, this could lead to them forcing their first interception of the season.
Bengals: Dare Daniels to throw it deep. The Commanders have shown that they have no problem with running and throwing the short pass. Bengals baiting the young quarterback into deeper passes downfield could lead to a less successful and possibly forcing an interception. Containing Daniels in the pocket and forcing down field throws will benefit the Bengals.
Prop Bet Pick
Ja’Marr Chase Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
80.5 is a high yardage line but all the signs are pointing in Chase’s favor. The Commanders have struggled to cover wide receivers early in this season. Tee Higgins will be playing in his first game and will surely be limited in this contest slightly. The Bengals’ rushing attack has been lacking, so they could look to get the ball to their best playmaker, Ja’Marr Chase. I expect Chase to be heavily involved in the game plan, especially against a team who has given up 80+ yards in back-to-back games to their opponent top receiving option.
