Tennessee Titans (0-3) vs Miami Dolphins (1-2)
- Spread: Dolphins -2.5
- Over/Under: 37.5
Breakdown
With an over/under at only 37.5 points, that tells you plenty of what you need to know about this game; both these teams have been struggling on offense. The Titans have scored 17 or less in all 3 contests this season. Quarterback Will Levis has shown flashes but has also made some terrible turnovers. Levis has thrown for 579 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. The Titans have solid pass-catching options, but Ridley and Hopkins need to be utilized more downfield. Both of them only have 8 receptions through 3 games. Tony Pollard has been solid in both rushing and receiving this season, rushing for 158 yards, 4.1 yards per carry and has brought in 11 receptions.
The Dolphins’ season flipped on its head when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa got injured in their week 2 matchup. Scoring just 10 points and 3 points in their last 2 games without him, the offense has pivoted from Skylar Thompson to Tyler Huntley at quarterback in this week 4 contest. The Dolphins have speed all over the field and this offense should still be able to produce points. None is more impactful than Tyreek Hill. Hill has been one of the league’s best playmakers the last few seasons and should be seeing more opportunities than he has been seeing. Waddle has been slowed by this quarterback change tremendously as well. Getting the Chettah and the Penguin more involved is vital for this team’s success. Achane has been the lone bright spot on the offense the last few weeks, rushing for 150 yards and receiving 173 yards.
Keys To Victory
Titans: Limit the Turnovers. The Titans have shot themselves in the foot all season with turnovers. Losing by 1 score in the first 2 games and turning the ball over 3 times in week 3. This team could be competitive if they can have a safer offense with better playmaking decisions. The offense needs to help the defense out and have some long scoring drives to get them rested.
Dolphins: Get Hill and Waddle involved. Hill and Waddle are two of the league’s best pass catchers and they have not been utilized nearly well enough in the last 2 games. New quarterback Tyler Huntley needs to get them utilized early and often in this game. I expect a steady diet of screens, jet touch passes, and quick hitters for this Dolphins offense in Huntley’s first start.
Prop Bet Pick
De’Von Achane Over 56.5 Rush Yards (-113)
Achane is one play away from finding paydirt on any given snap. He has only hit this line in one contest, but with a new quarterback, I expect Achane to see plenty of opportunities. The offense has seemed to go as Achane goes thus far, so getting him going will be vital for the success of the Dolphins offense. Raheem Mostert is also a game-time decision with a chest injury. Achane should be getting most of the running back opportunities.
Seattle Seahawks (3-0) vs Detroit Lions (2-1)
- Spread: Lions -4.5
- Over/Under:46.5
Breakdown
The Seahawks have had the Lions number the last three seasons, besting them in all 3 contests under Dan Campbell. The Seahawks seem to be clicking on both sides of the ball to start this season. They have scored 73 points compared to only giving up 43 points through the first 3 games. Geno Smith has been everything the offense has asked for him to be. He is spreading the ball around to many different pass catchers and doing so with elite accuracy, sitting at a 74.8% completion percentage. Both Metcalf and Smith-Njigba have 17 total receptions already this season. Kenneth Walker will be active for this game after missing the last two weeks with an oblique injury. Walker had a very strong week 1 performance and will be looking to carry that over against a very stout rush defense.
The Lions have become America’s team and all eyes will be on them in this tightly matched contest. The Lions find themselves at 2-1 but have yet to really look like the team that went to the NFC Championship game last season. Jared Goff has looked alright to start the season but has more turnovers than touchdowns so far. Goff and this offense can be so much more efficient and effective than it has been. Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St.Brown have been great compliments to each other. Both with more than 200 receiving yards, but St.Brown has 10 more catches. Tight End Sam LaPorta is off to a slow start but look for him to become more involved very soon. The Lions rushing attack has been electric to start this season. The combination of Gibbs and Montgomery has been stellar so far. Both halfbacks have rushed for over 200 yards and have both scored.
Keys To Victory
Seahawks: Passing attack. The Lions have a very stout rush defense and will make the ground game difficult. Geno Smith has been great to start the season but, needs to continue it to take down the Lions. He has great playmakers around him and has proven he can spread the ball around. This could be tough for a Lions secondary that has looked a little shaky to start the season.
Lions: Stretch the field. Goff ranks near the bottom of the league in average air yards per target. The Lions seem not to be trying to take as many deep shots to start the season. The Seahawks have held all 3 starting quarterbacks they’ve faced to start the season to less than 150 pass yards so Goff having success downfield will be huge for the running game. Success downfield also will open up the play-action passes that the Lions run so effectively. Jameson Williams should be seeing a few deep balls every game and this is no exception.
Prop Bet Pick
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 75 Rush + Receiving Yards (-130)
Gibbs should see a heavy workload in this game. The Lions offense seems to be fine taking the short passes and Gibbs thrives after the catch. Gibbs has already hauled in 11 passes on 13 targets. He is averaging over 5 yards a carry to start the season and, is averaging 4 targets a game. This is a good recipe for quality touches in what is shaping up to be a competitive matchup.
