New Orleans Saints (2-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
- Spread: Chiefs -5.5
- Over/Under: 43.5
Breakdown
The Saints started the season red-hot, scoring 47 and 44 points in their first 2 games. They have cooled off the last 2 weeks losing both games by just one score. They have their hands full with this 4-0 Chiefs team but it would be foolish to write them off in this matchup. The Saints offense has proven they can put up points and running back Alvin Kamara is at the forefront of that attack. Kamara has been lights out to start the season, rushing for 362 yards and 5 touchdowns. Not to mention, he’s added in 17 receptions for 174 yards and another score. Derek Carr has been impressive through the first 4 weeks. He has thrown for 824 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. If he can continue to protect the ball, this offense can get back on track and put up some big-scoring games again. Getting Chris Olave more involved will be vital for the offense. He has 20 catches for 265 yards, but just 1 touchdown. Do it all tight end, Taysom Hill will be missing this contest with a rib injury.
The Chiefs have been very clutch this season, coming out on the winning side of 4 one-score games to start this season. Mahomes and the Chiefs just know what it takes to close games out in the 4th. Mahomes has had to throw plenty this season with the loss of Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco is on the IL right now with a fibula injury but is expected to return later this season at some point. The Chiefs have gone running back by committee with Pacheco’s absence. Carson Steele and Samaje Perine were getting the bulk of the opportunities until they brought in a familiar face, Kareem Hunt, just a couple of weeks ago. The loss of top receiver, Rashee Rice has also been very difficult for the team. Rice left week four’s contest with a knee injury, and it didn’t look good, but the Chiefs have yet to announce the severity of the injury. Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, and Juju Smith-Schuster need to step up in his absence. Travis Kelce got off to a very slow start but has started to pick it up. Kelce has brought in 15 receptions for 158 yards, 89 of those yards coming in week 4, and he has yet to score this year.
Keys To Victory
Saints: The Passing Attack. The Chiefs have been excellent against the run this season so Kamara may have a tough time getting it going on the ground. If Carr and the pass catchers can open up this defense, the run game should open up, Look for the Saints to get Kamara involved in the passing game. He is an excellent playmaker and they should manufacture touches for him in any way possible.
Chiefs: Establish the Run. It may be easier said than done, but with all the pass catchers injured for the Chiefs, having a positive rushing attack will free up the offense. Mahomes will do his thing, but Hunt and Steele need to move the chains so Pat can connect with Kelce more often in the play-action game. Look for rookie speedster Xavier Worthy to see plenty of targets and potentially some rush attempts/end-arounds.
Prop Bet Pick
Xavier Worthy Over 50 Yards Receiving (+135)
It seems a little aggressive but Worthy should be so involved in this matchup. He is also coming off a 73-yard receiving game in week 4. Worthy should see plenty of targets but with his playmaking ability, he only needs 1 play to pick up 50 yards. With Rice hurt, someone needs to step up on the outside and Worthy looks to be that guy. Kelce should take plenty of underneath targets, but I expect Worthy to see plenty of downfield targets with quick hitters and designed screens for him mixed in.
I like this play around 60 Yards as well if you can get a rushing + receiving yards line.
DFS Sleeper Picks
Saints: Juwan Johnson. Not flashy at all but Kamara, Carr, Olave, and Shaheed are all much more salary to put in your lineup. Not just that though, Johnson has a great positional matchup, the Chiefs rank last in defending the tight end position for fantasy scoring. With the Chiefs elite rush defense, and the absence of Taysom Hill, Johnson should see the bulk of the tight end snaps and he is a redzone target for Carr given his large frame.
Chiefs: Xavier Worthy. He is barely more expensive than all the other wide receivers and he has proven to be the best one so far this season. Good luck picking which Chiefs running back will be the most involved/ score a touchdown. Paying up slightly for Worthy is worth it based off his expected volume and his big-play ability.
