Monday Night Football Week 9 Preview
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (7-0)
- Spread: Chiefs -9.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
Breakdown
The Bucs are off to an electric start offensively but find themselves at just 4-4 through 8 games. The top two pass catchers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, are both out for this matchup and will miss more games this season. They are both off to great starts so this is a huge loss to an offense that has been very productive this season. Baker Mayfield has been excellent to start this season. Baker has thrown for 2,189 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He has done everything this team has asked of him and has been great doing it. He has a solid completion percentage at 71% and has even added in 2 rushing touchdowns. The backfield is a bit crowded as it seems to be a split between Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, and Sean Tucker getting an occasional carry. Irving is a rookie who has looked very explosive with his given carries. Irving has 395 rush yards and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Both he and Rachaad White are involved in the passing game as well. White has been stifled in the rush game but has shown flashes in the receiving game. White is only averaging 3.8 yards a carry but has added 28 receptions for 236 yards and 3 scores. Tight end Cade Otton has been one of the best pass-catching tight ends this season. Otton has brought in 36 receptions for 344 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Chiefs are undefeated but have not been the most convincing team this season. They are playing winning ball, but different from how we have seen them play the last few seasons. Mahomes is off to a very un-Mahomes start to this season. He has tossed more interceptions than touchdowns and is averaging just 235 yards passing per game. They are doing what it takes to win every game and they are comfortable doing it. Under Andy Reid and with Mahomes, they know how to win close games, or high scoring contests. The Chiefs know how to win and when top pass catcher Rashee Rice and starting running back Isiah Pacheco suffered serious injuries that have seen them miss most of the season, they turned to many veterans to get the job done. The Chiefs are top 5 in time of possession and actually, they and the Buccaneers are the two best 3rd down conversion teams. Travis Kelce got off to a slow start this season but has picked it up recently and is a big part of the Chiefs success. Kelce has 38 receptions for 335 yards.
Keys To Victory
Buccaneers: The Running Back Play. Rachaad White and Bucky Irving need to step up in this game. The Bucs are without their top 2 pass catchers and will need every offensive player’s involvement to have an efficient offense. The Chiefs have a very stout rush defense, so getting the ground game going early or being effective in the receiving game out of the backfield will open up many avenues for the offense and Mayfield.
Chiefs: Controlling the Game. This is something the Chiefs do extremely well. They pick up their third downs and find ways to win the time of possession. The Bucs have a potent offense, even without Godwin and Evans. Controlling the clock and finding ways to score is what the Chiefs do and that’s why they are such heavy favorites in this matchup. They play some ugly, winning football and I expect that again in a game that could see some tough weather conditions.
Prop Bet Pick
Cade Otton Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Otton has seen 10 targets in back-to-back matchups and I expect that trend to continue in this game. The Chiefs are heavily favored so that means the Bucs will be throwing and playing catch-up. Otton has 100 and 81 yards receiving in his last 2 games. He is the most proven pass catcher left in this offense and Baker knows to get him the ball. The weather could be a factor as well so we could see plenty of quick passes to the tight end position.
DFS Value Picks
Buccaneers: Jalen McMillan. McMillan is a rookie receiver who has shown some good flashes this season. He was a late addition to the injury report but is expected to play. McMillan will play a large role in the offense in Evans and Godwin’s absence. He has seen 15 targets combined in the last two weeks, indicating that he is the top target at the receiver position.
Chiefs: DeAndre Hopkins. Hunt, Kelce, and Worthy are the main playmakers on this team, and finding value at a lesser cost is tough for this team. Hopkins is a good receiver who should continue to get acclimated to his new team. He had 2 receptions in his first game with his new team and should see more targets as he gets more comfortable.
