NBA DFS Picks
Every Wednesday, I’ll be diving into a loaded NBA schedule to find you some legitimate difference-makers for the DraftKings main slate — with the help of our NBA Advanced Metrics, NBA Optimizer and NBA DraftKings Projections pages.
What you’ll see when you come to this weekly column are our four favorite values of the night. Whether that’s an All-Star that is priced too low and is bound to explode or an absolute bargain that is capable of supporting your high-scoring studs, this is where you’ll want to look before submitting your lineups.
Last week, Norman Powell ended up being a bit too obvious of a play in daily fantasy, as the Portland Trail Blazers ended up being without nearly every single one of their starting guards. He did have 34 fantasy points in DraftKings in that game, but we’re going to try to do a better job of getting you players that won’t be heavily rostered in the slate. However, it is important that you do some of your own research in this one. COVID-19 is sweeping through the NBA right now, so you never know who will end up being out. Try to stay on top of injury reports as much as you can in the coming week.
With that in mind, here are our favorite players for the 11-game NBA slate on Wednesday, December 15, when the Dallas Mavericks host the Los Angeles Lakers and the Los Angeles Clippers face the Utah Jazz in what should be an awesome doubleheader on ESPN:
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Monte Morris, Denver Nuggets (vs. Minnesota Timberwolves) – $5,800
Monte Morris is playing some great basketball for the Nuggets recently, as he comes into this one averaging 15.7 points, 4.6 assists, and 3.0 rebounds per game over the last 10 contests. Morris has also had five games in which he’s had at least 28.5 fantasy points in DraftKings in that span.
The guard now goes up against a Timberwolves team that can often struggle to contain opposing point guards. D’Angelo Russell is arguably the team’s weakest defender in the starting five, and he’ll spend a lot of time matched up on Morris. Morris has the quickness to blow by Russell and get to the basket, and he also has the mid-range game to drill some jumpers once Russell starts to ease off to prevent the drive.
Earlier in the year, Morris had 16 points, five assists, four rebounds, and a steal in an October 30 meeting with the Timberwolves. Don’t be surprised if Morris turns in a similar performance here, especially with the expanded offensive role he’s been enjoying as of late.
Aaron Gordon, Denver Nuggets (vs. Minnesota Timberwolves) – $6,200
Much like Morris, Aaron Gordon is playing well for the Nuggets coming into this meeting with the Timberwolves. Gordon has had five games with at least 31 fantasy points on DraftKings over the last nine contests, and he now gets his crack at a Timberwolves defense that is beginning to unravel at this point in the year.
Minnesota started the season as one of the best defensive teams in basketball, but the Timberwolves are just 26th in the NBA in defensive rating over the last five games. Minnesota has given up an average of 122.8 points per game in its last four contests, and this should be yet another high-scoring basketball game.
When these two teams met on October 30, Gordon had 12 points, four rebounds, two assists, two blocks and two steals in 31 minutes of action. Don’t be surprised if he scores at least 18 in this game, and he should similarly stuff the stat sheet. As a jack-of-all-trades forward, that’s just what he does.
Grayson Allen, Milwaukee Bucks (vs. Indiana Pacers) – $4,000
Khris Middleton is questionable for the Bucks in this meeting with the Pacers, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is already out for Milwaukee. That means that Mike Budenholzer will be looking for a few players to step it up offensively in this game, and one of those players could be Grayson Allen.
Allen is in the middle of a career year in his first season with the Bucks, as he’s averaging a career-high 12.9 points per game. He’s also shooting 41.4 percent from the outside this season, and that’s also the highest mark of his young career. Earlier in the season, the Bucks relied heavily on Allen to score the basketball, as they were dealing with Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton being in and out of the lineup. Allen delivered by consistently scoring in double figures, and he also got himself into the rebound and steal columns.
With the Bucks once again looking to lean on some different guys, don’t be surprised if Allen comes through in a big way for daily fantasy players. He had 19 points, four rebounds, a block, and a steal in 32 minutes of action against the Pacers back on October 25, and he could once again light up this mediocre Indiana defense.
Spencer Dinwiddie, Washington Wizards (vs. Sacramento Kings) – $5,500
This season has been a grind for Washington’s Spencer Dinwiddie, who was inked to a three-year, $54 million contract during the offseason. Dinwiddie has struggled to find consistency for this Wizards team, which isn’t all that surprising with the 28-year-old guard coming off of a torn ACL.
Dinwiddie is now coming off back-to-back games in which he played just 24 minutes, and he scored a total of 21 points in what ended up being two losses. However, after the loss to the Nuggets on Monday, Wizards head coach Wes Unseld Jr. said that he wants to see Dinwiddie being more aggressive in pick-and-roll situations. That would be huge for the guard, who has excelled as a pick-and-roll ball-handler in the past.
It only helps Dinwiddie that the Washington’s next game is against a miserable Sacramento team. The Kings are just 27th in the league in defensive rating this season, and they have given up at least 124 points to their opponents in three of the last four games. This game should be yet another high-scoring affair, which is another reason to expect Dinwiddie to get the job done here. The Wizards have gone Over the total in six of their last seven games, and the Kings have gone Over in seven of their last 10.
