NFL DFS Picks: Week 13
If you’ve played DFS for a few years, you might’ve noticed that winning tends to become more difficult as the season rolls along. This phenomenon is particularly noticeable in cash games, where what feels like a smooth endeavor for the first month often turns into razor-thin edges of 2-for-2 and 3-for-3 swaps deciding the day in later weeks. Sure, we’d expect the field to get sharper year over year, as people develop new tools and resources and statistical insights—but why the significant jump within what should be roughly the same player pool week over week?
Well, here’s the thing, and it’s one of the key differences between competition in season-long fantasy sports as opposed to DFS; it’s not entirely the same pool of competitors. DFS is inherently a Darwinian field, and in a fitting analogy to natural selection, weak DFS players “die out” by… losing their entries and moving on with their lives. With the rake as high as it is, one doesn’t need to just be slightly above average to have sustained success—it takes being significantly better. Over the past month, just 14% of DraftKings players have been net winners, and the top 1% of DraftKings users—making up 23% of all entry fees—have earned 46% of the winnings. In other words, a few people are winning huge, and just about everyone else is losing money.
If you’re playing DFS for entertainment, keep doing your thing, but if maximizing every edge possible to make a profit is your modus operandi, you might want to scale back your play a bit this deep in the year. As the “fish” lose out, the sharper players are the only options still lurking to go up against, and it’s tough to have anywhere near the same leg up after a dozen weeks have continuously weeded out the weaker players. Now, given you’re here, you clearly are committed to diving in with the best—let’s dive into my Week 13 NFL DFS Picks to live on another day.
Quarterback
The Seahawks seem to have shut down their high-flying offense and the Cardinals have a tough matchup with the Rams, so I don’t think it’s a spot where you need to pay up for Russell Wilson ($7700 on DraftKings) or Kyler Murray ($7600) or Deshaun Watson ($7500) now that he’s missing Will Fuller. You could give Aaron Rodgers ($6800) or Kirk Cousins ($6400) a go, banking on continued efficiency, though honestly, I expect both of those two to regress in regards to their TD rates over time.
It might come as a surprise, but the highest-totaled game on the slate is Browns-Titans (53.5), and with an implied team total of 29.75, Ryan Tannehill ($6200) could be the best QB from a value standpoint—while Baker Mayfield ($5300) could also work as a punt. If he gets another start, Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6000) churns out fantasy production, and Mitch Trubisky ($5400) has historically done well against Detroit. Even deeper, Mike Glennon ($4800) is a total salary saver.
Favorite Plays: Aaron Rodgers ($6800), Ryan Tannehill ($6200), Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6000)
Running Back
Look, Dalvin Cook ($9500) had 22 touches last week against a bad run defense; 11 points was essentially his floor for a solid workload. That said, given he appears slightly banged up and Derrick Henry ($9200) is now in his favorite month, I might give my early edge to Henry at the lower price. Given that the Browns are six-point underdogs, Kareem Hunt ($5400) could be interesting, though Nick Chubb ($7700) and a Cleveland win would be a natural leverage call off the Titans.
Despite bumping $1000 in salary, James Robinson ($7300) is in play given his usage; Austin Ekeler ($7100) won’t see 16 targets every week but is clearly back into a full-time role. I’m anticipating ownership for Miles Sanders ($6900) being lower than his true odds of producing, though both are admittedly grim, Chris Carson ($6300) will still be the guy as he eases back, and Myles Gaskin ($5900) is finally set to return.
If Josh Jacobs ($7400) sits, Devontae Booker ($5500) has obvious appeal; so too David Montgomery ($5500) at the same spot. You could try exposure to the Colts RBs—Jonathan Taylor ($5700) returns to the fold, while Nyheim Hines ($5300) maintains a PPR floor—after that, it dries up. The only 4K-range options that I’d even consider making note of (until we get additional news) are Cam Akers ($4500), Darrell Henderson ($4300), and Frank Gore ($4400).
Favorite Plays: Derrick Henry ($9200), Austin Ekeler ($7100), Myles Gaskin ($5900), David Montgomery ($5500), Kareem Hunt ($5400)
Wide Receiver
I’m always happy to play Davante Adams ($9000) or D.K. Metcalf ($8200), though I’m probably giving preference to paying up for my top RB play on this slate if pressed to choose. We have seen some solid performances from slot-heavy WRs against the Giants if you want to try Tyler Lockett ($7400), albeit with an inflated salary despite being on a cold streak. Given the Vikings have the highest team total on the slate (31.5), you can certainly go with Adam Thielen ($7300) or Justin Jefferson ($6900) in what’s a nicely concentrated offense. Allen Robinson ($6700) is good at football and could be a league-winner with how friendly his upcoming schedule looks.
If Fitzpatrick is starting, you play Devante Parker ($6400). The volatile nature of the Rams’ passing offense doesn’t turn me away from Cooper Kupp ($6100) in tournaments, while Jarvis Landry ($6200) can ball when the weather isn’t prohibitive, and Brandin Cooks ($5600) is the clear #1 downfield weapon in Houston now. On the other side of that AFC South contest, Michael Pittman Jr. ($4900) saw nine targets a week ago.
The price hike might discourage people from rostering Denzel Mims ($4100), yet he really doesn’t need much to pay off with a slew of downfield looks and an average of 16.7 yards/reception. Keke Coutee ($3500) and Isaiah Coulter ($3000) are the other guys who should see an immediate increase in work, and Darnell Mooney ($3400) boasted 138 air yards in Week 12. I also feel compelled to mention D.J. Chark Jr. ($5400) if he suits up, since it’s not out of the question for him to boom at a relatively low cost.
Favorite Plays: D.K. Metcalf ($8200), Allen Robinson ($6700), Davante Parker ($6400), Brandin Cooks ($5600), Keke Coutee ($3500)
Tight End
Did you know that Darren Waller ($6100) has broken >50 yards just three times this season? That’s the theoretical landmark on this slate for TE. It was encouraging to see Evan Engram ($4900) with 107 air yards (and 129 real ones) to his name; Hunter Henry ($4800) has 30 targets over his last four showings. T.J. Hockenson ($5000) is putting together a steady sophomore season, also.
Dallas Goedert ($4300) hangs as the safest piece of a disappointing Eagles offense, and Robert Tonyan ($3700) has found a target share again after a couple quiet games. Going back to Kyle Rudolph ($3400) makes sense if Irv Smith Jr. misses again, and Jordan Akins ($2900) wasn’t far from a couple scores on Thanksgiving, which is more than you can even ask for at this point.
Favorite Plays: T.J. Hockenson ($5000), Dallas Goedert ($4300), Kyle Rudolph ($3400)
Fellow FantasyData expert Chris Mitchell and I co-host a podcast, Slate Breakers, going into further detail on each DFS main slate. Episodes will be embedded in these preview articles once live later in the week, and for even more content, make sure to follow me on Twitter.
