NFL Pick ‘Em Week 10
With Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, and the Giants off this week, we’ve got another 14 games to handicap here in Week 10.
2021 ATS record season-to-date: 71-62-2
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans (-3)
Winners of five straight both straight up and against the spread, and 7-of-8 overall, the Titans seem like they should be favored by more than the obligatory three points handed to home teams. New Orleans has alternated spread win and losses each week of the season, and if that trend continues, the Saints should cover after losing straight up at home to Atlanta last week. I have a hard time betting on Trevor Siemian going on the road and beating a legit Tennessee team, so I’m picking the Titans to win again.
- My Prediction: Tennessee 24, New Orleans 20
- My Pick: Titans -3
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (+14)
In this AFC East rivalry, the Jets typically play pretty well against Buffalo. The clubs have split ATS wins each matchup dating back to the 2018 season and New York has outright won or lost by fewer than double-digit points in each of the last five meetings. However, the Bills are sure to be highly motivated to bounce back after an embarrassing loss in Jacksonville one week ago. I typically tend to like big home underdogs and think Mike White has been playing well enough to lean on the Jets to keep this game closer than expected.
- My Prediction: Buffalo 31, New York 20
- My Pick: Jets +14
Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
This is the prime spot for the Cowboys to bounce back after their embarrassing performance last week. As well as Atlanta has played of late, the Falcons still allow the 5th-most points on defense and don’t generate enough pressure or force turnovers. I think Dallas rebounds with a fairly comfortable win but think Atlanta has enough momentum to proceed with caution.
- My Prediction: Dallas 30, Atlanta 20
- My Pick: Cowboys -9
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-10)
The last eight games in this AFC South rivalry have been decided by an average of 14.4 points, with Jacksonville winning five of the games. The Jaguars actually boast a 4-1-1 ATS record in their last six against the Cotls and should have a lot of momentum coming off of a stunning upset over Buffalo. However, owing to the recent history of this series and the fact that the Colts are playing their best football of the season, including being 5-1 ATS since Week 4, I think the trend of big wins in this series continues.
- My Prediction: Indianapolis 28, Jacksonville 14
- My Pick: Colts -10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team (+9.5)
Tampa Bay lost their last game in New Orleans and have now had a full two weeks to prepare for Washington. Tom Brady, who still leads the NFL in passing touchdowns, is 47-22 ATS after a loss and gets a choice matchup with the league’s last-ranked pass defense. This once could get ugly, and the only way the Football Team can cover is probably if the Bucs call off the dogs in the fourth quarter.
- My Prediction: Tampa Bay 34, Washington 21
- My Pick: Buccaneers -9.5
Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-2)
This line seems right on. Should be a low-scoring slugfest. Both teams are 5-4 versus the number, with Cleveland being 3-1 on the road. Both teams boast a top-10 overall defense and there is some uncertainty about who will be the starting running back on both teams. That may place more emphasis on the passing attack, which probably gives Cleveland a very slight edge. I’m not really confident in this contest so would avoid it in reality, but for our purposes, I’m leaning on the visitors.
- My Prediction: Cleveland 20, New England 17
- My Pick: Browns +2
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5)
Talk about two teams that I wouldn’t like to have money on. Detroit is the league’s only winless squad and the Steelers, despite winning four straight, have been difficult to watch. The Lions haven’t scored 20 points since Week 1 and I certainly don’t expect them to hit that mark in Pittsburgh. However, the Steelers are just 1-4 ATS at home, so the Lions have a puncher’s chance of hanging around in what should be a fairly low-scoring battle.
- My Prediction: Pittsburgh 20, Detroit 16
- My Pick: Lions +8.5
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
Minnesota has played pretty well on the road, posting a 3-1 mark against the spread and a stellar 4-0 record on the OVER. The Vikings also have an underrated defense and can cause problems for Justin Herbert and company. The Chargers dropped their last home game to New England and have averaged just 14 points per game in their last three games at SoFi Stadium.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 21, Minnesota 20
- My Pick: Vikings +3.5
Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-10)
After opening the season 3-0, the Panthers have dropped 5-of-6 and now will be turning to backup QB P.J. Walker. While Sam Darnold’s eroding play didn’t inspire much confidence, Walker hasn’t looked good at all when thrust into action this season. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray is expected to be back under center for the Cardinals, who just stepped up and shut down San Francisco in a game they played without Murry or Deandre Hopkins.
- My Prediction: Arizona 31, Carolina 17
- My Pick: Cardinals -10
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-3)
All three of Philadelphia’s victories this season have come on the road, strangely. The Eagles have found a little more success since becoming a run-heavy offense but Denver is the league’s sixth-best run defense. The Broncos got off to a stunning 30-0 lead last week in Dallas against the Eagles’ rivals and could be ripe for a let-down game here. The Broncos are also just 1-2 ATS when the spread is between 1-4 points.
- My Prediction: Eagles 21, Broncos 20
- My Pick: Philadelphia +3
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Until there is some clarity on the status of Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers, this game is a fade. My lean is on Seattle, who should have QB Russell Wilson back under center. Even if Rodgers is cleared to start, we don’t know if he’ll be limited or how the distractions of last week will affect the Packers.
- My Prediction: Green Bay 26, Seattle 23
- My Pick: Seahawks +3.5
Kansas City Cheifs at Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5)
It feels like the wrong team is favored here. Opposing defenses have now figured out using a Cover-2 look to mitigate big plays has really slowed down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing attack. Until Kansas City is willing to punish their opponents by running the ball, this is likely to continue. Conversely, the Raiders have a pair of excellent cornerbacks but have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards. Las Vegas won 40-32 last year at Arrowhead and covered both games against the Chiefs. My Prediction: Las Vegas 27, Kansas City 23
- My Prediction: Las Vegas 26, Kansas City 23
- My Pick: Raiders +2.5
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (+4.5)
San Francisco is 0-4 against the spread at home this season but generally does well against the Rams. The 49ers have won four consecutive games against LA and covered in three of the four. The Rams have also dropped three straight games ATS as favorites of 7-plus points.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 24, San Francisco 20
- My Pick: 49ers +4.5
Thursday Night Pick: Dolphins +8.5
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