NFL Pick ‘Em
The old half-point loss. That was the difference between a winning week and a losing week. Seems like that happens all the time, too. It’s probably just that those losses resonate more and longer than the few games you get right thanks to the smallest of margins. It is what it is. So we march forward after a 7-8 mark in Week 12.
There are four teams on bye in Week 13, so we only have 14 games to break down.
2021 ATS record season-to-date: 91-86-2
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (+7.5)
Arizona is hoping to be at full strength coming off of their bye. The good news for the Cardinals is that QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins have both bull practicing. Arizona is 5-0 on the road and 5-0 ATS as visitors, with the under-hitting frequently. Meanwhile, it’s looking like another start for Andy Dalton for the Bears, who are 1-5 in their last six games both straight up and versus the number.
- My Prediction: Arizona 30, Chicago 20
- My Pick: Cardinals -7.5
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (+6.5)
Last week was a low point for Philadelphia, who could get no offense going in New York, while the Jets managed to get their third victory in Houston. The second game in a row at MetLife should go better for Jalen Hurts and company, as the Jets have been one of the worst defensive teams in football over the past six weeks. The Eagles have won five consecutive games against the Jets, each by seven or more points overall, and Philly is also 5-0 in their last five on the road against the Jets.
- My Prediction: Philadelphia 28, New York 13
- My Pick: Eagles -6.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (+10.5)
When these two NFC South rivals squared off in Week 2, Tom Brady threw for five touchdowns and the Bucs destroyed the Falcons 48-25. While the Falcons have managed to hang tough in the NFC wild-card race, Atlanta has 4-of-5 to Tampa Bay and lost six of their last seven overall games straight up at Mercedes-Benz. It feels like there are a ton of home dogs this week, which is generally a good betting proposition. Here’s hoping the Falcons can hang around and pull out a backdoor cover.
- My Prediction: Tampa Bay 33, Atlanta 24
- My Pick: Falcons +10.5
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-4.5)
Miami has really turned their season around after a brutal start. The Dolphins have won four of their last five overall and are 4-0-1 ATS during the stretch. The Giants were able to come away with a surprising home win last week but in the process lost QB Daniel Jones. While the G-Men have been a very good ATS road team over the past two years, I’m not about to bet on Mike Glennon facing a red-hot Dolphins squad.
- My Prediction: Miami 24, New York 13
- My Pick: Dolphins -4.5
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+7)
The last time the Lions won a home game was Week 10 of the 2020 season against the Bears. Granted, they generally keep games close, but find a way to lose in the end. Detroit has dropped five straight home games to the Vikings and has covered in only two of their last eight meetings with Minnesota. All but one of Minnesota’s games this season have been one-possession games, including a narrow 19-17 home victory over the Lions in Week 5.
- My Prediction: Minnesota 20, Detroit 17
- My Pick: Lions +7
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The Chargers have been reeling against the spread, dropping five of their last six overall. Historically, LA also hasn’t one well when traveling to Cincinnati. This line is puzzling to me because Vegas is saying these teams are even and I disagree. It feels like the Chargers should be favored by 4-5 points, so we’re getting some value on the home team.
- My Prediction: Cincinnati 27, Los Angeles 23
- My Pick: Bengals -3
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+9.5)
The Texans haven’t enjoyed much home-field advantage recently. The Texans have lost seven of their last eight games at NRG Stadium and have dropped five straight ATS at home to the Colts. T.Y. Hilton routinely thrives in Houston and the total has gone over in seven of Indy’s last eight road contests. It’s always appealing to take home dogs by such a large number but I can’t justify any reason to choose the lowly Texans.
- My Prediction: Indianapolis 31, Houston 17
- My Pick: Colts -9.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams (-13)
Los Angeles is reeling but relief should come in the form of the 2-9 Jaguars. This is only the sixth meeting between the two franchises, with the Rams holding a 4-1 mark in the series, and 5-0 ATS. Jacksonville has really struggled to score on the road, while the Rams have gone under in 10 of their last 13 home games. Considering how bad LA’s offense has looked recently, the under is my favorite play in this game.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 27, Jacksonville 16
- My Pick: Jaguars +`13
Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
Las Vegas halted a three-game slide on Thanksgiving and now returns home to face a surging Washington squad that has reeled off three consecutive games to get right back into the NFC playoff picture. Las Vegas is only 2-4 ATS at home and is likely to be without their top pass-catcher in tight end Darren Waller. Meanwhile, the under has hit in five of Washington’s last six games and Washington is also 3-0 ATS during their winning streak.
- My Prediction: Washington 23 Las Vegas 20
- My Pick: Football Team +2.5
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)
The last time Lamar Jackson played in Pittsburgh, he tossed three picks but the Ravens held on to beat the Steelers 26-23. Jackson was brutal last week and has not played well on the road this season, but the Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home and 0-4-1 ATS when facing the Ravens at Heinz Field. The under looks solid in this game, but my lean is on the Ravens.
- My Prediction: Baltimore 24, Pittsburgh 20
- My Pick: Steelers +4.5
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
Generally, Seattle has been a very good ATS team at home, especially as a home dog. But this 2021 Seahawks squad is simply not good and has dropped 4-of-6 against the spread and 5-of-6 straight up at Lumen Field. San Francisco has won 4-of-5 outright and ATS but has historically been terrible in Seattle. The Niners are 2-14 in their last 16 games versus the Seahawks, including 1-9 in Seattle.
- My Prediction: San Francisco 24, Seattle 23
- My Pick: Seahawks +3.5
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
The ope for Kansas City fans is that Andy Reid was able to scheme up some ways for his offense to combat the 2-high safety looks that are becoming prevalent around the league. Denver still has a solid defense and the Broncos have done a fairly solid job containing QB Patrick Mahomes over the past two seasons, even though the Chiefs have won five straight in this series. The best angle here seems to be on the under, which has hit in the last five Broncos games and five of the last six Chiefs’ contests.
- My Prediction: Kansas City 23, Denver 20
- My Pick: Broncos +9.5
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-3)
This should be a really intriguing Sunday night football battle for the AFC East lead. The surging Patriots have won six in a row both outright and versus the spread, while Buffalo has alternated wins and losses in every game since Week 5. The Bills still have a potent defense and New England QB Mac Jones has played far better at home than on the road. The Bills have won 10 of their last 12 home contests but the Patriots have won 8-of-9 in Buffalo.
- My Prediction: Buffalo 27, New England 20
- My Pick: Bills -3
