NFL Pick ‘Em Week 15
We’ve reached the postseason part of the fantasy season but the NFL keeps marching forward, despite the ongoing wave of absences brought on by the pandemic. With so many players potentially absent in Week 15, it’s going to be difficult to handicap what is the first 16-game slate in some time.
Off the heels of a strong 9-4 ATS mark last week, I’ll look to keep the wins coming while navigating the troubled waters. Keep in mind that things can change in a hurry depending on breaking news of players who might be unexpectedly ruled out.
2021 ATS record season-to-date: 108-96-2
UPDATE: Due to wild line movement, some of these odds were adjusted after publish, but no picks were changed.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (+3)
For me, this is a game to fade. The Browns are being decimated by COVID and are going to have trouble mounting a credible offense with Case Keenum and a rag-tag group of wideouts. This game opened with the Browns as 5-point favorites and has completely flipped. It’s also dipped from 44 to 38.5 points. Cleveland is just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and the Raiders have won eight of their last 12 road games. Still, Keenum is competent and I can see the Browns simply grinding out a conservative offense against a team that is 31st in defense on the road.
Update: line change with news of Mullens starting
- My Prediction: Cleveland 23, Las Vegas 20
- My Pick: Browns +3
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)
Unlike the Cleveland game, the over/under has jumped 2.5 points in this potential AFC playoff battle. The Colts have had two weeks to prepare for this showdown, while Mac Jones played far better at home than he has on the road. Indianapolis has won seven of their last 10 games overall but has dropped fives straight to Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Meanwhile, New England is 5-0 straight up and ATS in their last five and are 17-3-1 versus the number in their last 21 games in Indy.
- My Prediction: New England 26, Indianapolis 23
- My Pick: Patriots -2.5
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-9)
Despite also being hit hard by the virus, the Dolphins have jumped up two points to 9-point home favorites against the lowly Jets, who are 3-10-1 ATS this season and 1-5 ATS on the road. Miami has outright won 7-of-8 against New York and has won five in a row at home against their rivals. The Dolphins entered the Week 14 bye as one of the hottest teams in football and they should have no problems continuing their winning ways, but potentially missing key offensive contributors, the Jets might keep the store relatively close.
- My Prediction: Miami 24, New York 19
- My Pick: Jets +9
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Philadelphia emerges from a well-timed bye week closer to full strength and winners of 3-of-4. Washington just had their own four-game winning streak snapped at home last week. Interesting trend- the Football Team has gone under in seven of the last eight games and won two in a row straight up against the Eagles after losing the previous six. Philadelphia has actually lost for of their five games straight up at home this season, while Washington has won seven of their last 10 away contests.
UPDATE: this line has plummeted from 2.5 to 9.5 due to Washington potentially being down to a third-string QB. It would officially be a no-bet for me.
- My Prediction: Philadelphia 27, Washington 10
- My Pick: Eagles -6.5
Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills (-10.5)
The Bills are reeling, having lost 4-of-6 straight up and 2-5-1 ATS since Week 5. Carolina hasn’t been much better, dropping 4-of-5 games outright and versus the number. Before their recent struggles, Buffalo had dominated at home, while the Panthers have been a tough out on the road. Still, with Cam Newton’s struggles under center, it’s hard to see Carolina being able to mount enough offense to pull off the upset but their defense might be just good enough to keep the game close.
- My Prediction: Buffalo 27, Carolina 17
- My Pick: Panthers +10.5
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+10)
Another week of Mike Glennon under center doesn’t bode well for New York’s chances. In fact, there is talk that Jake Fromm could get some snaps in this game. Either way, the matchup for a Dallas defense that has been forcing turnovers is a good one. New York is 1-8 in their last nine overall, while Dallas has won 8-of-9 against New York outright and covered in seven of those victories.
- My Prediction: Dallas 30, New York 14
- My Pick: Cowboys -10
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
The Urban Meyer era is mercifully over, but mid-week firings don’t tend to be advantageous for NFL teams. However, with the entire roster reportedly against Meyer, this could be a rallying point for the Jaguars, who are actually favored against a Houston team that has been nearly as incompetent. Houston won outright as a home dog in Week 1 against the Jaguars, their fifth consecutive win over Jacksonville. But the Texans have been woeful during their three-game losing streak and are just 1-5 on the road this season while scoring single-digit points in four of those defeats.
- My Prediction: Jacksonville 23, Houston 13
- My Pick: Jaguars -3.5
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)
Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 in their last five home games but just 2-5 ATS at Heinz Field. The Titans lost two straight games after their six-game win streak got snapped at home by the lowly Texans, but managed to shut out Jacksonville before the Week 14 bye. Tennessee has won 15 of their last 20 away games but is just 1-4 in their last five trips north to Pittsburgh.
- My Prediction: Tennessee 24, Pittsburgh 23
- My Pick: Steelers +2.5
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+13)
Detroit looks like they’ll be missing their starting running back and tight end and Arizona will be without No. 1 WR DeAndre Hopkins and could also be short-handed in the backfield. Currently ties for the best record in football, nobody expects the 1-11-1 Lions to defeat the Cardinals, but Detroit has gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Still, the Cardinals are unbeaten on the road this season and should be able to win this game rather easily. The only question is, just how easily?
- My Prediction: Arizona 31, Detroit 20
- My Pick: Lions +13
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-10)
San Francisco has won and covered 4-of-5 overall but is only 2-4 ATS at home. Atlanta has actually played better on the road, boasting a 5-2 record away from Mercedes-Benz Stadium, although the schedule has been very favorable. Atlanta has yet to defeat a team with a winning record this season and is 3-12 in their last 15 trips to San Francisco.
- My Prediction: San Francisco 27, Atlanta 23
- My Pick: Falcons +10
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Although they’re favored in this game, the Bengals have had no luck winning in the Mile High City. Cincinnati is 1-9 in their last 10 games on the road against the Broncos and the Bengals have only outright won five of their last 25 road contests. Denver’s two-headed backfield will face a challenge from a Bengals’ stop unit that ranks 4th against the run, which leads me to think this will be a low-scoring affair. This game opened with the Bengals as favorites but has completely flipped.
- My Prediction: Denver 21, Cincinnati 20
- My Pick: Bengals +2.5
Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+5.5)
Uncertainty about the status of Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson has caused this line to shoot up in favor of the Packers. Losers of two straight games with Jackson under center, Baltimore hopes to stop the bleeding at home, where they’ve won 8-of-9. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be a tough task for the Ravens. No team has a better ATS record than Green Bay’s 11-1 mark. Interesting nugget- Lamar Jackson is 12-0 all-time against the NFC, but as the week has progressed, Jackson is looking less and less likely to play.
- My Prediction: Green Bay 26, Baltimore 22
- My Pick: Ravens +5.5
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Seattle has had problems with Sean McVay’s Rams and now potentially could be without their No. 1 wideout. LA has gone 12-4 at home dating back to 2019 and beaten the Rams five of the last six times they’ve faced each other in LA. Russell Wilson and company were able to end their skid against a hapless Houston squad last week but I don’t see any way they’re able to pull off another improbable win here.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 33, Seattle 20
- My Pick: Rams -7
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11.5)
It’s very surprising to see Sean Payton’s Saints listed as double-digit dogs, particularly against the Bucs. Payton’s Saints have won six out of the last seven games against Tampa, including a 36-27 victory at home back in Week 8. Of course, the rematch is at Raymond James, where Tom Brady and company have been absolutely hammering opponents. The Bucs have won and covered five straight at home and are 18-3 in their last 21 in front of the home crowd.
- My Prediction: Tampa Bay 34, New Orleans 24
- My Pick: Saints +11.5
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+6.5)
A new regime is in sight for the Bears who have lost seven of eight, including 4-of-5 at Soldier Field. Oddly, Chicago has gotten the better of Minnesota for years, especially at home. The Vikings have played nothing but close games all season and have a solid 6-1 mark ATS as visitors. Picking the Bears is, of course, unappealing, but another close NFC North battle should make for an entertaining Monday night game.
- My Prediction: Minnesota 27, Chicago 24
- My Pick: Bears +6.5
