NFL Pick 'Em Week 4
NFL Picks
Last week was, fortunately, about the opposite of Week 2. Overall, it was a winning wick picking games but it sure didn't look like it would be early on. While Week 2 started well and ended with a whimper, Week 3 looked horrible until the afternoon games started and I nailed nearly every contest. I was 4-1 on totals, so that also went quite well.
Hopefully, that momentum carries over into the fourth week of the 2021 season, but on initial glance, this is an awfully difficult slate to handicap. We'll still give it a whirl, even if the best decision in real life is to pull back on a difficult schedule of games.
Week Three Recap: 9-7 (4-1 totals)
2021 ATS Record: 25-21-1
Indianapolis at Miami (-2)
Both of these teams are off to disappointing starts. I keep thinking that Carson Wentz will rebound and start playing well, but it just isn't happening. Miami has faced a tougher schedule and is 2-1 ATS. Both teams have hit the under in 2-of-3, and down to an injured Wentz and second-string Jacoby Brissett, that's the way I would lean if I were making a play on this game.
- My Prediction: Miami 23 Indianapolis 17
- My Pick: Dolphins -2
Washington at Atlanta (+1.5)
Entering the season, Washington was thought to have one of the league's best defenses, but the Football Team has surrendered 20,29, and 43 points. Taylor Heinicke hasn't set the world on fire and the team is winless against the spread. The Falcons have also looked flat, particularly on offense, where Matt Ryan is not pressing the ball downfield and is off to a poor start overall. Perhaps things turn around for Ryan and the Falcons playing at home. The winner of this game gets to .500 while the loser will have a hard time staying in postseason contention. I'll take the home dogs in a battle of two underperforming squads.
- My Prediction: Atlanta 24 Washington 20
- My Pick: Falcons +1.5
Kansas City at Philadelphia (+7)
Unlike the Washington/Atlanta tilt, this intra-conference battle should have plenty of fireworks. The Chiefs have dropped two straight, allowing over 30 points in each game, and are 0-3 ATS. Philadelphia has also lost two consecutive games and failed to cover after being underdogs of 3 and 3.5. Kansas City has surrendered the most rushing yards (130) so far to quarterbacks, so look for Jalen Hurts to be able to rack up yards and points in a game that should be back-and-forth.
- My Prediction: Kansas City 31 Philadelphia 28
- My Pick: Eagles +7
Houston at Buffalo (-15.5)
This game opened up at a ridiculous Buffalo -17 but has dropped down as bettors wanted to take advantage of that huge line. While Houston has exceeded lowly expectations and covered in their first two games, the Texans aren't going to be able to slow down QB Josh Allen and are going to have problems moving the ball with Davis Mills making his first-ever road start. I like the home team here and was happy to see the line dip, but I wouldn't make a huge play on such a large spread.
- My Prediction: Buffalo 35 Houston 13
- My Pick: Bills -15.5
Detroit at Chicago (-3)
Hard to suggest laying points on the Bears after what we saw last week. Entering Week 4, we have no clue who Chicago will even have under center, which is a scary proposition when money is at stake. Andy Dalton probably gives the Bears the best shot to win, at least until Matt Nagy is relieved of his duties and a more flexible offensive play-caller realizes what he has in Justin Fields. Detroit is 2-1 ATS, while the Bears are 1-2. The Lions have also covered in two of their last three games in this series.
- My Prediction: Chicago 17 Detroit 16
- My Pick: Lions +3
Cleveland at Minnesota (+2.5)
Both teams are 2-1 against the number and have seen totals go over, over, under so far this season. The Vikings have covered as small dogs while the Browns covered as large favorites. I generally like getting points with home dogs, and in this case, it feels like the Vikings are a decent enough team to go that direction. I would feel better about that play if I knew RB Dalvin Cook was playing. I'm more interested in the under here, as sharps have jumped on that inflated total.
- My Prediction: Cleveland 24 Minnesota 23
- My Pick: Vikings +2.5, UNDER 51.5
New York Giants at New Orleans (-7.5)
Under Sean Payton, the Saints have been a tremendous home team and the Giants don't have the firepower to hang with the Saints in a shootout, particularly with New York potentially missing two of their top-3 wideouts. However, Jameis Winston is no Drew Brees and New Orleans has hit under in all three of their games while New York has been under in 2-of-3.
- My Prediction: New Orleans 21 New York 14
- My Pick: Giants +7.5, UNDER 42
Carolina at Dallas (-4.5)
The Panthers are a perfect 3-0 straight up, and 3-0 against the number. The under has also hit on all three of the Panthers' games, while the total has gone over in 2 of the Cowboys' three games. Dallas lost in Week 1 but has won back-to-back games straight up and against the spread. The is actually the first real challenge for a Carolina defense that has played extremely well. Carolina has won two straight in this series but the Cowboys have taken 7-of-10.
- My Prediction: Dallas 27 Carolina 23
- My Pick: Panthers +4.5
Tennessee at New York Jets (+7)
What was I saying about home dogs? Yeah, scratch that. The Jets have looked absolutely abysmal and while they may be an intriguing play here against a Titans team that is extremely thin at wide receiver, there's simply no way I would place a wager on New York at this juncture.
- My Prediction: Tennessee 21 New York Jets 13
- My Pick: Titans -7
Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-4)
The undefeated Rams have gone over in all three contests, while the Cardinals have scored 31-plus in every game. Los Angeles is also 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against the Cardinals, but the under is 3-2 in those contests. Should be a fun one, but I like the home team.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 34 Arizona 27
- My Pick: Rams -4
Seattle at San Francisco (-3)
Russell Wilson has never lost three consecutive games in his career, while Jimmy Garoppolo is 1-2 straight us versus Seattle. Both squads have opened the season 1-2 ATS. Seattle has won 7-of-10 head-to-head but the teams have split winning ATS every other game since 2018. If that trend continues, the Seahawks are due in their first matchup of 2021.
- My Prediction: Seattle 26 San Francisco 23
- My Pick: Seahawks +3
Baltimore at Denver (-1)
Denver is off to a blistering 3-0 start, but it is somewhat hollow. The Broncos have easily dispatched the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets, who are a combined 1-8 entering Week 4. Denver's impressive start has been due to solid QB play from Teddy Bridgewater and outstanding defense. The Broncos are 3-0 on under so far, but Baltimore's once-dominant defense has slipped a bit. I think the Ravens have a legitimate shot to pull the slight upset here, but with QB Lamar Jackson nursing a back injury, I'm going to lean on the home dogs and under.
- My Prediction: Denver 23 Baltimore 20
- My Pick: Broncos -1, UNDER 44.5
Pittsburgh at Green Bay (-6.5)
The Steelers are reeling and could be without T.J. Watt and have a ton of injuries at wide receiver. Pittsburgh won and covered in their opener but has dropped consecutive games straight up and ATS since. Greeb Bay is the opposite, losing their opener but winning two straight. Hard to bet on the Steelers traveling into Lambeau and stopping the bleeding, but they may be able to hang around long enough to keep the game competitive. Note, the under is 7-3 in Pittsburgh's last 10.
- My Prediction: Green Bay 24 Pittsburgh 20
- My Pick: Steelers +6.5
Tampa Bay at New England (+7)
The marquee matchup of Week 4, at least via the media, is Tom Brady's return to New England to take on Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Generally, I'd be keen on getting the Patriots and points at Gillette Stadium, but this game has got to mean a lot to Brady, particularly coming off of their first loss of the season. Both teams are 1-2 ATS but throwing out a unit on Brady to overcome a team whose offense has been rather sluggish seems like a decent play.
- My Prediction: Tampa Bay 31 New England 20
- My Pick: Buccaneers -7
Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
This will probably be a proverbial home game for the Raiders, who always draw more fans than the Chargers in LA. Interestingly, visitors have covered 57% of the spreads on Monday Night Football but is that applicable when the "away" game features a home environment? The Raiders are 3-1 ATS in the last four matchups with their AFC West foes, and the over has hit in three of the four.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 30 Las Vegas 28
- My Pick: Raiders +3
Thursday Night Pick:
- My Prediction: Cincinnati 24 Jacksonville 17
- My Pick: Jaguars +7.5
Jody Smith
Jody is a member of both the Pro Football Writer's of America (PFWA) and Fantasy Sports Writer's Association (FSWA) and has been covering the NFL and fantasy football for over a decade. Jody won FantasyPro's Most Accurate Expert contest and also garnered the FSTA's accuracy award in 2012. A Houston native, Jody has covered the Texans locally since 2016 for both digital and radio audiences. Past writing stops include CBS Sportsline, Gridiron Experts, Pro Football Focus, Fanball, FantasyPro's. Jody is also a frequent guest on SiriusXM and Houston radio and his work regularly appears in print on newsstands each summer.