NFL Pick ‘Em Week 5
I surely hope you faded me last week because that was brutal. When you go 5-11, you have to take accountability that your entire process was wrong, and not even close. This was not an issue of unlucky half-point losses or frustrating backdoor covers. This was just a horrendous job on my part.
The only solace I take is that there is a lesson here. Don’t bet on games that you’re unsure of. Just pick your two or three best games, and go with that. Otherwise, you end up reaching, or, even worse, embarrassing yourself by going 5-11. With that, I’m back at it again and will just try to get back on the plus side, then back to .500. But by all means, feel free to simply fade me, I would.
2021 season-to-date: 30-32-1
New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-3) from London
The fact that this game is in London is enough for me to approach with caution. The Jets finally looked competent and got their first victory last week, while Atlanta scored 30 points but flew to London extremely thin at wide receiver. Both teams are 1-3 ATS and the under has hit in 5-of-8 total games. Throw in the international flight and playing in an unfamiliar environment, and that’s where I’d lean.
- My Prediction: New York 20 Atlanta 17
- My Pick: Jets +3, UNDER 45
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-9.5)
This game opened with Minnesota being favored by a touchdown but has shot up close to 10 thanks to breaking news that Detroit will be missing several members of the starting offensive line. Still, are the Vikings capable of taking advantage of this? Both squads are 2-2 ATS but Minnesota has won seven straight head-to-head and 5-of-6 against the spread in this NFC North rivalry.
- My Prediction: Minnesota 30 Detroit 20
- My Pick: Vikings -9.5
New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+9)
The Patriots have no business being 9-point road favorites, but there’s no way I would place a real bet on Houston’s offense after last week. Instead, look to the under as both teams have struggled to move the ball consistently and Bil Belichick has a long track record of shutting down rookie signal-callers. New England’s banged-up O-line should lead to a conservative game plan and I’m not expecting too many highlights here.
- My Prediction: New England 20 Houston 10
- My Pick: Patriots -9 UNDER 39.5
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5)
Tennessee gave the Jets their first victory last week, now can they drop another game to a winless squad? After the week that Urban Meyer has, it sounds like he’s lost that locker room, and it will be hard to get his players to invest enough to fight for him. Tennessee has won 9-of-11 in this series and should get a boost with WR A.J. Brown returning to practice.
- My Prediction: Tennessee 27 Jacksonville 20
- My Pick: Titans -4.5
New Orleans Saints at Washington Football Team (+2.5)
The Saints could be missing a couple of starters on their offensive line and that doesn’t bode well for an offense that has already been struggling and is about to face a Washington team that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. New Orleans has been one of the league’s most erratic teams so far and the last time the Saints travel to the nation’s capital, they were pummeled 47-14.
- My Prediction: Washington 26 New Orleans 23
- My Pick: Football Team +2.5
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)
Betting on road dogs this high, especially when the temperatures are in the 80s, has been a profitable endeavor. As good as Tampa Bay has been, they’re only 1-3 against the spread, while Miami has alternated wins and losses versus the number. This is only the fifth meeting between these two Florida teams since 2005, and Tampa has won three of the previous four. I expect that to be four out of five but won’t be picking the Buccaneers to cover a double-digit spread.
- My Prediction: Tampa Bay 30, Miami 23
- My Pick: Dolphins +10
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
The Bengals should get WR Tee Higgins back but are expected to be without RB Joe Mixon. Green Bay’s biggest concern is in the secondary, where they’ll be without No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander. The Packers, like several other teams, also have a depleted O-line. This is a battle of 3-1 teams, with Joe Burrow having the chance to win a huge game and really establish this up-and-coming Cincinnati squad as legitimate playoff contenders in Year Two. This game feels like it should be close, so I’m going to lean on the home team.
- My Prediction: Cincinnati 28 Green Bay 27
- My Pick: Bengals +3
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3)
The Eagles are not as good as Carolina, even as the Panthers come off their first loss of the season. This seems like an easy play to pick the Panthers, but this line has trap written all over it.
- My Prediction: Panthers 21 Eagles 20
- My Pick: Eagles +3
Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
Denver is another team dealing with an injury-ravaged offensive line, and to make matters worse, QB Teddy Bridgewater is in the league’s concussion protocol and may not even start this game. If Drew Lock ends up starting, I would lead Pittsburgh, but the way the Steelers have been playing, that’s not a confident pick. Best play here is to avoid this one altogether and take a stab on the under.
- My Prediction: Pittsburgh 21 Denver 17
- My Pick: Steelers -1, UNDER 39.5
Chicago Bears at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5)
The Justin Fields era has officially begun, but it opens without RB David Montgomery. While Damien Williams is a solid fill-in, Williams himself is dealing with a thigh bruise. In addition to having a bad offensive line, the Raiders’ secondary is banned up and their backfield has dealt with injuries. Chicago’s pass rush should be able to get to Derek Carr and I expected Bill Lazor to test this secondary with plenty of deep balls. Both teams are 2-2 ATS and the Raiders have won two of the last three matchups straight up, covering their most recent meeting and winning outright after being 6.5-point underdogs. Still, I like the Bears in this one, but not enough to make a big play.
- My Prediction: Chicago 23 Las Vegas 20
- My Pick: Bears +5.5
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-2)
In this battle of AFC playoff contenders, the Chargers are listed s slight favorites but Vegas is telling us that they think the Browns are the better team. Home teams generally get three points, but no team has less of a real home-field advantage than the Chargers. These teams are close, but I think the biggest edge is at quarterback, where Justin Herbert is far better than Baker Mayfield, who is also playing with an injured shoulder. Los Angeles has been a poor team covering at home but I think they edge out a hard-fought victory here.
- My Prediction: Los Angeles 24, Cleveland 21
- My Pick: Chargers -2
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-5)
This week’s schedule has several appealing games, including this AFC West showdown. It’s still unknown who will open under center for San Francisco, but it’s starting to look like Trey Lance will make his first NFL start while Jimmy Garoppolo deals with a calf injury. Lance played well enough in the second half last week and should be able to keep pace in what should be a high-scoring back-and-forth battle.
- My Prediction: Arizona 33, San Francisco 30
- My Pick: 49ers +5
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7)
Dallas is 12-4 over New York in their last 16 meetings and enters this game a perfect 4-0 against the spread in 2021. New York covered both of their games in this series last season, but the Giants are coming off of an emotional overtime road win and are having some injury issues. A backdoor cover could be in play here, but I think Dallas is the better team and should win fairly easily.
- My Prediction: Dallas 31 New York 23
- My Pick: Cowboys -7
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Another premier game, this very well could be a preview of the AFC Championship, and right now, Vegas says the Bills are the better team. Both teams are 18-5 overall since the beginning of the 2020 season and have powerful offenses. Buffalo’s defense is the biggest edge, as Kansas City has struggled to slow down their opponents. Still, betting on Patrick Mahomes at home has been a profitable endeavor and I think the Chiefs find a way to win.
- My Prediction: Kansas City 31 Buffalo 27
- My Pick: Chiefs -2.5
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Another matchup with both teams entering 2-2 ATS, with the Colts coming off of their first win of the season. Indianapolis has struggled to score points against the Ravens. The Colts haven’t topped 20 points against the Ravens since 2008, seven straight games with 20 or fewer points scored and Baltimore holding a 5-2 record straight up. While this isn’t the same Ravens’ defense, I don’t think Indy has shown the offensive ability to keep up with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, but they should keep if fairly close.
- My Prediction: Baltimore 24, Indianapolis 20
- My Pick: Colts +6.5
Thursday Night Pick:
Seahawks +2.5
