NFL Pick’em: Week 12

NFL Pick'em: Week 11

For this article, we dig through every game of the Sunday slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings with some advanced matchup strength vs. weakness notes provided by Inside Edge. Let’s get to the action for Week 12.

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New York Giants (-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 44)

The Giants are averaging 19.5 PPG overall this season and 24.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Bengals have allowed 27 PPG this season.
The Bengals are averaging 21.3 PPG overall this season but just 16.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Giants have allowed 23.6 PPG this season.
The home team is 8-0 in the last eight games between these teams dating back to 1985.
The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight games between these teams, but the UNDER has hit in each of the last two games.
The UNDER is 7-3 for the Giants this season — tied for most in the league.
The Giants are 7-3 ATS this season.
The Bengals are 6-4 ATS this season.
The Giants have covered the spread in each of their last four games.
The Giants have thrown the ball 62.0% of the time in the red zone this season — third-highest in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 19 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
The Bengals have thrown for 20+ yards on 23 of 415 attempts this season — tied for worst in NFL. The Giants allowed 20+ yards on 7.0% of attempts this season — tied for second-best in NFL.
The Bengals defense has allowed 39 receptions for 20+ yards this season — third-most in NFL.
The Bengals are averaging 3.6 yards per carry this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Giants have allowed 4.1 yards per carry to RBs this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 25-19 in favor of the Giants.
The public likes the Giants to win and cover with the under hitting.

This game got a whole lot muddier from a betting perspective when the Bengals saw Joe Burrow go down for the season last week. The Bengals will now be turning to Brandon Allen to take over under center. They’ll be facing a Giants team that is coming off back-to-back wins against similarly-weak NFC East opponents Washington and Philly. The Giants haven’t been able to get a win against any team outside of their terrible division yet this season.

On offense, it is tough to really know what to expect from the Bengals now without Burrow. They were one of the most voluminous offenses in the league when it came to passing volume with Burrow and averaged 70 offensive plays per game compared to just 61.4 for NYG. Neither team has moved the ball particularly well between the 20s, but the Giants’ 40.8% third-down conversion rate is somehow better than Cincy’s 36.7% mark. The Bengals have been slightly more effective in the red zone converting 52.9% of RZ drives into a score compared to 48% for the Giants.

Neither defense has been exceptional this season, but the Giants have been the better unit between the two. They’ve allowed fewer points and total yards per game than the Bengals. They’ve also allowed a lower third-down conversion rating and significantly lower RZ scoring percentage at 54% compared to a sky-high 71% for the Bengals.

It’s not going to feel good betting on this game, but without Burrow, the Giants could be looking at their first win outside of their division this season though I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bengals cover.

Final Prediction: Giants win 26-17

Picks: Giants -6, Under 44

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) (O/U 51)

The Panthers are averaging 23 PPG this season.
The Vikings have allowed 27.8 PPG overall this season and 33 PPG at home.
The Vikings are averaging 26.4 PPG overall this season and 29.8 PPG at home.
The Panthers have allowed 24.7 PPG this season.
The OVER is 7-3 for the Vikings this season.
Vikings RBs have averaged 2.7 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed 3.0 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — worst in NFL.
The Panthers have gone three and out on 9% of their drives this season — best in NFL. Vikings have forced three and outs on 12% of opponent drives this season — second-worst in NFL.
The Panthers have run 52.0% of their offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — fourth-best in NFL. Vikings have allowed their opponents to run 54.0% of plays in their territory this season — second-worst in the NFL.
The Panthers have scored on 47% of their drives this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Vikings defense has allowed scores on 49% of opponent drives this season — tied for worst in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 27.2-23.8 in favor of the Vikings.
The public is split between a winner but expects the Vikings to cover with the OVER hitting.

The Panthers are coming off a big win last week, shutting down the Lions 20-0. XFL superstar P.J. Walker filled in admirably for Teddy Bridgewater, but Teddy is expected to be back this week. Before last week, the Panthers were on a serious skid, having lost five-straight.

The Vikings felt like a lock last week against a Dallas team that hadn’t looked like they could do anything right as of late. Dallas wound up upsetting the Vikes 31-28 despite being full-TD underdogs coming into the game. Before last week, the Vikings had won three straight against Chicago, Detroit, and a big win against the Packers. They’ve gotten crushed at home a few times allowing at least 40 points to both the Packers and Falcons earlier this season.

The offensive stats show a pretty close matchup between these teams. Overall, the Vikings have been a stronger offense, scoring more points and accumulating more total yards per game, helped by their potent rushing attack. Neither team has moved the chains particularly well, being below 50% in third-down conversion rate. The Vikings have been one of the best teams in the red zone this season, however, converting 78% of their RZ drives into a score compared to just 59% for Carolina.

On defense, the Panthers have been slightly better this season when it comes to total points and yards allowed to their opponents. However, the Vikings have been stout on third downs, allowing conversions on just 36% of opponent drives. They’ve also allowed a lower opponent RZ scoring percentage.

The Vikes undoubtedly lost the trust of many with their bomb in Dallas last week, and let’s be honest, you never really have a lot of faith betting on Kirk Cousins and the Vikes in general. I think that performance is dragging down their expectations this week, though, and we see them bounce back against what is still a pretty weak Panthers offense.

Final Prediction: Vikings win 26-23

Picks: Panthers +3.5, Under 51

Las Vegas Raiders (-3) at Atlanta Falcons (O/U 54)

The Raiders are averaging 28.6 PPG overall this season and 33 PPG over their last three games.
The Falcons have allowed 27.5 PPG this season.
The Falcons are averaging 25.2 PPG this season.
The Raiders have allowed 27.6 PPG this season.
The Raiders are 7-3 ATS this season — tied for second-best in the NFL.
The OVER is 7-2-1 for the Raiders this season — tied for most in the NFL.
The Falcons have won each of their last four games against the Raiders.
The Falcons have thrown for 3,000 passing yards in 10 games (300.0 YPG) this season — third-best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 273.7 passing yards per game this season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Raiders’ defense has allowed scores on 49% of opponent drives this season — tied for worst in NFL.
Raiders’ WRs have gained 1,356 yards on 87 receptions (15.6 YPR) this season — best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed 14.6 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — worst in NFL.
Matt Ryan (ATL) has averaged 8.6 yards per attempt when under pressure this season — best of 35 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 5.3
Derek Carr (LV) has 3 interceptions on 314 attempts this season — 2nd-best of 27 qualified NFL QBs.
Vegas has an implied total of 28.5-25.5 in favor of the Raiders.
The public likes the Raiders to win and cover with the OVER hitting.

The Raiders are coming off one of the most impressive losses of the season as they fought hard against the Chiefs for the second time this season. Before that, the Raiders had won three-straight against the Browns, Chargers, and Broncos and scored over 30 points in each of their last two games. To say they have been an improved team this season would be a huge understatement.

The same couldn’t be said for the Falcons, who are 3-7 on the season. They looked like they had a solid chance to upset the Saints last week without Drew Brees, but the Falcons never had a chance and lost 9-24. It was their worst offensive output of the season and a bit of a surprise after winning three of their last four before that.

The Falcons haven’t lost this season without putting up decent volume on offense in most cases. They’ve averaged more total yards per game than the Raiders this season and run more plays per game. However, the Raiders have been more efficient, converting 51.6% of third downs compared to just 40% for the Falcons. The Raiders have also converted 61.5% of red-zone drives into a score compared to just 51.4% for Atlanta.

Neither defense has been excellent here this season but are matched virtually to the point when it comes to points allowed. The Falcons have given up more volume on defense and have also allowed their opponents to score on 75.8% of RZ drives compared to 65.9% for the Raiders.

The recent form gives us the best indicator of what we should expect for this one. The Raiders have it, and the Falcons don’t. It’s as simple as that. I don’t have enough confidence in the Falcons to support the over hitting with such a high implied total.

Final Prediction: Raiders win 28-24

Picks: Raiders -3, Under 54

Arizona Cardinals (-2) at New England Patriots (O/U 49.5)

The Cardinals are averaging 28.7 PPG this season.
The Patriots have allowed 23.8 PPG overall this season but just 19.8 PPG at home.
The Patriots are averaging 20.9 PPG overall this season and 24.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Cardinals have allowed 23.8 PPG overall this season and 30.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Patriots are 6-3 in their last nine games against the Cardinals dating back to 1990.
The winner straight-up has also covered the spread in each of the nine games between these teams.
The UNDER is 6-3 in the last nine games between these teams.
The UNDER is 7-3 for the Cardinals this season.
The UNDER is 6-4 for the Patriots this season.
The Cardinals have been successful on 48.0% of plays they have run this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed their opponents to be successful on 51.0% of plays this season — tied for worst in NFL.
The Cardinals have 4 TDs that were 20+ yards this season — most in NFL.
The Patriots defense has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 36 of 282 attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 9%
The Cardinals defense have allowed 58 broken tackles this season — most in NFL.
Cam Newton (NE) has thrown 4 touchdowns on 170 completions this season — worst Pass Completions Per TD rate of 27 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 13.6
Patriots RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 12.0% of 226 carries this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed 10+ yards on 13.0% of carries to RBs this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 25.8-23.8 in favor of the Cardinals.
The public likes the Cardinals to win and cover with the under hitting.

The Cardinals have continued to play some tough football every week this season. They fell victim to the Seahawks last week, losing 21-28 despite getting the better of Seattle earlier this season. The Cards have now dropped two of their last three, with their only win during that span coming thanks to the last-minute Hail Mary caught by DeAndre Hopkins against the Bills. This is probably the best third-place team in the league right now.

The Pats are coming off a road loss of their own, dropping a close one against the Texans last week 20-27. Before that, the Pats won in unconvincing fashion against the Jets and then impressed against the Ravens. They’re nothing like the Patriots of old but can still pull a rabbit out of their helmets every so often.

Comparing offensive stats between these teams heavily favors the Cards in pretty much every category. They’ve done exceptionally well in the red zone converting 74.3% of RZ drives into a score compared to 56% for the Pats. On defense, we see a virtually-identical matchup between these teams. We see a slight edge in favor of the Cards in both their lower third-down conversion allowed to opponents and a lower red-zone scoring percentage allowed to opponents.

The trends scream the under in this matchup, which has dragged the total below 50 points. With identical matchups on defense, it’s hard not to like the Cardinals’ more-explosive potential on offense, and the total has probably gotten bet down lower than it should be.

Final Prediction: Cardinals win 27-24

Picks: Cardinals -2, Over 49.5

Miami Dolphins (-7) at New York Jets (O/U 44)

The Dolphins are averaging 26.4 PPG this season.
The Jets have allowed 30.2 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
The Jets are averaging 14.9 PPG overall this season (worst in the NFL) and 21.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Dolphins have allowed 20.2 PPG this season — fourth-fewest in the NFL.
The Dolphins are 7-3 in their last 10 games against the Jets.
The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Jets.
The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS this season.
The Jets are 3-7 ATS this season.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five games between these teams.
The home team has won each of the last four games between these teams.
The Dolphins have run successful plays on 41.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — tied for third-best in NFL. The Jets have pressured opposing QBs on 20.0% of passing plays this season — tied for third-worst in NFL.
The Jets have a third-down conversion rate of 32.0% this season — tied for worst in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 34.0% this season — tied for best in NFL.
The Jets have scored on 27% of their drives this season — worst in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed scores on 29% of opponent drives this season — tied for second-best in NFL.
The Dolphins are averaging 3.4 yards per carry this season — worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed 4.1 yards per carry to RBs this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL.
Dolphins RBs have averaged 1.7 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed 1.8 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 25.5-18.5 in favor of the Dolphins.
The public likes the Dolphins to win and cover with the under hitting.

The Jets are the worst offense in the league while allowing the second-most points per game to their opponents. That’s always a recipe for disaster. This is the second meeting between these teams this season. In their first meeting, the Dolphins won 24-0. However, the Jets have actually shown some life in the last two weeks, scoring 27 and 28 points in their last two games, respectively. It still hasn’t resulted in a win, but you have to think they’re able to keep things closer against the Fins this week, who couldn’t beat the Broncos last week.

Final Prediction: Dolphins win 26-20

Picks: Jets +7, Over 44

Cleveland Browns (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 49.5)

The Browns are averaging 23.8 PPG overall this season but just 12.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Jaguars have allowed 29.8 PPG this season — third-most in the NFL.
The Jaguars are averaging 20.2 PPG overall this season but just 16 PPG over their last three games.
The Browns have allowed 26.1 PPG overall this season but just 13.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Jaguars have won four of their last five games against the Browns.
The winner straight-up has also covered the spread in each of the last 13 games between these teams dating back to 2000.
The UNDER is 6-4 for both of these teams this season.
The Jaguars have thrown the ball 60.0% of the time in the red zone this season — tied for fourth-highest in NFL. The Browns have allowed 15 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-most in NFL.
The Browns have rushed for 1,584 yards this season — third-most in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 1,312 yards rushing this season — ninth-most in NFL.
Nick Chubb (CLE) has rushed for 10+ yards on 20 of his 96 carries this season — best of 34 qualified NFL RBs; League Avg: 11%
19% of the plays run against the Browns have been in the red zone this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%
The Jaguars defense has allowed scores on 49% of opponent drives this season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%
Baker Mayfield (CLE) has averaged 185.0 passing yards per game this season — worst of 26 qualified NFL QBs; League Avg: 208.0
Vegas has an implied total of 27.8-21.8 in favor of the Browns.
The public likes the Browns to win and cover with the under hitting.

Both of these teams would love an opportunity to bust out here, having underwhelmed lately. The Browns have won two of their last three, but they’ve only put up offensive totals of 6 points, 10 points, and 22 points over that span. Their defense has supported them as of late, holding each of their last three opponents to 17 points or fewer.

The Jags expectedly struggled last week, hitting a season-low scoring just three points against the Steelers. My belief in the possibility of the Steelers overlooking the Jags with the Ravens on tap for this week was shot to hell. The Jags still haven’t been able to get into the win column since back in Week 1 and may not get there for the remainder of the season with no easy matchups remaining.

The offensive stats mostly favor the Browns in this matchup led by one of the league’s best rushing attacks. Their passing game has been incredibly inept this season, and they’re averaging just 197 passing yards per game. The Jags have a slight advantage with a higher third-down conversion rate this season. On defense, we see more in favor of the Browns and especially lately. With the Jags trending down each of the last four weeks and the Browns trending up, this feels like a pretty cut and dry matchup to decipher.

Final Prediction: Browns win 24-17

Picks: Browns -6, Under 49.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5) (O/U 53)

The Chargers are averaging 26 PPG this season.
The Bills have allowed 26.5 PPG this season.
The Bills are averaging 27.2 PPG overall this season and 32.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Chargers have allowed 27.3 PPG this season.
The Chargers have won and covered the spread in each of their last four games against the Bills.
The OVER is 7-2-1 for the Bills this season — tied for most in the NFL.
The OVER is 7-3 for the Chargers this season — tied for second-most in the NFL.
Bills RBs have rushed for 10 or more yards on 12.0% of 168 carries this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 10+ yards on 14.0% of carries to RBs this season — tied for second-worst in NFL.
Josh Allen (BUF) has thrown 9 TD passes against the blitz this season — tied for second-most among NFL QBs.
Justin Herbert (LAC) has thrown 9 TD passes against the blitz this season — tied for second-most among NFL QBs.
The Bills have scored on 49% of their drives this season — third-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%
The Bills have run 64% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 53%
Vegas has an implied total of 29.2-23.8 in favor of the Bills.
The public likes the Bills to win but the Chargers to cover with the over hitting.

The Chargers ended a three-game skid last week, beating the Jets 34-28. It was the second-highest scoring output we have seen from the Chargers this season. They have remained a tough team to beat each week, playing games close, yet they are still sitting at just 3-7 on the season. From a betting perspective, we have seen the over hit in each of their last seven games, but just one of those had an implied total above 50 points coming into it.

The Bills are looking to shake off their loss to the Cardinals after that instant classic Hail Mary sealed the deal for them in their last game. Before that, they were riding a three-game winning streak and recently scored a season-high 44 points against Seattle.

The offensive stats are very close when comparing these two teams this season. The Bills have scored slightly more points per game, but the Chargers offer more volume on offense, averaging right at 400 total yards per game. The Bills get the edge in efficiency, having a higher third-down conversion rate and a red-zone scoring percentage.

The tides turn a little on defense. Though the Chargers have allowed slightly more points per game to their opponents, they have allowed fewer total yards on average. They have also allowed a lower third-down conversion rate and red-zone scoring percentage to their opponents, which really evens things out.

These teams’ records are far from the same this season, but the stats show a very close game on paper. I think this really comes down to how we have seen these teams performing recently on the field. The Bills have simply found more ways to get wins this season, while the Chargers just seem to be lacking that one little thing to take them from good to great.

Final Prediction: Bills win 27-24

Picks: Chargers +5.5, Under 53

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3) (O/U 51.5)

The Titans are averaging 27.9 PPG overall this season but just 23.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Colts have allowed 20.8 PPG this season.
The Colts are averaging 27.6 PPG this season.
The Titans have allowed 25.9 PPG this season.
The OVER is 7-2-1 for the Titans this season — tied for most in the NFL.
The Colts have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 15% of pass attempts this season — tied for best in NFL. The Titans have pressured opposing QBs on 17.0% of passing plays this season — worst in NFL.
The Colts have run 17.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for third-best in NFL. Titans have allowed their opponent to run 17.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for second-worst in NFL.
The Titans defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 54% this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%
Titans RBs have averaged 2.9 yards after contact per carry this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 2.1
The Colts defense has allowed rushes of 10+ yards on just 18 of 249 carries this season — second-best in NFL; League Avg: 12%
Vegas has an implied total of 27.2-24.2 in favor of the Colts.
The public likes the Colts to win but the Titans to cover with the under hitting.

We get a quick rematch from Week 10’s matchup that saw these two teams face each other. The Colts got the better of the Titans in that matchup, winning 34-17 despite being on the road. The road team has actually performed best in matchups between these two teams as of late, having won each of the last four games.

The Titans are coming off a win against the Ravens last week but still haven’t looked quite right this season. Their loss against Indy before was a big hit against them as well as losses against the Steelers and the Bengals. Meanwhile, the Colts keep finding ways to win, having knocked off the Packers last week 34-31.

Despite the last matchup between these teams being a fairly lopsided affair, the numbers still show us a close matchup on paper. The Titans have actually been the more efficient offense this season, recording a higher third-down conversion rate than Indy. The Titans have been dramatically better in the red zone as well, converting 71.8% of RZ drives into a score compared to just 55.3% for the Colts.

I still don’t trust the Titans at all in this one, and with their poor recent form already including a loss to the Colts in it, I don’t really know why you would expect a much different outcome here.

Final Prediction: Colts win 26-20

Picks: Colts -3, Under 51.5

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) (O/U 45)

The 49ers are averaging 23.8 PPG overall this season but just 19 PPG over their last three games.
The Rams have allowed just 19.2 PPG this season — second-fewest in the NFL.
The Rams are averaging 24.3 PPG this season.
The 49ers have allowed 23.4 PPG overall this season and 32.7 PPG over their last three games.
The UNDER is 7-3 for the Rams this season — tied for most in the NFL.
49ers WRs have 132.7 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Rams have averaged 129.3 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — best in NFL.
The 49ers defense has allowed a passer rating of 127.8 since Week 8 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 93.4
The 49ers are averaging 2.7 yards per carry since Week 8 — worst in NFL. The Rams have allowed 2.8 yards per carry to RBs since Week 8 — best in NFL.
The Rams defense has tackled opponents for a loss on just 11 of 229 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) this season. — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%
Vegas has an implied total of 25.8-19.2 in favor of the Rams.
The public likes the Rams to win and cover with the under hitting.

We get our second matchup of the season between these two division rivals as well. The 49ers got the better of the Rams in their first matchup, winning 24-16 at home. Now they’ll travel and try and repeat that success on the road. The Niners don’t have a solid recent form on their side, currently having lost each of their last three games while seeing their offensive output trend down in each game during that span as well. They hit a new season-low in their last outing, putting up just 13 points against the Saints.

The Rams find themselves in first place in the heated NFC West. They have strung together back-to-back wins against tough teams in the Seahawks and Bucs, showing that they are the real deal this season.

The numbers support the Rams being a fairly heavy favorite here in all aspects of offensive production and efficiency. The same goes for the defensive side of the ball, where the Rams have not just been one of the most improved units this season, but one of the best in the league in general. Despite having already lost to SF earlier this season, I just don’t see a chance of that repeating itself again this time around.

Final Prediction: Rams win 27-20

Picks: Rams -6.5, Over 45

New Orleans Saints (-7) at Denver Broncos (O/U 42.5)

The Saints are averaging 29.5 PPG this season — fifth-most in the NFL.
The Broncos have allowed 26.7 PPG this season.
The Broncos are averaging 20.6 PPG this season.
The Saints have allowed 22.2 PPG overall this season but just 8.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Broncos have won each of their last five games against the Saints.
The OVER is 7-3 for the Saints this season — tied for second-most in the NFL.
The Broncos have run 40.0% of their offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. Saints have allowed their opponents to run 39.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for best in NFL.
The Broncos have just 6 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for third-fewest in NFL. The Saints have allowed just 4 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — tied for fewest in NFL.
The Broncos have run successful plays on 38.0% of rush attempts this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. Saints have allowed successful plays on 35.0% of rush attempts this season — third-best in NFL.
Broncos QBs have a 28.9 passer rating when scrambling this season — fifth-worst in NFL. The Saints have allowed a passer rating of 37.8 when the opposing QB was scrambling this season — fifth-best in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 24.8-17.8 in favor of the Saints.
The public likes the Saints to win and cover with the over hitting.

Drew Brees, who? The Saints trucked the Falcons 24-9 last week without Brees under center and have been on an absolute tear as of late. They’ve only allowed one TD in their last three games and won seven straight, leading to an 8-2 record and first place in the NFC South.

The Broncos get credit for somehow pulling off a win against the Dolphins last week, but they have otherwise been very underwhelming this season.

The stats all dramatically favor the Saints in this matchup. We see a slight edge shift towards the Broncos on defense when it comes to efficiency. They have allowed their opponents to convert just 38.7% of third downs compared to 41.5% for the Saints. The Broncos have also been more stingy in the red zone, allowing scores on just 48.7% of those drives compared to a massive 72.4% for the Saints.

Despite those small advantages on defense, these teams are very far away from each other in their potential range of outcomes this season. This should be an easy victory for the Saints, especially how their defense has played as of late.

Final Prediction: Saints win 28-17

Picks: Saints -7, Over 42.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 56)

The Chiefs are averaging 32.1 PPG this season — most in the NFL.
The Bucs have allowed 23 PPG overall this season but 29.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Bucs are averaging 29.1 PPG this season.
The Chiefs have allowed 21.4 PPG this season.
The OVER is 7-4 for the Bucs this season.
Tyreek Hill (KC) has scored 11 TDs this season — tied for most among NFL WRs.
Tom Brady (TB) has thrown 22 TD passes in the red zone this season — most among NFL QBs.
Patrick Mahomes (KC) has not been intercepted when under pressure this season — tied for best of 35 qualified NFL QBs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers RBs have dropped 15 balls this season — most in NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers RBs have fumbled 4 times this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
Only 11% of the plays run against the Chiefs have been in the red zone this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 15%
The Buccaneers have gone three and out 10 times in the 1st quarter this season — tied for second-most in NFL.
Buccaneers QBs have a 45.0 passer rating when their QB was under pressure this season — ninth-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed a passer rating of 9.4 when the opposing QB was under pressure this season — best in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 29.5-26.5 in favor of the Chiefs.
The public likes the Chiefs to win and cover with the over hitting.

This should easily be one of the most exciting games on the slate for Sunday as we’ll get to watch Patrick Mahomes face off against Tom Brady. The Bucs are coming off a hard-fought loss against the Rams last week with Brady’s infamous post-game handshake snub took most of the press. The Bucs have now lost two of their last three, with that disappointing 3-38 loss to the Saints being in that mix.

The Chiefs found redemption against the one team that beat them this season by taking down the Raiders 35-31 last week. The game didn’t come easily, though, as it looked for most of the night like the Raiders were going to upset the Chiefs for the second time this season. The Raiders clearly have something figured out with the Chiefs team, but ultimately they still couldn’t hold them under 30 points in either of those games.

Both offenses here trade blows back and forth in the stat columns by being two of the league’s biggest powerhouses. The Chiefs have the edge in most cases, but the Bucs have been better at converting red-zone drives into a score this season.

On defense, the Chiefs have allowed less volume to their opponents this season, but the Bucs have been better at slowing offenses in general. The Bucs have allowed their opponents to run fewer plays per game than the Chiefs, they’ve held opponents to a lower third-down conversion rate, and they’ve allowed opponents to score less frequently in the red zone.

Despite the defensive advantages the Bucs may have in these categories, slowing Mahomes and the Chiefs is simply a different animal. With the ups and downs we have seen from the Bucs this season, you just can’t trust them to upset or even cover here with such a small spread.

Final Prediction: Chiefs win 31-26

Picks: Chiefs -3, Over 56

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5) (O/U 45)

The Bears are averaging 19.1 PPG this season — second-fewest in the NFL.
The Packers have allowed 25.8 PPG this season.
The Packers are averaging 30.8 PPG this season — third-most in the NFL.
The Bears have allowed 20.9 PPG this season.
The Packers are 7-1 in their last eight games against the Bears.
The Bears have a third-down conversion rate of 32.0% this season — tied for worst in NFL. The Packers defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 39.0% this season — tied for eighth-best in NFL.
Chicago Bears RBs have rushed for one TD on 149 carries this season — worst Carries Per TD rate in NFL in NFL; League Avg: 29.8
Chicago Bears RBs have averaged 1.3 yards before contact per carry this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.1
The Packers defense has tackled opponents for a loss on just 17 of 253 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) this season. — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%
The Packers have thrown for 12 TDs since Week 8 — most in NFL.
The Bears have scored on 31% of their drives this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%
Bears QBs have a 93.1 passer rating when scrambling this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Packers have allowed a passer rating of 95.5 when the opposing QB was scrambling this season — second-worst in NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 26.2-18.8 in favor of the Packers.
The public likes the Packers to win and cover with the under hitting.

This is one of the great rivalries in all of the NFL, even though the Bears have been an absolute mess for a while and have often gotten completely dominated by the Packers. The Bears are coming into this, still confused about which terrible QB they want to start. They’ve dropped four straight games now and seen their offensive output trend down in each of their last three. They managed just 13 points against the Vikings most recently.

The Packers are coming off a game they would probably like to have back, having lost to the Colts 31-34. They have been mostly solid this season with only one stinker on their resume where they put up just 10 points against the Bucs. The Colts boast one of the top defenses in the league, so the fact that the Pack was able to push 30 points against them is still a great sign.

The offensive stats overwhelmingly support the Packers in pretty much all facets here. If the Bears have any chance of keeping this game close, it’s going to be on the back of their defense, which has still been a stout unit. This is where we see the momentum shift in this matchup as the Packers have shown some issues with their defense this season.

When you break it all down, the Bears simply don’t have what it takes this season to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, even if the defense keeps them in the game.

Final Prediction: Packers win 26-17

Picks: Packers -7.5, Under 45

NFL Pick’em: Week 12