NFL Pick’em Week 14

NFL Picks

NFL Pick'em Week 14

For this article, we dig through every game of the Sunday slate to provide the top matchup notes worth knowing with a brief overview and picks for each game. Betting trends are found thanks to Team Rankings with some advanced matchup strength vs. weakness notes provided by Inside Edge. Let’s get to the action for NFL Pick’em Week 14.

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Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (-4) (O/U 46.5)

The Broncos are averaging 18.8 PPG overall this season (second-fewest) and just 13 PPG over their last three games.
The Panthers have allowed 25 PPG this season.
The Panthers are averaging 23.3 PPG this season.
The Broncos have allowed 26.7 PPG overall this season but just 22 PPG over their last three games.
The Broncos are 5-1 straight-up against the Panthers dating back to 1997.
Both teams are 7-5 ATS this season.
The UNDER is 7-5 for the Broncos this season.
The public likes the Panthers to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Panthers have averaged 1.2 passing TDs per game this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed 1.3 passing touchdowns per game this season — tied for fourth-best in NFL.
The Panthers have thrown the ball 38.0% of the time in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-lowest in NFL. The Broncos have allowed 10 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — third-fewest in NFL.
Broncos QBs have a 19.3 passer rating when scrambling this season — second-worst in NFL. The Panthers have allowed a passer rating of 25.9 when the opposing QB was scrambling this season — second-best in NFL.

The Panthers are coming into this matchup fresh off a bye week while the Broncos are coming off a loss against the Chiefs in a game they played a lot closer than most had anticipated. Despite playing decent last week, the Broncos have lost two in a row and four of their last five games. We have seen the under hit in each of the last four games for the Broncos.

The Panthers have had a similar streak of bad luck before their bye. They’ve lost six of their last seven games, with their only win during that span coming against a terrible Lions team. Despite these losses, the Panthers nearly had a win against the Vikings in their last game, losing 27-28, and played the Chiefs fairly close recently as well, losing 31-33.

When comparing stats here, the Panthers definitely have a favorable advantage. Aside from the Broncos scoring the second-fewest PPG this season, they’ve committed the most turnovers on offense and secured the second-fewest first downs. Neither offense is churning out a high volume of plays, and with the under trending for the Broncos, I would anticipate that continuing this week.

On defense, we see a shift towards the Broncos statistically. Though they have allowed more PPG than the Panthers, they have allowed fewer total yards led by their top-10 pass defense. They’ve also allowed opponents to convert just 38.9% of third downs compared to 51.3% for the Panthers. The Broncos have also been more efficient in the red zone, allowing opponents to score just 47.7% of the time compared to 60% for Carolina.

This should be a pretty tightly contested game. Neither team gives you much confidence from a betting perspective, but I think there is enough to think that the Panthers can win it.

Final Prediction: Panthers win 23-20

Picks: Broncos +4, Under 46.5

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 42.5)

The Cowboys are averaging 22.3 PPG overall this season but just 18 PPG on the road.
The Bengals have allowed 25.7 PPG overall this season but just 19.3 PPG over the last three weeks.
The Bengals are averaging 19.8 PPG overall this season (fourth-fewest) and just 11 PPG over their last three games.
The Cowboys have allowed 32.8 PPG this season — most in the NFL.
The Cowboys are 4-1 straight-up in their last five games against the Bengals dating back to 2000.
The home team is 7-3 straight-up in matchups between these teams dating back to 1985.
The OVER is 7-5 for the Cowboys this season.
The Bengals are 7-5 ATS this season.
The Cowboys are 2-10 ATS this season — worst in the NFL.
Vegas has an implied total of 23-19.5 in favor of the Cowboys.
The public likes the Cowboys to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Bengals have run successful plays on 22.0% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — tied for second-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have pressured opposing QBs on 26.0% of passing plays this season — tied for 10th-best in NFL.
The Cowboys have averaged 402 yards from scrimmage per game (4,825 YFS / 12 G) this season — fifth-best in NFL. The Bengals have allowed an average of 396.3 yards from scrimmage per game (4,756/12) this season — eighth-worst in the NFL.

The Cowboys are coming off back-to-back blowout losses as they continue to have one of their worst seasons of all-time without Dak Prescott under center. They have lost six of their last seven games and failed to reach 20 points in each of those losses. The over has hit in each of their last three games, but the 42.5-point total in this matchup is the lowest we have seen in a game for them all season.

The Bengals are similarly awful this season and even more so without their franchise QB, Joe Burrow, under center. They have lost each of their last four games and seven of their last eight as well. They haven’t scored more than 17 points in each of their last four games and have been held to single digits twice during that span.

You can’t really trust the season-long statistics in a matchup like this where we have seen both teams play parts of their season with capable leaders and parts without. Both teams offer equally dreadful recent form as well. You don’t want to bet on this game, but I actually think the Bengals could upset here in an ugly game, and both defenses are bad enough to allow the over to hit.

Final Prediction: Bengals win 24-20

Picks: Bengals +3.5, Over 42.5

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins (O/U 49.5)

The Chiefs are averaging 30.8 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
The Dolphins have allowed 17.7 PPG overall this season (second-fewest) and just 10 PPG over their last three games.
The Dolphins are averaging 25.2 PPG overall this season but just 17.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Chiefs have allowed 21.2 PPG this season — tied for sixth-fewest.
The Dolphins are 9-3 ATS this season — best in the NFL.
The UNDER is 7-5 for the Chiefs this season.
The UNDER is 8-4 for the Dolphins this season.
The winner straight-up has also covered the spread in each of the last seven games between these teams.
Vegas has an implied total of 28.5-21 in favor of the Chiefs.
The public likes the Chiefs to win and cover with the over hitting.
Dolphins WRs have 126.2 receiving yards per game this season — third-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have averaged 135.5 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — second-best in NFL.
The Chiefs have a third-down conversion rate of 55.0% on 3rd and short this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Dolphins defense has allowed a third-down conversion rate of 55.0% when defending on 3rd and short this season — sixth-best in NFL.

The Chiefs are coming off their seventh win in a row as they beat the Broncos 22-16 last week. They haven’t been as dominant as usual as of late, with each of their last four games being won by less than one score. This has led to them failing to cover in each game during that span.

The Dolphins are coming off back-to-back wins against lowly opponents in the Bengals and Jets. They have won seven of their last eight games, with their only loss coming against the Broncos during that span. While the team has improved immensely compared to last season, they are somehow less intimidating of an offense with Tua under center. They continue to be led by a rock-solid defense.

Comparing stats states the obvious here. The Chiefs dominate in essentially every category. The script is flipped on defense, with the Dolphins having the stronger unit, but in reality, the Chiefs aren’t very far behind. They have allowed fewer passing yards per game and still rank sixth in points allowed per game. The Dolphins have been more stout both on third down and in the red zone.

This is a classic case of one of the league’s top offenses facing one of the top defenses. Given the underrated strength of the Chief’s defense and their elite offense, it’s easy to like them as a favorite, but with the way their games have been kept close, I would expect the Fins to cover as they often have.

Final Prediction: Chiefs win 27-23

Picks: Dolphins +7.5, Over 49.5

Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at New York Giants (O/U 45)

The Cardinals are averaging 27.7 PPG overall this season but just 22 PPG over their last three games.
The Giants have allowed 22.1 PPG overall this season and just 15.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Giants are averaging 19.2 PPG this season — third-fewest in the NFL.
The Cardinals have allowed 24.7 PPG this season.
The UNDER is 9-3 for the Giants this season — most in the NFL.
The UNDER is 8-4 for the Cardinals this season — tied for second-most in the NFL.
The Giants are 8-4 ATS this season — tied for second-best in the NFL.
The Cardinals are 5-7 ATS this season.
The Cardinals have won and covered with the under hitting in each of the last three games against the Giants dating back to 2014.
Vegas has an implied total of 23.2-21.8 in favor of the Cardinals.
The public likes the Cardinals to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Giants have thrown for 20+ yards on 26 of 395 attempts this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Cardinals allowed 20+ yards on 7.0% of attempts this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Giants has thrown for 1,088 passing yards in 5 games at home (217.6 YPG) this season — sixth-worst in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed 196.5 passing yards per game on the road this season — sixth-best in NFL.

The Cardinals are watching their playoff hopes slowly slip away as they’ve lost each of their last three games. They have managed to keep most games close still, but their 10-point loss to the Rams last week was their worst beating since back in Week 4 when they lost by 10 against the Panthers.

The Giants surprisingly have momentum on their side as they’ve won four straight. Three of those wins coming against NFC East opponents is very ho-hum, but a 17-12 win against the Seahawks last week was a shocker. They were 11-point underdogs coming into that game. It was a statement win from one of the most underrated defenses in the league this season. That defense has helped drive the under hitting this season. It has hit in each of the last four games and six of the last seven.

When comparing stats, we see what’s expected. The Cards have the advantage at basically every turn. A key matchup to watch is their top-five rushing offense going up against the Giants’ top five rushing defense. The Giants do not have the firepower that the Cards do when it comes offense, but the recent form between these teams has driven this to be a near pick’em when you could expect the see the Cards as much heavier favorites. As we saw last week, anything is possible, but I wouldn’t expect the Giants to pull off another huge upset this week.

Final Prediction: Cardinals win 23-20

Picks: Cardinals -1.5, Under 45

Houston Texans (-1) at Chicago Bears (O/U 45)

The Texans are averaging 24 PPG overall this season and 29.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Bears have allowed 23.7 PPG overall this season, but they’ve allowed 31.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Bears are averaging 20.5 PPG this season.
The Texans have allowed 26.9 PPG this season.
The Bears are 5-7 ATS this season.
The Texans are 4-8 ATS this season — tied for second-worst in the NFL.
The Texans are 4-0 all-time against the Bears.
The UNDER is 3-1 all-time in matchups between these teams.
Vegas has an implied total of 23-22 in favor of the Texans.
The public likes the Texans to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Bears have thrown the ball 62.0% of the time this season — tied for highest in NFL. The Texans have allowed 7.4 yards per attempt this season — fifth-worst in NFL.
The Bears have thrown the ball 62.0% of the time in the red zone this season — highest in NFL. The Texans have allowed a completion rate of 71.0% when defending in the red zone this season — third-worst in NFL.
The Texans have run successful plays on 37.0% of rush attempts this season — tied for worst in NFL. Bears have allowed successful plays on 36.0% of rush attempts this season — fourth-best in NFL.
Texans QBs have a 106.0 passer rating when scrambling this season — best in NFL. The Bears have allowed a passer rating of 82.1 when the opposing QB was scrambling this season — fifth-worst in NFL.

After stringing together back-to-back wins, including a blowout against the Lions on Thanksgiving, the Texans dropped a tough one against the Colts last week, 20-26. The offense is running on a skeleton crew right now, with Will Fuller’s PED suspension, Randall Cobb on IR and Brandin Cooks suffering yet another concussion. Luckily, they’ll face one of the coldest teams in the league, the Chicago Bears.

The Bears have now lost six straight. Their offense finally woke up against the porous Lions defense last week, tying their season-high scoring 30 points. Unfortunately, they allowed a season-high 34 points to the Lions. Not only are the Bears losing, but they’re also failing to cover the spread. They’ve missed it in each of their last four games and five of their last six.

When comparing stats, we see the Texans have a distinct advantage on offense. However, they’ve been one-dimensional this season as they rank second in passing yards and dead last in rushing yards. The Bears’ running game hasn’t been much better as they rank second to last. On defense, we see the Bears take the advantage. However, this isn’t the stout unit we have seen in the past, and if the Lions can put up 34 against them, anyone could beat them.

Despite the depleted offense, the Texans do give you a lot more to like here. If the Bears defense showed a better recent form, I could see them having a stronger advantage, but that’s just not the case.

Final Prediction: Texans win 23-21

Picks: Texans -1, Under 45

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) (O/U 52.5)

The Vikings are averaging 26.6 PPG this season.
The Bucs have allowed 23.3 PPG this season.
The Bucs are averaging 28.7 PPG this season — sixth-most in the NFL.
The Vikings have allowed 27.4 PPG overall this season but just 22.6 PPG on the road.
The OVER is 8-4 for the Vikings this season — tied for third-most in the NFL.
The OVER is 7-5 for the Bucs this season — tied for fourth-most in the NFL.
The winner straight-up has also covered the spread in each of the last 12 games between these teams, dating back to 1999.
The Bucs are 6-2 straight-up in their last eight games against the Vikes, but the Vikes have won the last two games.
Vegas has an implied total of 29.5-23 in favor of the Bucs.
The public likes the Bucs to win and cover with the over hitting.
Buccaneers WRs have 18 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for sixth-most in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 19 receiving touchdowns to WRs this season — second-most in NFL.
The Buccaneers have thrown the ball 62.0% of the time this season — tied for highest in NFL. The Vikings have allowed 7.2 yards per attempt this season — tied for seventh-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 18% of pass attempts this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Vikings have pressured opposing QBs on 21.0% of passing plays this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have scored on 45% of their drives this season — ninth-best in NFL. The Vikings defense has allowed scores on 45% of opponent drives this season — tied for sixth-worst in NFL.
The Vikings have run 43.0% of their offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for seventh-worst in NFL. Buccaneers have allowed their opponents to run 40.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for third-best in NFL.

The Vikings come into this having narrowly won back-to-back games against the Jags and Panthers. They have won five of their last six, with their one loss during that span being a head-scratcher against the Cowboys. The Bucs have consistently lost each of their last two games by a score of 24-27. They have now lost three of their last four and are hoping to pick up a least one win in the final game of this three-game homestand. They’re coming in fresh with a late-season bye on their side.

We see a lot of back and forth when comparing stats between these teams. The Bucs have scored more points, but the Vikings have accumulated more total yards led by their strong rushing attack. The Vikings have averaged more yards per play and controlled time of possession more than the Bucs. The Vikes have also been more efficient on both third downs and in the red zone but by just a slight margin.

A key to this game is going to be turnovers. The Vikings are top-five in the league in committing turnovers, while the Bucs defense ranks top-three in forcing them. The Bucs rush defense is also the best in the league, eliminating the Vikings’ biggest offensive threat.

At the end of the day, the Bucs give you more reasons to like them here, but it’s not a lock. While the Vikings are among the toughest teams to trust in betting, I would take them to cover here.

Final Prediction: Bucs win 27-23

Picks: Vikings +6.5, Under 52.5

Tennessee Titans (-9) at Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 52.5)

The Titans are averaging 29.9 PPG overall this season (third-most) and 36.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Jaguars have allowed 29.3 PPG this season — fourth-most in the NFL.
The Jaguars are averaging 20.9 PPG overall this season but just 17.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Titans have allowed 27.2 PPG this season.
The OVER is 9-2-1 for the Titans this season — most in the NFL.
The Titans are 8-2 straight-up in their last 10 games against the Jaguars.
The home team is 8-2 straight-up in the last 10 games between these teams.
Vegas has an implied total of 30.8-21.8 in favor of the Titans.
The public likes the Titans to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Titans have averaged 400 yards from scrimmage per game (4,804 YFS / 12 G) this season — seventh-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed an average of 422.8 yards from scrimmage per game (5,074/12) this season — worst in the NFL.
The Titans have rushed for 1,813 yards this season — fifth-most in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 1,667 yards rushing this season — third-most in NFL.
The Titans have thrown for 7.9 yards per attempt this season — seventh-best in NFL. The Jaguars have allowed 8.0 yards per attempt this season — worst in NFL.
The Titans have scored on 46% of their drives this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Jaguars defense has allowed scores on 47% of opponent drives this season — fourth-worst in NFL.
The Titans have run 49.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for seventh-best in NFL. Jaguars have allowed their opponents to run 52.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for second-worst in NFL.
Jaguars RBs have averaged 2.5 yards after contact per carry this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. The Titans have allowed 2.3 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — tied for sixth-worst in NFL.

We get a divisional tilt here between the first-place Titans and the last-place Jaguars. The Titans won the first matchup between these two earlier this season, 33-30. The Titans are coming in sore after getting demolished 35-41 by the Browns last week. While they picked up some points later in the game, anyone who watched that game knows it wasn’t at all close. Before that, they had strung together two solid wins against the Ravens and Colts.

The Jags played the Browns much closer, recently losing by just two points in their matchup two weeks ago. They also lost by just three against the Vikings last week. Despite these closer games, they still haven’t managed a win since Week 1 as their losing streak extended to 11 games.

When comparing stats, we see the obvious, with the Titans having a big edge on offense. Their defense has been better at times this season as well, but the gap is smaller there. The Jags have actually been a stronger team on defense when defending against third downs and in the red zone this season.

You have to like the Titans to win here as they strive for another late-season playoff push, but I’m not sold on them covering. They only won by three against the Jags earlier this season and showed a lot of flaws last week.

Final Prediction: Titans win 28-21

Picks: Jaguars +9, Under 52.5

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) (O/U 47.5)

The Jets are averaging 15 PPG this season — worst in the NFL.
The Seahawks have allowed 26.8 PPG overall this season but just 18.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Seahawks are averaging 29.4 PPG overall this season (fourth-most) but just 21 PPG over their last three games.
The Jets have allowed 29.4 PPG this season — third-most in the NFL.
The Jets are 4-8 ATS this season — second-worst in the NFL.
The Seahawks have won and covered in each of their last three games against the Jets.
Vegas has an implied total of 30.5-17 in favor of the Seahawks.
The public likes the Seahawks to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Seahawks have thrown for 3,479 passing yards in 12 games (289.9 YPG) this season — fourth-best in NFL. The Jets have allowed 291.0 passing yards per game this season — second-worst in NFL.
Seahawks WRs have 202.0 receiving yards per game this season — sixth-best in NFL. The Jets have averaged 195.8 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — third-worst in NFL.
The Seahawks have averaged 407 yards from scrimmage per game (4,879 YFS / 12 G) this season — third-best in NFL. The Jets have allowed an average of 407.8 yards from scrimmage per game (4,894/12) this season — sixth-worst in NFL.
The Seahawks are 8-2 (.800) when scoring 22 or more points this season — tied for eighth-best in NFL.

There’s no chance the Seahawks will lose to a crappy team from New York. That’s exactly what we said last week, and look what happened. This game wouldn’t have warranted much consideration before last week and not just because the Seahawks lost to the Giants. The Jets had a win in the bag until the last second against the Raiders as well. That’s the second game this season where the Jets lost thanks to a last-second play.

Despite the oddities of last week, any respectable process will tell you the same thing this week. There’s no chance the Jets win this, but there is potential for them to cover. They have covered in three of their last four games, and this is the second-largest spread they have been given this season.

Final Prediction: Seahawks win 28-17

Picks: Jets +13.5, Under 47.5

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 50.5)

The Colts are averaging 27.3 PPG this season.
The Raiders have allowed 28.9 PPG overall this season and 35.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Raiders are averaging 26.9 PPG overall this season but just 22.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Colts have allowed 22.8 PPG overall this season, but they’ve allowed 32 PPG over their last three games.
Both teams are 7-5 ATS this season.
The OVER is 8-3-1 for the Raiders this season.
The OVER is 7-5 for the Colts this season.
The OVER is 4-1 in the last five games between these teams.
Vegas has an implied total of 26.5-24 in favor of the Colts.
The public likes the Colts to win and cover with the under hitting.
The Colts have run 16.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. Raiders have allowed their opponent to run 18.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for worst in NFL.
The Colts have 13 rushing touchdowns in the red zone this season — tied for eighth-most in NFL. The Raiders have allowed 19 rushing touchdowns in the red zone this season — most in NFL.
The Raiders have thrown for 20+ yards on 38 of 400 attempts this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL. The Colts allowed 20+ yards on 10.0% of attempts this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.

The Colts are coming off a big divisional win last week against the Texans. They have won three of their last four games, with their loss being in blowout fashion against the Titans. The Colts are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive.

The Raiders nearly became a cautionary tale last season as it took every second of that game for them to come away with a win against the Jets. The Raiders have been all over the place this season, making them tough to predict. They beat the best team in the league (Chiefs) then almost lose to the worst team. Before last week, they also lost to the Chiefs and Falcons, so their recent form is highly questionable. They’re expected to get some playmakers back from injury this week, so maybe that rights the ship a bit.

These teams are very identical when comparing offensive stats. They rank 10th and 11th in points per game. The Colts have the slight edge, ranking 13th in total yards but the Raiders aren’t close behind, ranking 15th. The Colts have been better at protecting the ball as they’re top-five in fewest turnovers. The Raiders have been more efficient on third down, converting 48.7% of the time compared to 36.8% for the Colts.

Where we see the biggest edge in this matchup is on defense. The Colts remain a top-10 defensive unit. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest total yards to opponents compared to the Raiders, who rank 22nd. The Colts defense has also been great at limiting opponents’ number of plays, ranking fourth-best in that category.

I think our best indicator here is a combination of the difference between each team’s recent form and the Colts having a big advantage on defense. That’s enough for me to like them to win as well, but it’s not a lock.

Final Prediction: Colts win 28-24

Picks: Colts -2.5, Over 50.5

Green Bay Packers (-9) at Detroit Lions (O/U 55)

The Packers are averaging 31.6 PPG this season — most in the NFL.
The Lions have allowed 29.8 PPG this season — second-most in the NFL.
The Lions are averaging 23.8 PPG overall this season but just 19.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Packers have allowed 24.9 PPG this season.
The OVER is 8-4 for the Lions this season.
The OVER is 7-5 for the Packers this season.
The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these teams.
The Packers are 8-4 ATS this season — tied for second-best in the NFL.
The Lions are 5-7 ATS this season.
The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Packers.
Vegas has an implied total of 32-23 in favor of the Packers.
The public likes the Packers to win and cover with the over hitting.
The Packers have run 16.0% of their offensive plays in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. Lions have allowed their opponent to run 17.0% of plays in the red zone this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.
The Packers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 16% of pass attempts this season — tied for second-best in NFL. The Lions have pressured opposing QBs on 21.0% of passing plays this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.
The Packers have run 50.0% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL. Lions have allowed their opponents to run 50.0% of plays in their territory this season — tied for fifth-worst in NFL.
The Packers are 9-2 (.818) when scoring 22 or more points this season — tied for sixth-best in NFL.
Lions QBs have a 76.6 passer rating when scrambling this season — seventh-best in NFL. The Packers have allowed a passer rating of 106.5 when the opposing QB was scrambling this season — third-worst in NFL.

The top-scoring offense in the league vs. the team allowing the second-most points per game. What could go wrong? Imagine how good the Packers would be if they actually showed up to the rookie draft before the season, too. They have won four of their last five games, and even in their most recent loss to the Colts, they still put up 31 points. Their last two wins aren’t super glorious against weaklings like the Bears and Eagles, but either way, the Pack is cruising. They beat the Lions earlier this season easily, 42-21.

The Lions became the most recent team to boot their head coach and find success quickly thereafter. With Matt Patricia’s thick body out of the way, the Lions knocked off the Bears, 34-30. It was just their second win over their last six games.

The stats are pretty clear-cut here. The Packers are the far superior team on both sides of the ball. We could see another big-time blowout here.

Final Prediction: Packers win 33-23

Picks: Packers -9, Over 55

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at LA Chargers (O/U 49.5)

The Falcons are averaging 25.9 PPG this season.
The Chargers have allowed 28.8 PPG overall this season and 33.3 PPG over their last three games.
The Chargers are averaging 23.1 PPG overall this season but just 17 PPG over their last three games.
The Falcons have allowed 25.2 PPG overall this season but just 17 PPG over their last three games.
The road team has won each of the last three games between these teams.
The Falcons are 6-2 straight-up in their last eight games against the Chargers dating back to 1988.
The UNDER is 7-1 in matchups between these teams dating back to 1988.
The OVER is 7-5 for the Chargers this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 26-23.5 in favor of the Falcons.
The public likes the Chargers to win and cover with the over hitting.

We get a matchup between two teams that are basically just playing for pride at this point in the season. The Falcons lost to the Saints for the second time in the last three weeks last week, 16-21. In between those losses, they dropped 40 points on the Raiders in a blowout victory, so it’s tough to gauge what their recent form really looks like. We have seen the under hit in each of their last three games and five of their last six.

The Chargers were two-point favorites against the Pats last week but were a complete no-show. They lost spectacularly, giving up 45 points and scoring exactly zero. It was their second loss in a row and their fifth loss in their last six games. The only team they’ve managed to beat during that span is the Jets. They also have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games.

We get a lot of back-and-forth with the stat comparison in this one. The Falcons have scored more points per game, but the Chargers have accumulated more total yards of offense, ranking seventh in the NFL. We should see a fast-paced game here, with both teams ranking top three in the total number of offensive plays per game. The Chargers have been more efficient on both third downs and in the red zone this season.

On defense, we see more back-and-forth. The Falcons have allowed fewer PPG but give up more total yards. Their passing defense ranks second-worst in the league while the Chargers are second-best.

This is probably one of the tougher games to peg for this week, with these teams looking nearly identical. I think the Falcons do give you slightly more reason to like them as the favorite, but it’s really close.

Final Prediction: Falcons win 28-26

Picks: Chargers +2.5, Over 49.5

New Orleans Saints (-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 43)

The Saints are averaging 28.9 PPG this season.
The Eagles have allowed 25.6 PPG this season.
The Eagles are averaging 21.1 PPG overall this season and 16.7 PPG over their last three games.
The Saints have allowed 20.1 PPG overall this season (fourth-fewest) but just 9.3 PPG over their last three games.
The OVER is 7-5 for the Saints this season.
The UNDER is 8-4 for the Eagles this season.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five games between these teams.
The Saints are 7-5 ATS this season.
The Eagles are 4-8 ATS this season — tied for second-worst in the NFL.
The Saints are 5-1 straight-up in their last six games against the Eagles.
Vegas has an implied total of 25-18 in favor of the Saints.
The public likes the Saints to win and cover with the under hitting.
The Saints have 20 rushing touchdowns this season — most in NFL. The Eagles have allowed 17 rushing TDs this season — tied for third-most in NFL.
The Eagles have gone three and out on 26% of their drives this season — tied for worst in NFL. Saints have forced three and outs on 23% of opponent drives this season — tied for third-best in NFL.
The Eagles have been successful on 40.0% of plays they have run this season — fourth-worst in NFL. Saints have allowed their opponents to be successful on 39.0% of plays this season — tied for second-best in NFL.
The Eagles have run 40.0% of their offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. Saints have allowed their opponents to run 38.0% of plays in their territory this season — best in NFL.
The Eagles have thrown the ball 55.0% of the time in the red zone this season — tied for seventh-highest in NFL. The Saints have allowed 18 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — tied for third-most in NFL.
The Saints have thrown for 20+ yards on 28 of 390 attempts this season — tied for third-worst in NFL. The Eagles allowed 20+ yards on 8.0% of attempts this season — tied for fifth-best in NFL.

This game feels a lot more lopsided than the seven-point spread suggests. The Saints have won nine in a row. They’ve covered in each of their last five games with the under hitting in each of the last five as well. Their defense has been on an absolute tear and hasn’t allowed more than 16 points in a game in each of their last five games. They’ve held three of those teams to single digits.

The Eagles have new hope with rookie Jalen Hurts set to make his first start under center. He has a tall task ahead of him with the way the Saints defense has been playing. The Eagles haven’t been able to get a win or score more than 17 points in each of their last four games.

I’ll take the Saints all day here, but I do like the potential Jalen Hurts gives this Eagles team for the remainder of the season.

Final Prediction: Saints win 28-17

Picks: Saints -9, Over 43

Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers (-3) (O/U 43)

Washington is averaging 22 PPG overall this season and 28 PPG over their last three games.
The 49ers have allowed 24 PPG this season.
The 49ers are averaging 23.8 PPG this season.
Washington has allowed 21.7 PPG overall this season but just 14 PPG over their last three games.
The 49ers are 5-1 SU in their last six games against WFT.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five games between these teams.
The UNDER is 7-5 for WFT this season.
WFT is 7-5 ATS this season.
The 49ers are 5-7 ATS this season.
Vegas has an implied total of 23-20 in favor of the 49ers.
The public likes the 49ers to win, but Washington to cover with the over hitting.

Washington is riding higher than any team in the league this week after their huge upset against the previously-unbeaten Steelers. Alex Smith wins all the awards, praise, and medals in the world, returning from his injury to even play. But to play well on top of that is truly amazing. The team has won three in a row now, bringing serious momentum to this matchup.

The 49ers do not have momentum. They have lost four of their last five and just can’t get right (or healthy) this season.

We see some back and forth when comparing stats for this matchup. On the season, the 49ers have the edge offensively while Washington has provided a better defense. Things look different on offense as of late, though, with Smith under center, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see their hot streak continue.

Final Prediction: Washington wins 23-21

Picks: WFT +3, Over 43